bet365 Women’s World Cup Game Day: Norway Desperate To Avoid Early Exit (July 30)

3:00 a.m. Headliner: Norway vs. Philippines

There is no team that needs a massive game more than the Norwegians do on Sunday. Norway were expected to be a slam dunk to cruise through the group stages, originally pegged at -334 to win Group A, -2000 to qualify, and +1000 to miss out. It was practically unfathomable that they didn’t push forward, especially with their top end scoring talent. Yet here we are, heading into Match Day 3, seeing the side winless and goalless through the first two games.

Yet, there’s still quite a bit of hope for them. The Philippines shocked the world with a win over New Zealand, but are still seen as an extreme underdog and a mismatch for the Norwegians if they can get into form in time for to face them. Even with everything that’s gone on, a 2-0 or 3-0 win for Norway remains the exact score with the shortest odds as a result (+450) – with 4-0 bet boosted from +650 to +700. You know that Norway is going to be playing aggressively for that total too, as a win doesn’t actually guarantee them advancement out of the group. If Switzerland beats New Zealand, a win will be enough, but a draw would require Norway to win by at least two to jump over the host Kiwis, and if New Zealand win, Norway will have an uphill battle to catch up to Switzerland, who enter the day up three on goal difference.

Of course, we can’t rule out the Filipinas just yet, given that win against New Zealand and the momentum that comes from that. Should they win this game, they’ll finish a minimum second in the group. Should they draw, they’ll need a Swiss win to advance.

The books favour almost all of Norway’s players on the goal scoring props over the Philippines players. Ada Hegerberg leads the way with +162 first/last scorer odds and -275 anytime odds, with Sophie Haug and Emile Haavi not far behind. The leading bet for the Philippines belongs to Sarina Bolden, who scored on their only shot on target on Tuesday – she’s +2000 for the respective first/last goal bets and +600 for any anytime goal.

Personally, as fun as the Philippines holding on against New Zealand was, and as much as Norway has underwhelmed on the scoresheet, I can see this being the game where the dam breaks in both regards and Norway gets the goals they need to squeak through, just in time for knockouts.

Norway to Win in Full Time

-167

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12:30 a.m. Match: South Korea vs. Morocco

Despite this Group H game still being part of the second match day on paper, the odds of it having serious implications for the knockout stages are slim to none. Both teams are already in deep holes with South Korea having already lost 2-0 to Colmbia, and Morocco having lost 6-0 to Germany. The best case that either of them can hope for is a win over the other, and a draw in the later game between the two teams that beat them.

Since they’re playing first, though, there will be hope to be held going to it, which should mean a game played at full tilt. With that in difficult not to look to South Korea as the heavy favourites in this one, maybe even to a greater degree than the current posted odds imply. Even in defeat, the squad did pick up three quality shots on target and kept the possession game somewhat even (42%), compared to the 25% share that Morocco mustered up against the Germans. Morocco typically tries to play a defensive counter-attack game and Germany were quickly able to open them up and run the show from the eleventh minute on, even forcing two Moroccan own goals.

If South Korea is to set the tone in this one, Hawa-yeon Son is a quality option to pick for the first goal – the WK League striker has boosted odds to be the icebreaker with her +500 prop bumped up to +550. Eun-Sun Park leads the South Koreans with the best overall odds for finding the back of the net, sitting at +400 for first or last goals and +150 for a goal at any time. Morocco’s best bet comes with Rosella Ayane, who plays her club football for Tottenham. She’s sitting at +750 for the first or last goals respectively, and +300 to score any time.

South Korea to Win in Full Time

-154

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3:00 a.m. Match: New Zealand vs. Switzerland

While our focus is on the former Group A favourites Norway and how they dig themselves out of a whole, the outcome of this game will shape what scenario they need in that game to climb over one of these two teams, and for added excitement, they play at the same time! Both games will be played in New Zealand, with Norway/Philippines being played in Dunedin while the co-hosts face Switzerland in Auckland. They’ll have a home crowd behind them and they’re going to need it, with points a must to stay out of of danger.

Switzerland have the edge here in a lot of different ways. The six-spot gap in the FIFA World Rankings (20 vs. 26) will jump out most obviously to the average person, as will the fact that they’ve yet to concede a goal in this tournament, putting up clean sheets in their 2-0 win against the Philippines and 0-0 draw with Norway. That’s a trend they hope they can continue against the Kiwis, who scored in a surprise tournament over against Norway but were blanked in their second game.

Nevertheless, it won’t be an easy fight with New Zealand knowing what’s at stake and not wanting to have ended up wasting their inspiring win to open the tournament. The outcome with the shortest odds available to it is a 1-0 Switzerland (+450) win or a 0-0 draw (+550), but the likes of Hannah Wilkinson (+750 first/last goal, +300 anytime goal), and Paige Satchell (+850 first/last, +350 anytime) look to rewrite expectations once more. Most likely to score in this match, however, is Swiss forward Ramona Bachmann, who has +400 first/last odds and +150 anytime odds.

If you’re looking for a boosted bet or a same game parlay, bet365 has one that checks both boxes – over 1.5 shots on target for Bachmann, over 0.5 for fellow Swiss forward Ana Crnogorcevic, and a Swiss win at +550, up from +500.

Switzerland to Win in Full Time

+110

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5:30 a.m. Match: Germany vs. Colombia

Last on the fixture sheet we have a game that will clear up a lot about the top half of Group H. Similar to the Group A games playing into each other, this one plays into the previously-discussed Switzerland-Morocco game, albeit in a less impactful way given the padding these two teams have built up already. This will be more direct, impacting mostly themselves which one will win the group and which will advance. Yes, it could get interesting for one team with the right pair of scores – most likely a heavy Germany win here and a heavy South Korea win over Morocco – but it would be a lot to ask.

Germany comes in with a well-tuned offensive group after a 6-0 win over Morocco. Two of their goals were opposing own goals, but that’s still a good sign for the pressure they were putting up, and the likes of Alexandra Popp (x2), Klara Buhl, and Lea Schuller will be feeling confidence from their goals as well. Germany finished that first game with a commanding 75% of the possession, imploding the Morocco counter-attack before it could start. For Colombia, it was a pair of goals late in the first half that set things apart from them, with Catalina Usme converting a penalty in the 30th minute and Linda Caicedo adding insurance in minute 39.

The consensus here is a comfortable Germany win – one such bet available for those who agree with that is another goal for Popp and three total goals in a Germany win as a Boosted Same Game Parlay (+300, up from +275). Popp is the favourite to score in this game with first and last goal odds each set at +300, and anytime odds set at -125. Schuller is also sitting in the minuses for an anytime goal at -110. The odds-on expectation is that Caicedo will be Columbia’s player to look to once again, with +1600 odds for the first or last goal, and +500 odds for an anytime goal.

Look to Germany to ultimately gain control of this game, with the margin of victory dictating whether we’re having a bigger discussion about South Korea in a few days.

Germany to Win in Full Time

-450

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