Team Canada remains undefeated through two games of the men’s Olympic basketball group stage following their victory over Australia. They currently lead their group and have secured their place in the quarterfinals. However, various scenarios could potentially see Canada drop from their top position to third place in the group standings.
If Spain defeats Canada and Australia defeats Greece, there will be a three-way tie at the top of the Group A standings with each team having five points each. For ties involving three or more teams, the tiebreaker will start with the highest point differential in games between the tied teams. Here are the possible scenarios for Canada:
- Canada will finish first in the group if they beat Spain or if Australia beats Greece and Canada loses to Spain by seven points or less
- They will finish second if Spain beats them and Greece beats Australia, or if Australia beats Greece and Canada loses to Spain by nine or 10 points
- Canada will finish third if Australia beats Greece and Canada loses to Spain by 12 or more points.
Bet on Canada vs. Spain
CAN -9.5
ESP +9.5
Spain began their campaign with a loss to Australia but rebounded with a win against Greece in their second game. Despite this, Spain’s path to the quarterfinals hinges on their next match, as they are now in a must-win situation. If Spain can secure a victory against Canada, they will advance to the next round, keeping their hopes alive in the tournament. Here are the possible scenarios:
- Spain will qualify for the Olympic basketball quarterfinals if they beat Canada. They will finish first in the group if they beat Canada and Greece beats Australia, or if Spain beats Canada by 15 points or more and Australia beats Greece.
- Spain will finish second if they beat Canada by 12 or 13 points and Australia beats Greece.
- They will finish third if they beat Canada by 10 points or less and Australia beats Greece, or if Canada beats Spain and Greece beats Australia by one point or by 18 or more points, or if Canada beats Spain and Australia beats Greece.
- Spain will finish four if Canada beats Spain and Greece beats Australia by three-to-16 points.
Let’s look at the betting odds on both teams for this upcoming matchup.
Canada vs. Spain betting odds
| Canada Moneyline Odds | -500 |
| Spain Moneyline Odds | +375 |
| Over/Under | Over 169.5 points (-110), Under 169.5 points (-110) |
| Spread | Canada -9.5 (-110) |
| Time/Date | Aug. 2, 11:15 a.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: CBC Stream: CBC Gem |
All odds courtesy of 
About Canada (2-0)
RJ Barrett played a pivotal role in Canada’s 93-83 victory over Australia, leading the team with 24 points. In addition to his scoring, Barrett contributed seven rebounds, five assists, and made a trio of three-pointers. His performance throughout the Olympics has been remarkable for its consistency. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dillon Brooks also made significant contributions, each scoring 16 points. Shai added four rebounds and three assists, while Brooks hit two three-pointers and secured three rebounds.
Contrarily, Jamal Murray has struggled during the Olympics, managing only five points on 2-of-7 shooting (29%) and 1-of-5 from three-point range (20%). For Canada to advance deep into the tournament, Murray will need to elevate his performance and provide a more impactful contribution.
For Australia, Josh Giddey was the standout performer, leading the team with 19 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. Canada’s current struggle with their lack of a dominant big man was evident as Jock Landale took full advantage, delivering a double-double with 16 points and 12 rebounds, thanks to his dominance in the paint. Looking ahead, Spain may present the toughest challenge Canada will face in the group stage, as they possess significant size and physicality that could exploit Canada’s current weaknesses.
About Spain (1-1)
In a hard-fought game against Greece, Santi Aldama led Spain’s 84-77 victory with a standout double-double performance, scoring 19 points and grabbing 12 rebounds. Sergio Llull contributed significantly with 13 points and three three-pointers, while Willy Hernangomez added 11 points and seven rebounds, with most of his points coming from free throws.
On the Greek side, Giannis Antetokounmpo continued his remarkable form, delivering a double-double of 27 points, 11 rebounds, and three assists. Despite his impressive performance, Greece fell short of securing the win. Spain now faces the challenge of defending against Canada’s dynamic duo of RJ Barrett and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in their crucial upcoming must-win game.
Injury concerns
- Spain national team veteran Rudy Fernandez is questionable for the following Olympic Games matchup against Canada due to a contusion suffered in the match against Greece.
Player props to play
- Santi Aldama over 17.5 points (-125): Aldama has emerged as one of the standout players of the Olympics, delivering impressive performances with 27 points in his first game and 19 points in his second. Given Canada’s current lack of a dominant big man, Aldama is expected to continue his strong form and take full advantage of the opportunities in the paint. His ability to exploit this matchup could be a significant factor in Spain’s upcoming game against Canada.
- RJ Barrett over 18.5 points (+105): Barrett is having a spectacular showing in the Olympics, consistently putting up impressive numbers in each game. He scored 23 points in the first game and followed up with 24 points in the second. Given his recent form and consistent scoring ability, it would not be surprising if Barrett comfortably surpasses his points total in this one.
- Dillon Brooks over 1.5 threes (-150): Brooks has been exceptional in his three-point shooting, consistently taking a significant volume of shots and converting them with accuracy. He cleared this line in both of his friendly games, and during the match against Greece, he hit three out of four attempts from beyond the arc. In the game against Australia, Brooks made two three-pointers. Given his current form and shooting precision, Brooks has a strong chance of surpassing this line once again in the upcoming game against Spain.
RJ Barrett (CAN) over 18.5 points
+105
Canada vs. Spain predictions
- Spain +9.5 spread: -110. Spain is a team characterized by its size and physicality, which poses a significant challenge for Canada, who relies on a small-ball approach. With the game being a do-or-die situation for Spain, they are unlikely to allow Canada to achieve a double-digit blowout. Spain will likely use their size and strength to counter Canada’s style of play and keep the game competitive, ensuring a tough contest until the final whistle.
- Over 169.5 total points: -110. Canada is renowned for its strong defensive capabilities, but they may face difficulties in containing Spain’s offensive prowess. Given the high-scoring nature of both teams, this game is expected to be a high-scoring affair, likely surpassing the line of 169.5 points. The match promises to be a dynamic and high-paced game with elimination on the line for Spain.
