Does Patrik Laine Make Montreal A Serious Playoff Threat?

Patrik Laine #29 of the Columbus Blue Jackets skates against the Washington Capitals during the first period at Capital One Arena on November 18, 2023 in Washington, DC.

Outside of a couple of offer sheets, the NHL had been relatively quiet—until the Montreal Canadiens made a major move on Monday afternoon by acquiring star winger Patrik Laine from the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for defenceman Jordan Harris and a 2026 second-round pick.

The 26-year-old Laine recorded nine points in 18 games with the Blue Jackets last season before breaking his clavicle on December 14th. However, after an undisclosed setback, he entered the NHL’s player assistance program on January 28th to focus on his mental health. Laine was cleared from the program on July 26th.

Patrik Laine’s Career So Far

The former second-overall pick tallied 250 points (140 goals and 110 assists) in 306 games with the Winnipeg Jets between 2016 and 2020. In his first three seasons, Laine scored 36, 44, and 30 goals, respectively, and notched 30 goals in his final 69 games before being traded early in the 2020-21 season.

Although he started strong with three goals in his first three games as a Blue Jacket, Laine was benched for the final 26 minutes of his fourth game by then-head coach John Tortorella and scored just 10 goals and 21 points in 45 games that season. Despite this, the 6-foot-5 winger managed to score 48 goals in his next 111 games before everything fell apart in the 2023-24 season.

Projected Forward Line Combinations

Laine is joining a young and promising core in Montreal. The forward group features 25-year-old captain Nick Suzuki, 2022 first-overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky, and goal scorer Cole Caufield. Also part of the group is 2019 third-overall pick Kirby Dach, who was limited to just two games last season due to knee surgery.

Juraj SlafkovskyNick SuzukiCole Caufield
Alex NewhookKirby DachPatrick Laine
Joshua RoyChristian DvorakJosh Anderson
Joel ArmiaJake EvansBrendan Gallagher
via Daily Faceoff

The Canadiens’ forward group looks formidable from top to bottom. With the addition of Laine, Montreal now boasts several players who could potentially reach or exceed the 30-goal mark. Suzuki hit that milestone for the first time last season, while Caufield was just two goals shy of the milestone and was on a 46-goal pace before being injured the season prior. Meanwhile, Slafkovsky notched 20 goals in his sophomore season.

How Many Goals Will Patrik Laine Score This Season?

Laine addressed reporters via Zoom on Monday after the trade, responding to questions about whether he could reclaim his goal-scoring form. He made it clear that he’s determined to come back not just as a 30-goal scorer, but as a 40-goal or even 50-goal threat.

The three-time 30-goal scorer has only reached the 40-goal mark once in his career, netting 44 goals in 82 games during his sophomore season. Since 2019-20, Laine hasn’t played more than 56 games in a single season, making his recent goal totals somewhat misleading.

However, Laine scored at a 30-plus goal pace in two of his four years with the Blue Jackets (2021-22 and 2022-23). While aiming for 40 or 50 goals might be ambitious given the challenges he’s faced in recent years, a 30-35 goal season is a reasonable expectation. Laine might need some time to regain his form, but he believes he can still “rip the puck,” so a 40-plus goal campaign is possible.

Does Laine Make the Canadiens a Serious Playoff Threat?

If Laine does turn the Canadiens into a serious playoff threat, it hasn’t yet been reflected in the hockey betting market.

Initially, bet365 projected the Canadiens to finish with 75.5 points for the 2024-25 regular season. Only four teams had a lower total. At that time, my advice was to bet on them exceeding that figure. Since then, both bet365 and Bet99 have raised Montreal’s total to 76.5 points, while Sports Interaction has set it at 77.5 points. Still, my advice is the same, because I now view the Canadiens as an 80-plus point team.

Montreal Canadiens Over 76.5 Regular Season Points

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In other words, Laine’s acquisition does not make Montreal a serious playoff contender, it does place them in the mix, whereas they were not previously considered. The trade also makes Montreal an intriguing bet to exceed their regular season point total, but not a good bet to make the playoffs. Besides, their current playoff odds are 6/1, while their odds of recording 90-plus points are 7/1. The playoff cutoff was 91 points in the Eastern Conference last season.