This week’s breakdown of the NHL betting market is powered by NorthStar Bets.
Which NHL favourites have been the most reliable?
Moneyline favourites have won nearly 61 percent of the games so far in the 2023-24 NHL regular season, but the best favourites win upwards of 65 percent of the time.
1. Florida Panthers
The Panthers have been the best favourite to bet on so far this season. Florida has gone 40-17 for 7.5 units, but home and road splits are important. The Panthers have not been a profitable bet as favourites on home ice, but they have been on the road. Florida has gone 21-4 as the road favourite this season for 10.09 units.
2. Winnipeg Jets
The Winnipeg Jets have cruised over their regular season point total, which was set at 91.5, partly because they’ve won 70 percent of the games in which they were listed as the favourite. The Jets have a record of 35-15 in games in which they have been the favourite. Betting $100 on the Jets to win each of those games would have resulted in a total profit of 6.07 units.
3. New York Rangers
New York was seen as a fringe contender, with a regular season point total of 101.5, but they’re going to finish much higher than that. As a result, New York has been the third most profitable favourite. This is mostly due to how good the Rangers have played at MSG this season, but they’ve been slightly profitable as a road favourite, too.
4. Washington Capitals
The Capitals have gone 13-4 straight up as favourites this season for 5.51 units, but the majority of that profit comes from games in which the Capitals were a home favourite. Washington has only been a road favourite six times so far this season, and they’ve won four of those games. The Capitals have only been a favourite 17 times, but they’ve been reliable, winning 76.5 percent of the time when the odds are in their favour.
5. Nashville Predators
Nashville is the second most profitable team year-to-date, but they’ve made bettors almost as many units as favourites as they have as underdogs. The Predators are the fifth-most profitable favourite year-to-date after going 24-11 straight up for 5.23 units. The next-best team, Minnesota, has gone 22-11 for 3.68 units.
Which NHL favourites have let bettors down?
Not all moneyline favourites have lived up to expectations, though, and the following teams haven’t performed well, from a betting perspective, when the odds have been in their favour.
28. Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas has been a favourite 47 times this season, but they’ve won just 26 of those games. That’s more than 55 percent, but that’s nowhere near the percentage they’d need to win to be profitable. As a result, Vegas rounds out the bottom five teams in this ranking. If a bettor had bet one unit on the Golden Knights to win each of the games that they were favoured to win, they’d be down -6.33 units so far.
29. Calgary Flames
After losing so many one-goal games in 2022-23, bettors probably thought the Flames would be a better bet in 2023-24. Technically, Calgary has been a better bet than they were a season ago, but they still haven’t been profitable overall. The Flames have been a decent underdog bet, overall, but they’ve only won 47 percent of the games in which they were favoured to win for -6.62 units.
30. Boston Bruins
Boston will finish with more points than most thought they would before the season, but that doesn’t mean they’ve been a good team to bet on. The Bruins have only been an underdog 10 times this season, and they’ve won six of those games, but they’ve won just 35 of 62 games that they were favoured to win, and betting one unit on them in each of those games would have resulted in -6.88 unit loss.
31. New York Islanders
Not only are Rangers fans enjoying a better season than fans of the Islanders, but Rangers’ backers have had a much more profitable season than those who thought the Islanders were a good bet on a game-to-game basis. If a bettor placed a one-unit bet on the Islanders in all 35 games that they have been favoured to win, they’d have gone 15-20 for -10.26 units. The Islanders have been a bankroll killer.
32. Pittsburgh Penguins
No favourite has performed as badly as Pittsburgh, though. The Penguins have been a favourite 41 times this season but they have won just 18 of those games for -12.75 units. The Penguins were expected to be a wild card team, with a regular season total of 96.5 points. However, they’ve only accumulated 70 points in 70 games and this is due, in large part, to the fact that they’ve lost so many games that they should have won. Check out the full list below.
| Team | Fav Count | Fav Wins | Fav Win % | Fav $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 57 | 40 | 70.18% | $7.50 |
| WPG | 50 | 35 | 70.00% | $6.07 |
| NYR | 53 | 36 | 67.92% | $5.69 |
| WSH | 17 | 13 | 76.47% | $5.51 |
| NSH | 35 | 24 | 68.57% | $5.23 |
| MIN | 33 | 22 | 66.67% | $3.68 |
| TBL | 42 | 27 | 64.29% | $3.31 |
| ARI | 16 | 11 | 68.75% | $3.21 |
| MTL | 6 | 5 | 83.33% | $3.07 |
| COL | 59 | 40 | 67.80% | $2.88 |
| CHI | 5 | 4 | 80.00% | $1.90 |
| DET | 24 | 15 | 62.50% | $1.34 |
| DAL | 63 | 41 | 65.08% | $1.12 |
| BUF | 26 | 16 | 61.54% | $1.00 |
| VAN | 47 | 30 | 63.83% | $0.76 |
| STL | 15 | 9 | 60.00% | $0.71 |
| PHI | 20 | 12 | 60.00% | $0.59 |
| CAR | 66 | 42 | 63.64% | -$0.33 |
| CBJ | 6 | 3 | 50.00% | -$0.99 |
| SJS | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | -$1.00 |
| ANA | 8 | 4 | 50.00% | -$1.28 |
| TOR | 54 | 32 | 59.26% | -$1.87 |
| EDM | 62 | 39 | 62.90% | -$2.41 |
| NJD | 47 | 27 | 57.45% | -$2.93 |
| LAK | 50 | 28 | 56.00% | -$5.04 |
| SEA | 25 | 12 | 48.00% | -$5.33 |
| OTT | 29 | 14 | 48.28% | -$5.34 |
| VGK | 47 | 26 | 55.32% | -$6.33 |
| CGY | 34 | 16 | 47.06% | -$6.62 |
| BOS | 62 | 35 | 56.45% | -$6.88 |
| NYI | 35 | 15 | 42.86% | -$10.26 |
| PIT | 41 | 18 | 43.90% | -$12.75 |
Who are the most profitable underdogs in the NHL?
If favourites are winning at a 60.9 percent clip, that means underdogs are winning just 39.1 percent of the time in the NHL this season. Some dogs have more bite than others, though.
1. St. Louis Blues
Even after Tuesday’s loss to the Vegas Golden Knights, the Blues remain the most profitable moneyline bet in the league. However, 95 percent of those profits have come from betting on the Blues as an underdog, not as a favourite. St. Louis has gone 29-28 as the underdog this season for 14.46 units. That’s almost twice as much as the next-best team.
2. Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver has been the second-most profitable underdog bet this season, winning 60 percent of the time for 8.19 units. The Canucks have only been an underdog six times since the start of January, and it’s been a while since they’ve been a home underdog. Vancouver has gone 5-2 as the road underdog since the start of 2024. However, I expect them to be an underdog in at least half of their remaining schedule.
3. Nashville Predators
Nashville has also won 50 percent of the games in which they were listed as the underdog, and that makes them the third-most profitable bet. Of course, a lot of this has to do with their recent run. The Predators haven’t lost a game in regulation since they lost 9-2 to the Dallas Stars and the team cancelled their trip to see U2 perform at The Sphere in Las Vegas. General manager Barry Trotz knows how to push the right buttons to get his team going.
4. New York Rangers
The Rangers have been slightly more profitable as an underdog than they have been as a favourite, but opportunities to bet New York as a dog are few and far between. The Rangers have been an underdog just 18 times this season, which means they’ve been a favourite about 75 percent of the time. And, by my estimation, the Rangers will only been an underdog in one of their 11 remaining games. New York will take on the Avalanche in Colorado on March 28th.
5. Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia has been just as profitable as New York, despite being an underdog in more than 70 percent of their games so far this season. The Flyers have gone 24-28 as the dog for 4.9 units. However, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Washington and Vegas, who have both been good underdog bets this season. The Capitals have gone 22-31 for 4.33 units, while the Golden Knights have gone 13-11 for 4.31 units.
These NHL underdogs are all bark and no bite
28. Columbus Blue Jackets
There aren’t many surprises on the back half of this list, including the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have gone 20-45 as the underdog this season for -11.23 units. The Blue Jackets had a 73.5 regular season point total before the start of the campaign, but they’ve only accumulated 58 points in 71 games so far. Columbus would have to earn 16 points in their final 11 games to go over their regular season point total.
29. Montreal Canadiens
I don’t want to say the Montreal Canadiens are a bad underdog bet because, under the right circumstances, the Habs can be a good underdog bet. Montreal is 11-10 in road games where its moneyline odds are +215 or shorter for 7.1 units of profit. However, the Canadiens have gone 1-13 in the other road games where they were an even bigger underdog, and that has resulted in a loss of -11.88 units for anyone who bet one unit on them to win each of those games.
30. Arizona Coyotes
Arizona has been a solid favourite, mostly due to their ability to win the games that they are favoured in. As underdogs, though, the Coyotes are all bark and no bite. If a bettor had bet on Arizona to win every game in which they were listed as the underdog so far this season, they’d be down -12.49 units. Arizona is 11-5 for 3.21 units as the favourite, though.
31. San Jose Sharks
The Sharks have only been a favourite in one game this season (which was probably a mistake on the part of the market). San Jose has gone 16-53 straight up as the underdog this season. If a bettor had placed a one-unit bet on the Sharks in each of those 69 games, they’d be down -15.48 units.
32. Chicago Blackhawks
No underdog has been as bad as Chicago, though. The Blackhawks have won four out of the five games that they were favoured to win, but they’ve gone just 16-50 in games where they have been listed as the underdog for -17.75 units. Overall, a bettor that bet on Chicago to win every game would be down -15.84 units. You check out the full list below.
| Team | Dog Count | Dog Wins | Dog Win % | Dog $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 57 | 29 | 50.88% | $14.46 |
| NSH | 36 | 18 | 50.00% | $5.65 |
| NYR | 18 | 11 | 61.11% | $4.90 |
| WSH | 53 | 22 | 41.51% | $4.33 |
| VAN | 25 | 15 | 60.00% | $8.19 |
| FLA | 14 | 6 | 42.86% | -$0.82 |
| PHI | 52 | 24 | 46.15% | $4.90 |
| WPG | 21 | 9 | 42.86% | -$0.65 |
| COL | 12 | 6 | 50.00% | $0.57 |
| DET | 47 | 21 | 44.68% | $1.77 |
| TBL | 29 | 12 | 41.38% | -$2.06 |
| CAR | 6 | 3 | 50.00% | $0.43 |
| TOR | 16 | 8 | 50.00% | $1.19 |
| BUF | 46 | 18 | 39.13% | -$1.77 |
| DAL | 9 | 3 | 33.33% | -$2.51 |
| VGK | 24 | 13 | 54.17% | $4.31 |
| EDM | 7 | 3 | 42.86% | -$0.73 |
| LAK | 21 | 10 | 47.62% | $1.14 |
| BOS | 10 | 6 | 60.00% | $2.56 |
| CGY | 36 | 17 | 47.22% | $1.40 |
| ANA | 63 | 20 | 31.75% | -$3.98 |
| MIN | 38 | 12 | 31.58% | -$10.16 |
| MTL | 64 | 21 | 32.81% | -$11.88 |
| ARI | 55 | 18 | 32.73% | -$12.49 |
| NJD | 25 | 8 | 32.00% | -$6.54 |
| OTT | 41 | 16 | 39.02% | -$4.22 |
| NYI | 36 | 15 | 41.67% | -$1.53 |
| CBJ | 65 | 20 | 30.77% | -$11.23 |
| SEA | 45 | 16 | 35.56% | -$7.99 |
| CHI | 66 | 16 | 24.24% | -$17.75 |
| PIT | 29 | 12 | 41.38% | -$3.51 |
| SJS | 69 | 16 | 23.19% | -$15.48 |
