We’re less than a week away from the 2024 Paris Summer Olympic Games, a spectacle that will offer bettors a change of pace from the dog days of baseball wagering during the low season on the sports betting calendar.
The Games officially open on July 26, although some events, such as soccer and rugby, actually begin their respective competitions a few days earlier, on July 24.
So, how will Canada fare in Paris?
Online sportsbook operator NorthStar Bets has set the over/under on Canada’s overall medal count at 21.5 (over -155, under +110), with the line set at 5.5 for gold medals (over -134, under -106). The Canadian team earned 24 medals (seven gold) at the last Tokyo Games, the second-highest total its ever recorded at the Summer Olympics.
The latest Olympic medal projections from Nielsen’s Gracenote, which analyzes the results from various world championships, World Cups, Grand Prixs, and other notable competitions in order to predict the medal winners for all 329 events in Paris, have Canada earning 20 overall medals – six gold, nine silver, and and five bronze. That number has since dropped to 19 after Pierce LePage (projected to get a silver medal in decathlon) dropped out due to injury.
Canada to win under 21.5 medals at the 2024 Olympics
+110
Surprisingly, the projections don’t have Canada’s men’s basketball team winning a medal. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Co. have the second-shortest odds (+900 at NorthStar Bets) behind the USA to claim the gold medal and are coming off a bronze performance the recent FIBA Basketball World Cup.
The projections also don’t have the Canadian women’s soccer team reaching the podium despite being the reigning Olympic champions in the event. In fact, the Canadian women have only the eighth-shortest odds (+2000) to win gold and just +300 odds to win Group A behind France (-225).
Sprinter Andre De Grasse, perhaps one of the most recognizable Canadian Summer Olympians with six medals already to his credit, isn’t projected to add to his individual medal total in 2024. The reigning gold medalist in the men’s 200m is a +1500 longshot to defend his title at NorthStar Bets, with four other sprinters having shorter odds. His odds are even longer in the men’s 100m competition, listed at +2500, behind seven other sprinters. However, the Canadian men’s 4x100m relay team, which will include De Grasse, is projected to win a silver medal at these Games. Odds aren’t yet posted for this event, though.
Who’s projected to win gold?
- Summer McIntosh – women’s swimming: McIntosh is projected to win two gold medals in Paris in the women’s 200m butterfly (-182 odds at NorthStar Bets) and 400m individual medley (-2500 at NorthStar Bets) competitions. She’ll also be competing in the 400m freestyle (+275 odds) and 200m individual medley (no odds yet). She narrowly missed the podium at the Tokyo Games in two competitions (400m freestyle and 4x200m freestyle relay) with a pair of fourth-place finishes. However, she earned four medals, two gold and two bronze, at the 2023 FINA World Aquatics Championships.
- Damian Warner – men’s decathlon: The 34-year-old is the reigning Olympic champion in this event after he became just the fourth man ever to break the 9,000-point mark in the decathlon. He also earned a bronze medal at the 2016 Games. Warner finished second at the 2023 world championships behind fellow Canadian Pierce LePage, who won’t compete in these Olympic Games due to injury. Odds aren’t yet posted for this event as of Friday morning, but stay tuned in the coming days.
- Marco Arop – men’s 800m: Arop finished 14th in this event at the Tokyo Games, but the 25-year-old is coming off a win at the 2023 world championships. He’s the world’s top-ranked runner in this event, but he came in a disappointing sixth place in a Diamond League event earlier this month in Monaco. NorthStar Bets has Arop with only the fourth-shortest odds (+1200) to win gold, so there’s some value on him here assuming he can quickly return to his dominant form.
- Christa Deguchi – women’s 57kg judo: Deguchi is the reigning Commonwealth Games champion (2022) in this discipline and she claimed a silver medal in both the 2024 IJF World Championships and the 2024 Pan American Championships. NorthStar Bets has her listed as the favourite for gold in Paris (-200 odds).
- Philip Kim – men’s breaking: The 2024 Olympics will introduce the sport of breaking, also known as break dancing or b-boying in this case, and Canada has a legit gold medal threat in this discipline. Kim, who goes by the alias B-Boy Phil Wizard, is the reigning Pan American Games champion and he earned silver honours at the WDSF World Championships in 2023. Unfortunately, Canada Sports Betting can’t find any betting markets for the event at the time of publish.
- Tammara Thibeault – 75kg women’s boxing: Thibeault is actually projected to win silver in this discipline, but the odds suggest otherwise. She’s the favourite with +100 odds at NorthStar Bets to capture gold. Li Qian from China has the next shortest odds at +400. Thibeault is the reigning Commonwealth Games (2022) champion and Pan American Games (2023) champion.
