The time for talk is over. The 165th King’s Plate is just mere days away from stealing horse racing’s grand stage and dazzling tens of thousands of people watching all around the globe. This year’s spectacle boasts a 13-horse field that looks very competitive on paper, even if there’s a short-priced favourite stealing the spotlight from the rest of the pack. Although this short-priced favourite deserves his billing, we’ll look at the rest of the field and give our best bets for the $1 million Grade 1 race.
Before that, let’s meet some of the “standouts” who will most certainly take the bulk of the betting action come Saturday.
Trainer Mark Casse was dealt a strong hand after Tuesday’s post draw for the 165th running of the King’s Plate (Gl) at Woodbine Racetrack. His top contender, My Boy Prince, drew post #7 and was installed as the 7-5 morning line favourite by the oddsmakers. Essex Serpent, another one of Casse’s surprise standout horses, drew the #3 post and was installed as the second shortest price on the board at 2-1.
Canadian horse racing fans will promptly say, Don’t forget about Kevin Attard, and we shall not. His barn will be well represented with four horses in the King’s Plate. The best of the bunch is Caitlinhergrtness, who drew post #4 and is being listed as 12-1.
How about trainer Harold Ladouceur? His horse Rafaroo drew post #2 and was given a morning line price of 6-1, which is slightly shocking considering what the three-old is up against.
As it always is with horse racing, these morning lines are purely speculative and aren’t indicative at all of how the betting will go. Nevertheless, the morning lines, as brought to you by bet365 via a partnership with Woodbine Entertainment Group, are a good starting point.
Below, you can get a look at the rest of the field. FYI, if you’re new to playing the ponies, head on down to our explainer page to get learnt before the big race:
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The field for the 165th King’s Plate at Woodbine Racetrack
| Post Position | Horse | Odds | Jockey | Trainer |
| 1 | Jokestar | 20-1 | Emma-Jayne Wilson | Kevin Attard |
| 2 | Rafaroo | 8-1 | Ryan Munger | Harold Ladouceur |
| 3 | Essex Serpent | 2-1 | Patrick Husbands | Mark Casse |
| 4 | Caitlinhergrtness | 12-1 | Rafael Manuel Hernandez | Kevin Attard |
| 5 | Midnight Mascot | 10-1 | Kazushi Kimura | Mark Casse |
| 6 | Friendly Ghost | 30-1 | Justin Stein | Evette Chartrand-Hoek |
| 7 | My Boy Prince | 7-5 | Sahin Civaci | Mark Casse |
| 8 | Pierre | 20-1 | David Cohen | Kevin Attard |
| 9 | Thor’s Cause | 50-1 | Jeffrey Ian Alderson | Krista Cole |
| 10 | Bedard | 30-1 | Pietro Moran | Kevin Attard |
| 11 | Roar of the Crowd | 50-1 | Fraser Aebly | Dominic J. Polsinelli |
| 12 | No More Options | 30-1 | Daisuke Fukumoto | Zeljko Krcmar |
| 13 | Vitality | 20-1 | Jose Campos | Harold Ladouceur |
Some Background on The Favourite in The King’s Plate
For those who aren’t super familiar with horse racing, My Boy Prince would draw comparisons to Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears. He’s an amazing horse with great potential and has impressed everyone throughout his young career. The morning line favourite is coming into the King’s Plate riding a three-race winning streak, including his most recent triumph in the Plate Trial Stakes.
In all of his races, My Boy Prince has stalked the pace and was always positioned well. Jockey Sahin Civaci, who’s basically the best rider in Canada right now, has told the media in the past that he has a good feel for the horse. That’s going to mean something because the King’s Plate is going to be a different animal.
There’s a ton of talk that most riders aren’t going to let My Boy Prince get comfortable out there. Of course, what else would you expect the ops to say here? The fact of the matter is, like it or not, Civaci will be able to adjust to whatever situation is put in front of him. If you go back to My Boy Prince’s two-year-old season, that would be his rookie year; he could adjust on the fly, even in the races he lost. That showed on the past performance forms and the replays because My Boy Prince finished better than most other horses would’ve in the spots he was in.
Hands down, My Boy Prince is the horse to beat, and when it’s all said and done, he’ll probably be the winner. That said, the 7-5 morning line “price suggestion” isn’t going to hold. At least, that’s the way it looks now. We anticipate My Boy Prince will go off at 1-1 odds or +100 in American odds. He could go even lower, which, for most veteran horseplayers, makes the play a bit too chalky.
Other Contenders/”Wiseguy” Horses
Canada Sports Betting has been doing the rounds talking to the wiseguys after Tuesday’s post-position draw. Most of the wiseguys concur that My Boy Prince is the most likely winner who will “probably romp the field.” That said, there are a ton of people who have been pointing towards a horse who hasn’t even gotten a victory in his career.
That horse is #2 – Rafaroo, who’s priced at 8-1 on the morning line. What the wiseguys seem to like about Rafaroo is his second-place performance in the Plate Trial Stakes. Yes, that’s the race My Boy Prince won, but only by a length and a half, which isn’t a huge gap.
It’s true that Rafaroo is a lightly raced horse who will be asked to do something crazy in only his third career start. HOWEVER, many wiseguys believe that he’s ready to take that next step, and this race might set up well for him.
Unlike My Boy Prince, Rafaroo likes to close late. IF, and this is a BIG IF, My Boy Prince stalks the pacesetter throughout the race, and that pacesetter, whoever they may be, sets some fast fractions, My Boy Prince might not have enough gas to sustain himself during the stretch drive. This leaves what one bettor called “AN ENORMOUSLY MASSIVE GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY” for Rafaroo to close late and snatch the victory away from the post-time favourite.
That makes sense, but what about #5 – Midnight Mascot, #8 – Pierre, #9 – Thor’s Cause, and #13 – Vitality? Those horses are all bonafide closers who will be going off at much larger prices. Not to mention creating a logjam for Rafaroo at the end of the race, especially if he’s stuck riding the rail.
The argument then became that Rafaroo would be somewhat more forwardly placed and have the jump on them. With him starting on the inside, he’ll need to break well to get that position, but a few wiseguys tried to ensure CSB that having to ride the rail might not be the most terrible thing for Rafaroo. “He’ll get a hole late,” one told CSB. “You watch; once it opens, look out.”
Okay, we hear them, but what about #3 – Essex Serpent? How will he factor into things? The wiseguys aren’t sold on the 2-1 morning line choice. Most think he’s already done his best running and will not have the stamina needed to handle the extra distance in the King’s Plate, especially if he runs similarly to his previous races.
The only other horse to get a bit of respect from the wiseguys is #4 – Caitlinhergrtness. A lot of the wiseguys love her pedigree, with Omaha Beach being her sire and Giant’s Causeway being the dam’s sire. “She has a lot of horse in her,” one said. For whatever reason, the horse’s bloodline has bettors giddy, and to be honest, if she can take that next step in this race, she could be right there at the end. At least, that’s what some are saying. She’s looked okay so far and will have jockey Rafael Manuel Hernandez on her back. If there’s someone that can bring a “longshot home,” it’s Hernandez.
Our King’s Plate Best Bet
Alright, look, we don’t like eating chalk, and that’s what a bet on My Boy Prince entails. The thing is, an average race from My Boy Prince beats a lot, if not all, the horses in the field. All Civaci has to do is ensure that the horse breaks well and takes it easy through the first quarter of a mile. After that, if Civaci chooses to push the pace, My Boy Prince SHOULD be fine enough to sustain his pace and hold onto the lead during the last furlong or so.
On the other hand, almost every other horse, minus Essex Serpent, will need a bunch of things to go right. Plus, on top of everything going right, those horses will have to run the best race of their careers. Now, that is a lot to ask. We’re not saying it can’t happen, but damn, it’s going to be hard.
If we did go against the favourite, we’d happily take Rafaroo to upset. There’s a universe where everyone forces My Boy Prince to run some early fast fractions to stay close to the pace and be in his ideal position coming into the home stretch. That type of gamesmanship can tire a horse. It’s a gamble for the other jockeys setting the pace because their horses won’t be able to sustain the pace. Nevertheless, it opens the race up for a closer. AND HERE COMES RAFAROO.
Rafaroo shouldn’t be too far back where he’ll have too much distance to make up. It also doesn’t hurt that the “wiseguys” seem to like his chances of building on his previous performances. Who knows, maybe being lightly raced might play in Rafaroo’s favour? It’s not like all the pressure is on him to perform.
If he shows up, great. If not, no biggie. Men with nothing to lose will stop at nothing to win.
KING’S PLATE BEST BETS: We’ll put two units on a WIN BET for the #7 – My Boy Prince if his post-time odds are 1-1/+100 odds or better. We’ll also put 1 unit on a WIN BET for #2 – Rafaroo, as we believe he can pull off the upset IF he gets some pace to chase.
Just to remind y’all again, if you do wager on this year’s King’s Plate, please do so responsibly.
