EURO 2024 Gameday Odds (July 1) – Who of France, Belgium Will Snap Into Form?

Germany and Switzerland became the first teams to advance to the quarterfinal stage at EURO 2024 with their wins over Denmark and Italy, respectively. Two more nations will join them on Sunday when England face Slovakia and Spain square off against upstarts Georgia.

After Tuesday’s results, the entire field will be set for the next round, but Monday’s docket features the tastiest fixture of the lot: France against Belgium. Portugal will look to rebound from that shocking defeat in their final group-stage match.

12:00 p.m. ET Headliner: France vs. Belgium

France Win	-108	Belgium Win	+410	Draw	+220
Over 2.5 Goals	+120	Under 2.5 Goals	-154	Broadcast	TSN

It’s fair to say France has underwhelmed in Germany. Les Bleus were tipped as one of the teams to watch at EURO 2024, but their results thus far have not impressed. Yes, they advanced from Group D unbeaten with a win and two draws, conceding just once through the three matches, but the much-vaunted attack has yet to spark. Their only two goals came from an own goal and a Kylian Mbappe penalty kick.

That said, the two-time champions remain a force to be reckoned with. Didier Deschamps’ side is creating chances and has tons of experience at major competitions. Though an exit at this stage of EURO 2020 against Switzerland on penalty kicks is fresh in the mind, they are still expected to make a deep run in the competition. It just hasn’t quite clicked yet. There is merit to having a strong display at the group stage, but the point of the group stage is to emerge from it, plain and simple. Now that France has done that, the question becomes, can they rise to the occasion as the best teams do? Monday against Belgium in Dusseldorf may be the kind of fixture that sees the real France emerge.

Belgium’s trek through the group stage was similarly troubled but came as less of a surprise. On the comedown from a once-thought golden generation, the Red Devils have failed to live up to their billing one too many times for expectations to be raised. Though plenty dangerous through the group stage, the final action has been lacking. Domenico Tedesco’s side scored just twice through the three matches, both in their only win over Romania and advanced out of Group E, where all four teams finished on four points, as the second-place side.

The Belgians have reached the quarterfinal stage at the last two EUROs, losing to Wales at EURO 2016 and eventual champions Italy at EURO 2020, but with France standing between them and the next round, repeating that feat may be a bridge too far.

This will be the 76th all-time meeting between the two nations. The record is relatively even (France 26 wins, Belgium 30) and remains so when focused on the seven matches since 2000 (France 3 wins, Belgium 2). The French have won the last two, both semifinal clashes – 3-2 in 2021 at the UEFA Nations League and 1-0 at the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia – and all four meetings at major tournaments.

Game Bets To Consider

• France are significant favourites on the day, but given their form coming in and that Belgium are a capable opponent the line is more narrow than one would have anticipated had the French been living up to expectations. For a little added value on a France victory, look to Game Result/Both Teams to Score: France/Yes is at +335 and France/No sits at +190.
• The only goal the French conceded came from the penalty spot, and Belgium struggled to turn opportunity into reward, but with a spot in the next round on the line, it could go either way. There is a same-game parlay of Belgium Over/Under Corners – Over 4.5, Score Anytime – Romelu Lukaku, and Belgium Shots on target – Over 3.5 that catches the eye at +850. Lukaku has the fifth-highest xG at EURO 2024 (1.7), and Belgium has averaged nearly seven corners and almost six shots on target per match. They will have less of the attacking play against France, but those are still achievable numbers, and the parlay still allows for a victory for France, although Lukaku will need to finish one of his chances for it to come good.

3:00 p.m. ET Headliner: Portugal vs. Slovenia

Portugal Win	-256	Slovenia Win	+900	Draw	+385
Over 2.5 Goals	-108	Under 2.5 Goals	-114	Broadcast	TSN

After the opening two rounds of group-stage action, Portugal was en route to staking its claim as a serious contender at EURO 2024. A nervy win over the Czech Republic grew into a 3-0 dismantling of Turkey, but with top spot in Group F already secured, that momentum for A Selecao came to a screeching halt in the final match with that stunning 2-0 defeat against Georgia. Just how Roberto Martinez’s side will respond remains to be seen.

Portugal’s track record at the EUROs has been excellent. Stretching all the way back to 1996 only once in the last seven editions have they failed to reach at least the quarterfinal stage. Of note, that failure was at EURO 2020, where as defending champions they were knocked out at the Round of 16 by Belgium. Monday against Slovenia in Frankfurt will reveal if that was a one-off or a reason for concern.

Knockout round football will be new ground for Slovenia. Playing in just their fourth major tournament since the dissolution of Yugoslavia, the Slovenians had never before progressed past the group stage. Matjaz Kek’s side emerged in third place from Group C on the back of three straight draws and did so with a very particular brand of football.

Slovenia had the least possession of any side in Germany, with just 33.3% throughout the group stage, yet conceded just twice. England had some 73% in their scoreless draw. The Slovenians are comfortable without the ball; that will come in handy against the Portuguese, who averaged the second-most through the group stage, behind only Germany.

The two sides have met just once previously—a March 2024 friendly in Ljubljana, which Slovenia won 2-0.

Game Bets To Consider

• Portugal is a heavy favourite in this one, but a look at the Winning Margin can provide some added value to that expected result. Portugal winning by exactly two goals sits at +305, whereas Portugal winning by three or more goals comes in at +285.
• Betano is offering a same-game parlay of 1st Half Result—Portugal, Portugal Over/Under Corners—Over 6.5, and Score Anytime—Bruno Fernandes at +700. Portugal will be eager to make their mark off the back of that Georgian result, so a quick start might be in the cards. Corners are a by-product of possession, and the Portuguese will have the lion’s share – they have averaged more than eight corners per 90 in Germany thus far, and Fernandes is already off the mark with his goal against Turkey.

Latest EURO 2024 Futures Odds

Here are the latest EURO 2024 Futures odds, heading into the matches on July 1:

Team		Yesterday	Team		Yesterday
England	+375	+400	Portugal	+650	+650
Germany	+400	+450	Netherlands	+1400	+1100
Spain	+500	+450	Switzerland	+1400	+2900
France	+600	+550	Austria	+1700	+1700

Germany’s Round of 16 win over Denmark saw them jump back level with England at the top, while Italy is off the board with its defeat to Switzerland. France and Portugal have dipped slightly ahead of their forays into the knockout round, and the Swiss, with their impressive 2-0 win, have leapt into the running at +1400.