This week’s breakdown of the NHL betting market is powered by NorthStar Bets.
Connor Bedard Calder Trophy Update
Personally, I didn’t see any reason to bet against Connor Bedard winning the Calder Trophy back in January when we learned that he would be out long term. Bedard was already seen as a virtual lock to win the award at -500, but every sports talk show made up reasons why Brock Faber or Luke Hughes was in the running because they needed something to talk about. Now, here we are some 10 weeks later, and Bedard is now a -2500 favourite to win the Calder Trophy after putting up six goals and 14 assists in 15 games since his injury. The next best rookie has 15 fewer points than Bedard.
Updated NHL Betting Trends (March 19)
Now that more than 80% of the regular season has been played, we’ve got quite a big sample size of data to work with. The table below provides a look at the NHL through the lens of some of the most popular betting markets.
Team Money Leaders
The Central Division has dominated the NHL from a betting perspective this season. For starters, St. Louis remains the most profitable moneyline bet in the NHL, and it’s not particularly close. Now, the Blues have been a decent bet on the road, but they’ve done most of their good work on home ice, going 21-12 straight-up for +12.07 units. Nashville has also been profitable, but only as the road team. The Predators haven’t been a great bet at home, but they’ve gone 21-13 as the road team for +9.47 units and 18 of their road wins have come in regulation, which has worked out to a profit of +13.61 units. Winnipeg’s been the most profitable regulation bet, though, as they have accumulated 38 regulation wins for a total of +14.29 units. For easy comparison, I’ve included each team’s profitability in both moneyline (overtime included) and regulation betting in the table below.
| Team | Away ML $ | Away Reg $ | Home ML $ | Home Reg $ | Total ML $ | Total Reg $ |
| STL | $2.59 | -$3.87 | $12.07 | $13.51 | $14.66 | $9.64 |
| NYR | $2.75 | $1.86 | $6.62 | $9.04 | $9.37 | $10.89 |
| NSH | $9.47 | $13.61 | -$0.86 | -$2.13 | $8.61 | $11.48 |
| VAN | $4.32 | $7.59 | $4.14 | $6.40 | $8.46 | $14.00 |
| FLA | $7.16 | $13.25 | $0.85 | -$0.33 | $8.01 | $12.92 |
| WSH | $5.17 | $10.65 | $2.65 | $2.30 | $7.82 | $12.95 |
| WPG | $4.20 | $4.50 | $3.12 | $9.79 | $7.32 | $14.29 |
| PHI | $5.95 | $6.16 | -$0.77 | -$1.78 | $5.18 | $4.38 |
| DET | -$0.47 | -$8.86 | $2.97 | $2.74 | $2.50 | -$6.12 |
| COL | -$5.47 | -$7.71 | $7.80 | $10.24 | $2.33 | $2.53 |
| BUF | $2.27 | $7.65 | -$1.80 | -$3.40 | $0.47 | $4.24 |
| TBL | -$2.96 | -$2.43 | $3.25 | $3.41 | $0.29 | $0.98 |
| CAR | $0.99 | $2.58 | -$1.47 | -$1.81 | -$0.48 | $0.76 |
| TOR | $2.97 | $5.99 | -$3.69 | -$15.38 | -$0.72 | -$9.39 |
| EDM | -$1.47 | -$5.52 | -$0.36 | $0.71 | -$1.83 | -$4.81 |
| VGK | -$5.96 | -$5.89 | $3.50 | $1.72 | -$2.47 | -$4.17 |
| DAL | $0.86 | $5.76 | -$3.59 | -$12.37 | -$2.73 | -$6.61 |
| BOS | -$1.40 | -$7.22 | -$1.39 | -$0.35 | -$2.79 | -$7.57 |
| CGY | -$2.17 | $3.57 | -$1.04 | -$2.19 | -$3.22 | $1.38 |
| ANA | $3.80 | $2.41 | -$7.89 | -$8.69 | -$4.09 | -$6.28 |
| MIN | -$2.25 | $0.55 | -$2.68 | -$6.11 | -$4.92 | -$5.56 |
| LAK | $2.47 | $4.65 | -$9.16 | -$7.62 | -$6.69 | -$2.96 |
| ARI | -$10.29 | -$7.03 | $2.06 | -$0.66 | -$8.22 | -$7.69 |
| MTL | -$2.86 | -$10.56 | -$5.37 | -$12.11 | -$8.23 | -$22.67 |
| CBJ | -$7.11 | -$11.19 | -$2.11 | -$0.03 | -$9.22 | -$11.22 |
| NYI | -$4.50 | -$8.85 | -$5.46 | -$9.15 | -$9.95 | -$18.00 |
| SEA | -$1.27 | -$1.32 | -$9.05 | -$9.79 | -$10.32 | -$11.10 |
| OTT | -$9.10 | -$11.26 | -$1.60 | -$8.08 | -$10.70 | -$19.34 |
| NJD | -$1.96 | $1.50 | -$9.87 | -$10.81 | -$11.83 | -$9.30 |
| PIT | -$9.93 | -$11.90 | -$3.33 | -$0.42 | -$13.26 | -$12.32 |
| SJS | -$12.70 | -$20.49 | -$0.78 | $3.01 | -$13.48 | -$17.48 |
| CHI | -$14.65 | -$14.13 | -$0.03 | -$4.57 | -$14.68 | -$18.70 |
Switching over to the Eastern Conference, the Washington Capitals have been a great bet in regulation. After going 3-2 on their recent road trip, the Caps now have 27 regulation wins, which works out to about 13 units for every unit wagered. New York and Florida also remain solid regulation bets, but given their odds, Washington has been the better team to bet on lately. Buffalo has crept into the black, too, but they’ve only been profitable on the road.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Edmonton Oilers Over 6.5 Goals
There will be plenty of bleu, blanc, et rouge in the crowd at Rogers Place on Tuesday, as fans of the Montreal Canadiens travel well, especially in Oil Country. The Oilers should still win this one in lopsided fashion, but don’t discount Montreal’s ability to make games interesting. Sure, the Canadiens have only won five of their last 20 road games, but 14 of those games have featured at least seven goals and that’s part of their charm. Montreal is seemingly incapable of playing the type of road game needed to make this a low-scoring affair. That likely only happens if Samuel Montembeault stands on his head and the Oilers decide not to force the issue. Not to mention, the Oilers are starting backup Calvin Pickard. Bet over 6.5 goals at NorthStar Bets for -104 odds.
Montreal at Edmonton Over 6.5 Goals
-104
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