Ottawa is a popular pick to make the playoffs after acquiring Vezina Trophy-winning goalie Linus Ullmark from the Boston Bruins, but fans and pundits should temper their expectations. The Senators haven’t placed higher than sixth in the Atlantic Division since their last playoff appearance in 2017, and it’s unlikely they’ll qualify in 2024-25.
Sportsbooks give Ottawa a slightly better chance of making the playoffs compared to other teams that missed out in 2023-24, but the margin is slim. They’re one of six Eastern Conference teams projected to earn between 88.5 and 90.5 points—all of which finished ahead of Ottawa last season.
| Ottawa Senators Futures | Sports Interaction | bet365 |
|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Points | Total: 90.5 Over: -110 Under: -110 | Total: 90.5 Over: -105 Under: -115 |
| Playoffs | Yes: +105 No: -125 | Yes: +110 No: -140 |
| Presidents’ Trophy | +5000 | +6000 |
| Atlantic Division | +1100 | +1100 |
| Eastern Conference | +2000 | +2000 |
| Win Stanley Cup | +4000 | +4000 |
Last Season
Ottawa was expected to take a step forward and make the playoffs last season. They added defenseman Jakob Chychrun and goaltender Joonas Korpisalo. However, Chychrun didn’t meet expectations, and Korpisalo finished last in goals saved above expected, according to Evolving Hockey. Not to mention, two of their best young forwards missed a large chunk of the season. It was so bad that both the head coach and general manager were fired by the new owner, and the Senators finished with 78 points, just two points better than the last-place Montreal Canadiens.
Offence
The Senators’ offense improved from 26th in 2021-22 to 18th in 2022-23, but dropped to 20th last season. Brady Tkachuk set a career-high with 37 goals, and Drake Batherson also reached a personal best with 28. However, Tim Stutzle scored 21 fewer goals in 2023-24 (18) compared to the previous season (39), while Josh Norris (injury) and Shane Pinto (suspension) missed significant time. Vladimir Tarasenko, brought in to bolster the offence, was traded before the deadline.
| Player | Goals | Over | Under | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stutzle | 28.5 | -115 | -105 | bet365 |
| Brady Tkachuk | 36.5 | -110 | -110 | Bet99 |
| Drake Batherson | 26.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
Ottawa’s power play ranked in the bottom ten last season, down from their top-10 finish the year before. They’ve converted over 20 percent of their power plays since 2021-22, which is around the league average. With some luck on and off the ice, the Senators could improve their offence, but a larger sample of games suggests they’ll likely underperform their expected goals. Brady Tkachuk exemplifies this trend. Despite ranking among the top shot generators each season, the 25-year-old has consistently underperformed Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model, often posting the worst shooting percentage among top shooters.
| Player | Points | Over | Under | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stutzle | 84.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
| Brady Tkachuk | 80.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
| Claude Giroux | 63.5 | -105 | -120 | Sports Interaction |
| Drake Batherson | 63.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
| Shane Pinto | 44.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
With the core players carrying most of the load offensively, Ottawa could become an average or slightly above-average offensive team, but it’s hard to envision their scoring rate improving much. That is, unless Norris or Pinto can exceed reach new heights. The Senators have more room for growth defensively, and the players they added this summer will help them do that. Veteran David Perron was signed in the offseason, along with Mike Amadio, Nick Cousins, and Noah Gregor.
Defence
Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub were one of the league’s better shutdown pairings last season, and there’s potential for the duo to improve further in 2024-25. When they were on the ice together at 5-on-5, the Senators outscored opponents 2.85 to 2.55 per 60 minutes while controlling roughly 55 percent of high-danger shot attempts. Unfortunately, they were the only bright spot on the blue line.
Thomas Chabot mostly played with either Jakob Chychrun or Erik Brannstrom when healthy. Chabot had a productive offensive season, recording 30 points in 51 games, and he should perform better defensively this season with Jensen supporting him. The bottom-six forwards, including Pinto, Perron, Amadio, and/or Ridley Grieg, should form a solid checking line, adding more defensive competency.
However, only the Sharks and Blackhawks allowed more 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes last season, so Ullmark will have the biggest say on whether the Senators improve defensively or not.
Goaltending
The Senators have ranked among the bottom ten teams in goals against in six of the last seven seasons while cycling through a variety of goaltenders. However, given that no goaltender has posted a better save percentage than Ullmark (.924) has over the last three seasons, the team can expect to have some stability in the crease this season. That said, the 31-year-old has yet to start more than 50 games in a season. He started just 39 games in two of his three seasons with the Bruins, and even in Boston’s record-setting 2022-23 campaign, he only made 48 starts while splitting time with Jeremy Swayman. In Ottawa, the roles between Ullmark and Anton Forsberg will be more defined, and he won’t have one of the best defensive teams in the league in front of him. Ottawa’s save percentage, which was tied for last with the Philadelphia Flyers last season, will certainly improve, but sportsbooks have Ullmark pegged for 25.5 wins, and Forsberg has won just 46 percent of his games over the past three seasons. Ottawa’s regular season points total is 90.5, which works out to 40 wins, give or take.
Prediction
Ottawa should bounce back from last season’s disastrous 78-point finish, but it’s hard to argue that the Senators are so much better than the competition that they should be a favourite to qualify for the postseason. Our model landed on 90 points on average, which resulted in Ottawa making the playoffs just 32 percent of the time. That’s better than the Penguins, Capitals, and Flyers, though, but it’s slightly worse than the Islanders. The Senators also finished with 100-plus points in 10 percent of simulations, and they even won the Atlantic Division two percent of the time.
