bet365 Women’s World Cup Game Day: Canada Needs Points Vs. Ireland (July 26)

8:00 a.m. Morning Headliner: Canada vs. Republic of Ireland

To call this a must-win game for Canada is an understatement. Our ladies in red opened up their tournament last Thursday to much excitement, and just couldn’t deliver against Nigeria.

Yes, there were some positives – they controlled 68% of the possession, their passing game was much better, they drew a penalty, and a few players like keeper Kailen Sheridan, wingback Ashley Lawrence, and midfielder Quinn had strong games. But the team managed to turn all of that into just three shots on target, Christine Sinclair missed the drawn penalty kick, and there were stretches in the middle where Nigeria controlled play. The 0-0 draw that ensued has now made it absolutely crucial that Canada win their next two games to have a shot at taking the group, and taking at least three or four more points to ensure they advance out of the group stage. The odds still favour them to do so at -300, but the results need to match up now.

The good news is that their opponents, Ireland, had an even rougher start, getting run around and defeated by Australia in their debut, controlling just 37% of the possession and taking just one shot on target. Canada couldn’t have a better schedule order in this regard, getting an opportunity to bounce back here before taking on a confident Matildas squad.

On the boosted bet front, there are a few interesting options. Sinclair getting redemption and striking first in this game sits at +375, up from +350. A same-game parlay, which features 2+ total goals and Adrianna Leon getting one of them in a Canada win, is at +450, up from +400. For individual scorers, Sinclair has the shortest odds at +130 anytime, but Evelyne Viens and Cloe Lacasse sit behind her at +187 and +210, respectively. For Ireland, the shortest odds are on Amber Barrett and Kyra Carusa, who both sit at +1200 for the first/last goal, or +500 to score anytime.

If you think Canada can win this with another clean sheet – certainly possible with a stingy two-way effort and more excellence from Sheridan, you can get them blanking Ireland – win or draw – at -125.

Canada to Win in Full Time

-163

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9:00 p.m. Evening Headliner: United States vs. Netherlands

After starting off the tournament with one of the most lopsided spreads you’ll see this year, the United States have a closer, very important game in Group E action.

Their near-sure win against Vietnam was easily accomplished, with the U.S. outshooting their opponents 28-0 (7-0 on target) and holding two-thirds of the possession. Yet, there was still still a feeling of underachievement, even from the U.S. players and captain Alex Morgan, who was stopped on a penalty kick that was part of a list of failed executions that caused this to be just a 3-0 win.

Being upset with a 3-0 win is a champagne problem, but not so much when you still have your main group opponent ahead of you, and don’t have much gap time before you face them. The Netherlands will be their biggest challenger in this group stage and the main threat for the first seed, fresh off the heels of a 1-0 victory over Portugal on Sunday. The gap in play there was also bigger than the gap on the scoresheet, and that’s arguably more impressive here given that Portugal was a more formidable opponent in relative terms. Stefanie van der Gragt scored the first Dutch goal at the 13-minute mark, and they never looked back.

Nevertheless, the Americans remain favourites here, even with them starting a little worse than expected and the Netherlands starting a little better. This group stage match is a rematch of the 2019 Women’s World Cup final, which the USA won 2-0 backed by two second-half goals. Both scorers from that game are on this year’s team and have odds for repeating their magic – Megan Rapinoe is +200 to score anytime, while Rose Lavelle is +275. If you want to bet on their scorers from the Vietnam game, brace-scorer Sophia Smith sits at +137 anytime and +375 to score first, while Lindsey Horan is +275 anytime. Sunday’s goalscorer, van der Gragt, is far from the Netherlands’ most likely player to score again, at +1600 anytime – Lieke Martens at +300 is the name to look at.

An interesting boosted same-game parlay to look at is the recovery arc. Specifically, USA gets their form together and wins a game with 2+ total goals scored, and Alex Morgan gets the goal she couldn’t convert in the first game. You can get this at +350, up from +320.

United States to Win in Full Time

-143

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1:00 a.m. Match: Japan vs. Costa Rica

The early games on Wednesday are both Group C matchups, and once again, they’re set up for blowouts, with the two top contenders swapping minnow opponents. Japan comes in hot off a 5-0 win over Zambia, where it look a little bit of time for them to crack through the counter-attack, but once they did, they became a freight train. Japan scored their first goal in the 43rd minute courtesy of Hinata Miyazawa, who would also score the second of their next three goals in a 15-minute downpour early in the second half. Riko Ueki added a penalty in the 11th (!!) minute of second-half stoppage time.

Costa Rica, on the other hand, were extremely fortunate to not get blown out by even more than they were on Friday. They conceded an unfathomable 46 shots over the 90-minute match, though “only” 12 landed on target. They had just 19% of the possession, conceded 22 corners, and one of the three goals they conceded was a Valeria del Campo own goal. Even the plus sides, like them not going offside once during the game, can be credited to not having the ball.

Needless to say, this game could get really, really out of hand, especially now that Costa Rica has to win it to maintain any chance at getting out of groups. The goals over feels like a bit of a lock at -211, and if you think Costa Rica’s urgency leads to them also being on the scoresheet (with a goal on the correct net), you can get both teams to score at +300. Realistically, though, your safest bets are likely on the Japan goal scorers, with Maika Hamano, Mina Tanaka, and Riko Ueki all sitting at -163 for anytime goals, Remina Chiba sitting at -150, and Miyazawa to repeat her magic at -105.

Japan to Win 4-0 over Costa Rica (Boosted)

+550

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3:30 a.m. Match: Spain vs. Zambia

Much like the 1:00 a.m. match, this is another case of a powerhouse swapping in a new punching bag.

For Spain, they were the ones who hammered Costa Rica with the 46-shot, 81% possession-dominant effort. They only scored two goals of their own via Aitana Bonmati Conca and Esther Gonzalez, but those and the Costa Rican own goal, all achieved in a six-minute span, were really all that were needed from an execution standpoint. Barring an all-time upset in either of these morning games, this group will be decided by the Japan/Spain game next Monday. Goal differential could matter if that ends up a draw, though, so building on that conversion rate couldn’t hurt.

Zambia’s pathway to being a dark horse was supposed to be simple – play tight defensively, eke out a counter-attack, and hope that players like Barbra Banda could sneak you a goal or two. This strategy was not successful against Japan, as it led to 25 shots and 11 shots on target against, and not one going the other way. Zambia will have to figure out if there’s an adjustment in either strategy or execution that they can make to have a better chance at it this time around. Otherwise, the hype of an above-expectation tournament will be gone before it started.

If you think Zambia can find a goal amidst this game, it’ll likely come from Banda, who is boosted for an anytime goal at +850, up from +800. Otherwise, the expectation is all Spain, all the time. One same-game parlay being offered by bet365, for example, is Spain winning by six goals while Esther Gonzalez pots two of them, which is at +900 up from +800. Gonzalez (-450 anytime) has the shortest odds of any potential Spanish goalscorer, with nine players having negative odds.

Spain to Win both Halves vs Zambia

-900

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