It’s time for a weekly breakdown of the NHL betting market, powered by NorthStar Bets.
2023-24 NHL Betting Trends
As of this past Monday, teams had played 980 of 1,312 regular season games, representing a meaningful sample size. Examining the compiled NHL betting data from the 2023-24 season below reveals key trends and patterns that can help inform future betting decisions. For example, with two more games going over 5.5 on Monday, games with a low total (5.5 goals) have gone over 57.1 percent of the time despite having pick ‘em odds on average. That’s a big discrepancy and it’s been present for the better part of the season.
Team Money Leaders (Most and Least Profitable NHL Moneyline Bets)
Despite losing six of their last 10 games, the St. Louis Blues remain the most profitable moneyline bet year-to-date. Washington has been surprisingly profitable. Anaheim has been better than breakeven, but just barely, as the Ducks have failed to play up to their odds at home. The opposite is true for Nashville, which has been a profitable road bet, but not so much at home.
| Team | Away Moneyline $ | Home Moneyline $ | Total Moneyline $ |
| STL | $3.41 | $9.19 | $12.60 |
| FLA | $6.32 | $2.37 | $8.69 |
| WPG | $3.96 | $4.44 | $8.40 |
| WSH | $3.17 | $4.87 | $8.04 |
| VAN | $2.41 | $5.46 | $7.87 |
| DET | $4.53 | $2.88 | $7.41 |
| NSH | $7.85 | -$0.46 | $7.38 |
| NYR | $1.31 | $4.72 | $6.03 |
| PHI | $5.88 | -$1.84 | $4.03 |
| ANA | $7.80 | -$7.61 | $0.19 |
| EDM | -$0.88 | $0.30 | -$0.58 |
| TOR | $2.46 | -$3.26 | -$0.80 |
| BUF | $4.25 | -$5.20 | -$0.95 |
| TBL | -$4.36 | $2.63 | -$1.73 |
| VGK | -$5.61 | $3.48 | -$2.13 |
| CGY | -$1.46 | -$1.12 | -$2.58 |
| DAL | -$0.70 | -$2.19 | -$2.89 |
| CAR | -$0.90 | -$1.99 | -$2.89 |
| BOS | -$1.89 | -$1.07 | -$2.96 |
| COL | -$9.80 | $6.79 | -$3.01 |
| LAK | $4.10 | -$8.42 | -$4.32 |
| MIN | -$0.96 | -$4.34 | -$5.30 |
| SEA | -$2.70 | -$4.05 | -$6.75 |
| MTL | -$2.72 | -$4.24 | -$6.96 |
| NYI | -$2.31 | -$4.98 | -$7.28 |
| CBJ | -$5.11 | -$2.56 | -$7.67 |
| ARI | -$9.64 | $1.50 | -$8.13 |
| NJD | -$0.64 | -$8.48 | -$9.12 |
| SJS | -$8.70 | -$0.78 | -$9.48 |
| PIT | -$7.93 | -$1.81 | -$9.74 |
| OTT | -$8.35 | -$1.71 | -$10.06 |
| CHI | -$16.00 | -$2.22 | -$18.22 |
Florida is also among the most profitable teams after earning another win over the Rangers in New York on Monday. The Panthers will be in action on Tuesday against the Devils, who recently fired their coach. If you watched or listened to The Puck Portfolio on Monday, you’d know I recommended the Panthers on the moneyline at -118. The Panthers are now -125 at NorthStar Bets, which is a relatively good price, and also proves that the ‘new coach bump’ is overrated. The Devils might play better, and they might win, but the market clearly isn’t worried about it.
Florida has an edge in the crease, too. Even with backup Anthony Stolarz slated to start, the Panthers should be fine. Per Evolving Hockey, Stolarz has posted a .922 save percentage while saving 10.55 goals above expected. The Devils rank 27th in goals against per 60 minutes.
Florida Panthers Moneyline
-125
Will teams tank following the NHL trade deadline?
The NHL trade deadline is just a few days away and by Wednesday, more than 75% of the regular season will have been played. Last season, the teams at the bottom of the standings (23-32) on deadline day went 70-141 straight-up for -46.64 units. Only one of the bottom-10 teams (Vancouver) ended up being a profitable moneyline bet following the March 3rd trade deadline.
However, while I do expect we will see a few teams fall even further down the stretch, I doubt we’ll see the level of tanking that we saw last season as winning the lottery just isn’t the same when there isn’t a Connor Bedard-type player available. Macklin Celebrini is currently ranked No. 1 on NHL Central Scouting’s midterm list of North American players that are eligible for the 2024 draft and he’s the consensus pick to go first overall this summer. Check out my conversation with AP hockey writer Stephen Whyno on today’s episode of The Puck Portfolio as he handicaps the NHL trade deadline.
More NHL Content
Check out more great NHL betting content from the CSB team:
