The final-round drama of EURO 2024’s group stage continues on June 24 with a pair of deciders in Group B.
Spain, on six points from wins over Italy and Croatia, have already secured their spot in the Round of 16, but the rest, including upstarts Albania, who have added a mischievous wrinkle to an already challenging group, have some work to do.
3:00 p.m. ET Headliner: Italy vs. Croatia
| Italy Win | +137 | Croatia Win | +240 | Draw | +240 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -110 | Under 2.5 Goals | -111 | Broadcast | TSN |
It’s desperation time for a pair of regular contenders on the European stage. Croatia, runners-up at the 2018 FIFA World Cup and third place finishers more recently at the 2022 edition in Qatar, enter the final match day with just a single point, sitting in fourth spot in the group by dint of Albania’s superior goal difference.
The 3-0 defeat to Spain on the second day of the competition is the root of that problem, but the Checkered Ones were unable to do themselves the favour of beating Albania when the two went head-to-head, drawing 2-2 after the Albanians took the lead in the 11th minute through Qazim Laci, Croatia would nervously not find a response until the 74th minute when Andrej Kramaric equalized. An own goal off Klaus Gjasula looked to ease their concerns, only for the Albanian midfielder to make amends at the other end, scoring a dramatic 95th-minute goal.
Zlatko Dalic and his experienced side will know what must be done and there have been glimpses of their capabilities in both matches, but now their backs are against the wall. Croatia has not failed to emerge from the group stage at a major tournament since 2014.
The defending champions Italy fared a little better in their clash with Albania, scoring twice after falling behind inside the first minute, but then lost 1-0 to Spain in their second outing with a Riccardo Calafiori own-goal the margin. On three points, a draw will likely suffice for the Azzurri.
Already famed more for their defending than goalscoring, there are not a lot of goals in the squad Luciano Spalletti gathered. Nicolo Barella, who scored the game-winner against Albania – his 10th on the international stage – leads the way. That reduces the margin between victory and defeat, as the result against Spain evidenced.
There have been some high-profile clashes in Germany, but none yet has had the drama that this one promises. Croatia has not lost in the last seven matches against Italy, the last three encounters ending level, but the two have not met since 2015. This one is not to be missed.
Game Bets To Consider
- Italy is a slight favourite at +137 to Croatia’s +240 heading in, but honestly, this one can go either way. However, the underlying numbers have something to say about the respective chance creation for each side. With an xG of 4.7 through two matches, Croatia has created the most/best chances of any team at EURO 2024. Even Germany, who have scored seven goals, have amassed just 3.4 xG – Croatia has one goal. Italy, on the other hand, has a combined xG through 180 minutes of just 1.7 – they have scored two. There is a risk of reading too much from that in a tournament’s small sample size. That said, there is some value in looking at the Over/Under Total Goals for both sides. Croatia Over 1.5 sits at +162 (Over 2.5 +480), while Italy Under 0.5 comes in at +290.
- Bruno Petkovic accounts for 1.1 of that xG himself, but none of his three shots have been on target. He is one of three Croatians, including Kramaric, who has scored their only goal thus far, with the shortest odds to score (Anytime +280, First +825, Last +825).
Bet on Italy vs. Croatia
ITA +137
CRO +240
Other EURO 2024 Games On June 24
Spain vs. Albania, 9:00 p.m. ET
Albania has been one of the more intriguing stories to follow in Germany. Drawn into a group along with the illustrious trio of Spain, Italy, and Croatia, little was expected of the Red and Blacks, but the stature of the opposition has mattered little to Sylvinho and his squad.
The Albanians scored inside the first minute against Italy before getting pulled back in their opener and then repeated that feat against Croatia, taking the lead early and then salvaging a draw late to earn their first point at EURO 2024. Albania will be in tough to advance, but a win over Spain would further stamp their impact on the competition and throw more chaos into an already complicated sorting out of Group B.
Spain has had a perfect start so far. A flurry of three goals at the end of the first half against Croatia secured victory in the opening round, and though La Roja needed an own-goal to collect all three points in a hard-fought match against Italy, the Spanish were seldom truly troubled on the day. Spain are one of the two remaining nations in Germany yet to concede, France is the other.
Luis de la Fuente has made just one change to his starting eleven across the two matches, so he might be tempted to rotate with a spot in the knockout stages already in hand, but he will be well aware that taking Albania lightly comes with peril. To go deep in tournaments, teams need to navigate many issues, and building momentum must be balanced with allowing the depth of the squad to sample the action. Sides can recover from early upsets, but must be ready to step up the intensity once the win and move on/lose and go home matches arrive.
Game Bet To Consider: Spain are obvious favourites in this one, and though an enhanced odds Correct Score (Multiple)—(1-2), (1-3), or (1-4) at +370 catches the eye, Albania have scored in both their matches so far. Considering the upsets the Albanians have already produced, a sprinkle on them to get a result (Tie +370) or even win (Albania +610) will be rewarded handsomely.
| Away Team |  | Draw | | Home Team | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | +137 | +240 | +245 | Croatia | 3:00 PM |
| Albania | +610 | +370 | -200 | Spain | 3:00 PM |
Latest EURO 2024 Futures Odds
Here are the latest EURO 2024 Futures odds, heading into the matches on June 24:
| Team | | Yesterday | Team | | Yesterday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | +400 | +400 | Portugal | +550 | +600 |
| Germany | +400 | +400 | Netherlands | +1600 | +1600 |
| England | +500 | +500 | Italy | +1900 | +1900 |
| Spain | +500 | +500 | Belgium | +2400 | +2900 |
There has been little movement with the top four—France, Germany, England, and Spain—remaining stable, but two results from June 22 have seen odds for two of the longer shots shift. With their 3-0 win over Turkey, Portugal jumped up slightly to +550, while Belgium reaped the benefit of a strong second match, beating Romania 2-0 to move up to +2400.
