Saturday marked the dramatic end to the 2024 MLS regular season, in a tradition known as “Decision Day.” 28 of the league’s 29 teams were scheduled for one last game day (sorry, Toronto FC, you were the odd men out this year) to decide final playoff positioning and matchups for the week ahead. In the end, two of Canada’s three teams (sorry again, Toronto FC, you were…) find themselves in playoff position, beginning their postseason with wildcard games this week. Here’s what CF Montreal and the Vancouver Whitecaps are up against, along with a look at who stands in their path en route to what would be the first-ever MLS Cup championship for either team.
October 22nd – Atlanta United vs. CF Montreal Odds
For both of these two Eastern Wildcards, Saturday was a pretty tense evening. Montreal qualified through triumph, winning 2-0 over New York City FC to punch their ticket. In Atlanta’s case, it was more complicated – they needed to win, and they needed the Philadelphia Union to lose their game against FC Cincinnati. By a score of 2-1, they got both, winning over Orlando United and cheering on their newfound friends in Ohio to get to this stage.
Montreal faces a solid challenge in Atlanta, though they are far from the team that burst onto the scene and re-wrote the rules for an expansion team’s talent level out of the gate, starting strong in 2017 and winning a championship in their third season. Interestingly enough, their star player, Josef Martinez, is on the other side of this matchup as one of Montreal’s goal-scorers in Saturday’s affair. Since joining the team, the 31-year-old Venezuelan has scored 11 goals and added three assists in 23 games – an improvement from his previous year with Inter Miami, where he took a secondary role to the wave of all-time legends who joined them.
The two sides played each other just two weeks ago, with Montreal coming out on top by a 2-1 score. Sure enough, both of their goals came off Martinez’s boot. Montreal has six wins and a draw in their last seven games, perhaps hinting at a team getting hot at just the right time.
Atlanta hasn’t fared too poorly either, with points in five of their last six. Ultimately, we’d give the edge to Montreal here, between their better form, the storyline behind Martinez, and having home field advantage.
Bet on CF Montreal vs. Atlanta United FC
October 23rd – Portland Timbers vs. Vancouver Whitecaps Odds
On the West Coast, the Whitecaps are missing many of Montreal’s advantages. For one, despite having a home-field advantage on paper, scheduling has them conceding it. In a headline that feels too ridiculous to be true, World Supercross is already occupying BC Place, so the Cascadian rivals in Portland will get an advantage that they didn’t earn by word of the standings.
Nevertheless, anyone who has been paying attention to the Whitecaps of late will tell you that they haven’t earned their advantage either. Unlike CF Montreal’s late-season hot streak, Vancouver are full-on hobbling into the playoffs, having lost their last four MLS games and lacking a win in league play since September 14th. It’s a streak that couldn’t have come at a worse time, extended yesterday in a 2-0 loss against Real Salt Lake. Making matters worse is that Vancouver had a lead going into the 73rd minute, conceded an equalizer, and then scored an own goal to flip the game in the wrong direction completely.
Portland hasn’t fared much better, with their last win coming on September 18th—though four of their five results have been draws, including against the Whitecaps. In that last affair between the two teams, Vancouver picked up a 1-0 lead just three minutes in, but conceded an equalizer to Jonathan Rodriguez before the first half closed.
It’s hard to pin a specific result down here—neither team has been controlling games of late, and the rivalry factor will likely make things more chaotic on Wednesday. Look to Ryan Gould to be a factor for Vancouver. The scorer of their lone goal on Saturday, Gould has been the team’s most reliable offensive contributor.
While both teams have identical odds to win the MLS Cup should they get out of this game, the books are leaning on the Timbers to win on Wednesday, given their better form and unexpected home-field advantage.
Bet on Timbers vs. Whitecaps
Miami Leads Way In MLS Cup Futures
| Team |  | Team | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Inter Miami | +150 | 5. Seattle Sounders FC | +1600 |
| 2. Los Angeles Galaxy | +350 | 6. FC Cincinnati | +2000 |
| 3. Columbus Crew | +650 | 16. Vancouver Whitecaps | +10000 |
| 4. Los Angeles FC | +700 | 17. CF Montreal | +15000 |
To the surprise of no one, Inter Miami has the shortest odds of winning it all. Lionel Messi is clearly back to good health following his injury in the 2024 Copa America, showing it yesterday with a casual hat trick in 30 minutes of play. Luis Suarez, Jordi Alba, and Sergio Busquets have kept the mini-Barca dream alive, along with a solid support core by MLS standards beneath the already star-studded team. Miami cruised to the Supporters Shield in the regular season, winning 22 games and drawing 8, losing just four times in 34 games. A healthy Messi has only improved their odds, tightening from +175 in August to +150 today.
Beneath them, the best odds to win currently belong to the LA Galaxy, who lost to Houston on Saturday but won four of the previous five, and the Columbus Crew, who are the defending champions and have won three straight going into the playoffs. Both have climbed up the ranks in the past few weeks, moving past Los Angeles FC, who have slipped to fourth.
As for our Canadian Friends, they rank far behind, as is to be expected with the wildcard matchups. The Whitecaps, who sat at the 7th-shortest odds to win just two months ago, have plummeted from +2000 to +10000 as a result of their losing streak, which has necessitated the extra wild card game and the lack of home field along the rest of the way. CF Montreal slips from +10000 to +15000 but improves from the 19th-best to 17th-best odds. How does that work? The field is now 18 instead of 29, so in relative terms, they’re closer to the bottom despite being higher up. Needless to say, both teams have got their work cut out for them.
