The 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump, survived a harrowing assassination attempt over the weekend that left the world stunned. Not only did Trump defy death and become a “quasi-religious figure” in the Republican Party (if he wasn’t already), he also became what most betting maestros would call a “lock” to win the 2024 US Presidential Election (once again, if he wasn’t already).
The Republican nominee’s odds are currently being offered at -275 at bet365, which means the bookmakers imply that former President Trump has a 73.3% chance of winning. On the heels of President Joe Biden’s missteps, many people, not just bookmakers, are saying this is all but Trump’s election to win.
Donald Trump to win 2024 U.S Presidential Election
-275
Presidential Betting Odds 2024: The odds be damned
There was a time, not too long ago, before Trump announced his 2024 presidential bid in late 2022, when the former “Leader of The Free World” could be had at odds, sometimes exceeding +400.
A Canadian bettor strongly believed in Former President Trump’s chances of winning a second term in the White House and bought into Trump for nearly $10,000 over a 16-month period.
“I treated it like a savings fund,” Josh Lucca told Canada Sports Betting. “After every week, I would put a bit more on him, and slowly, his odds started to go down.”
Lucca told CSB that he continued to bet on Trump until the odds went into the negative. After that, he stopped betting.
When CSB asked Lucca if he would consider hedging his bet by backing the Democratic nominee, whether that be the incumbent President Biden or otherwise, he said he would most likely not.
Lucca said he believes in Former President Trump’s ability to unite the nation after his near-death experience and win the voters in the swing states.
Some pundits who share Lucca’s views may point to historical data when making their cases for Trump. The most notable talking point for those people was President Ronald Reagan’s 1984 U.S. Election victory over Democratic nominee Walter Mondale. One that came after an attempt on Reagan’s life in 1981, which garnered admiration for Reagan from the American populace.
Obviously, Reagan’s re-election bid was shaped in a different era and under different circumstances, which can lead the naysayers to point out that this argument is oxymoronic in nature. Also, Reagan didn’t lean into the rhetoric that divided the nation but instead tried to unite it, leading to a landslide victory when it came time for voters to hit the polls in 1984.
Is Trump a lock?
According to William Spaniel, an associate professor in the University of Pittsburgh’s Department of Political Science, despite the belief that Former President Trump will triumph in November after this past weekend’s events, not much has changed.
In his recent YouTube video, Professor Spaniel explains that he understands the “rally around the flag effect” (in this case, a person) could be in full play. In theory, Trump looks like a strong survivor to voters on both sides of the aisle, especially with the photo of him standing tall and fighting off the Secret Service after nearly being killed. In fact, there are studies that could back the theory up. Not to mention, there’s a recent precedent with Jair Bolsonaro, a controversial far-right politician, winning the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election a month after getting stabbed and getting some extra support on the ballots.
Professor Spaniel argues that the issue with the case for Former President Trump’s 2024 chances is that Biden is the incumbent President. In times of crisis, voters would rather stick with the status quo to “minimize disruptions.”
Let it not be forgotten: Theodore Roosevelt faced a similar situation in 1912. After his run as the 26th President of the United States, Roosevelt essentially left politics. He didn’t like how things were going and wanted back into the White House, dividing the Republican Party as a result.
On Oct 14, 1912, Roosevelt nearly met his end after being shot through the chest but was saved by the paper containing his speech. Although Roosevelt made a lot of fans by continuing his speech, becoming seemingly ironclad to the nation, it wasn’t enough to propel him to victory. He lost the 1912 election to Democratic nominee Woodrow Wilson.
The question of the Democratic nominee
Some Trump bettors might argue that historical precedent be damned, the Democrats don’t have a Woodrow Wilson on their hands. Incumbent President Joe Biden looked awful, in the eyes of his Democratic peers, against Former President Trump in their debate on the 2024 election trail. Many, rightly or wrongly, have questioned President Biden’s cognitive ability, especially after his time at the NATO Summit. For Pete’s sake, the New York Times Editorial Board asked President Biden to step out of the race “to serve his country.” Heck, some of the biggest donors to the Democratic Party are actively lobbying for Mr. Biden’s running mate and current Vice President, Kamala Harris, to move ahead of him on the bill.
Nevertheless, Biden remains steadfast in his desire to be the Democratic nominee. Eventually, those in his party will “circle the wagons” if Reagan’s favourite speechwriter, Ken Khachigian, is to be believed. The betting markets think that, too.
In the post-debate mayhem, many bookmakers changed their odds to put Vice President Harris ahead of President Biden in the presidential betting markets. Vice President Harris was offered at +350 and +400, while President Biden hovered around +600.
After the markets reopened following the assassination attempt on Former President Trump’s life, most books, such as bet365, offered President Biden around +400. Vice President Harris’ odds have gone to around +1000. Some sportsbooks, including FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings, decided to suspend their betting markets on the presidential race in Ontario following the assassination attempt. However, odds are still available at many European-based online sportsbooks.
When Professor Spaniel made his YouTube video, he projected that, at the time (the odds have changed slightly), Former President Trump had a 65.9% chance of winning the 2024 Presidential Election, followed by President Biden at 16.4%, Vice President Harris at 8.9%, and the rest of the field at 8.8%.
Bet365’s latest odds imply that President Biden’s chances have improved slightly, with him at 20%. Vice President Harris has increased ever so slightly to 9.09%, but once the DNC has come and gone, it should be a match race between Former President Trump and incumbent President Biden.
According to ABC’s data-driven FiveThirtyEight, the National Polls see Former President Trump ahead of President Biden by 2.2% as of July 15, 2024, in the said “match race.”
Realistically speaking, bettors who are cheering wholeheartedly for the now-confirmed Republican nominee would love to see the gap grow to a higher number. That said, for those who are contemplating laying some coin on President Biden before the polarized markets shift in his favour if he becomes the Democratic nominee, +400 is very tempting.
Come Election Day, the only polls that matter are the results. If President Biden can have a resurgence in his campaign and win over voters in some of the swing states, as he did in 2020, there’s no one saying he can’t take the 2024 Presidential Election.
