It’s time for a weekly breakdown of the NHL betting market, powered by NorthStar Bets.
Breaking Down Full Game Totals
Totals have been hard to beat overall, but two strategies that have worked year-to-date are betting games to go under when the total is set at 6.5, and betting games with a total of 5.5 to go over. In general, though, it seems like the betting market has a difficult time dealing with the nuances of betting hockey totals.
For example, the profiles of the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers are quite similar. However, while Dallas has a record of 36-21 to the over (ranking 1st in the NHL), the Oilers stand at 22-26-4 to the over, placing them 22nd in the NHL. Also apparent is that bad teams like the San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks don’t contribute enough to the score in order to be profitable over bets.
| Total | Games | Over | Odds | Under | Odds | Push |
| 7 | 72 | 36.1% | 47.8% | 45.8% | 55.1% | 18.1% |
| 6.5 | 448 | 47.5% | 52.1% | 52.5% | 50.8% | |
| 6 | 298 | 47.3% | 51.8% | 43.6% | 51.1% | 9.1% |
| 5.5 | 65 | 55.4% | 52.6% | 44.6% | 50.3% |
Most Profitable Regulation Bets
One of the most popular bets in hockey is the 60-minute line where you can bet on either team to win in regulation, but there isn’t much data available for the betting public to consume in relation to this particular betting market, so I wanted to provide a breakdown of each team’s year-to-date profit in the 60-minute market.
The first thing that should stand out, besides the profitability, is that there aren’t very many teams who manage to win more than 50% of their games in regulation. If you’re a sports bettor, that means you’re going to lose more often than you win betting on teams to win in regulation, but the odds can be in your favour.
| Team | GP | Road Reg Win% | Road Reg Odds | Home Reg Win% | Home Reg Odds | Away Reg $ | Home Reg $ | Total Reg $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 58 | 50.0% | 42.5% | 65.4% | 47.0% | $7.38 | $13.07 | $20.45 |
| WPG | 54 | 46.2% | 41.8% | 67.9% | 47.4% | $4.23 | $10.76 | $14.99 |
| FLA | 56 | 58.6% | 45.5% | 51.9% | 51.7% | $7.25 | $2.17 | $9.42 |
| STL | 55 | 33.3% | 34.4% | 46.4% | 37.1% | -$1.16 | $8.31 | $7.15 |
| PHI | 56 | 39.3% | 34.7% | 39.3% | 39.7% | $6.38 | $0.32 | $6.70 |
| EDM | 52 | 42.9% | 48.4% | 66.7% | 53.3% | -$1.61 | $6.84 | $5.23 |
| WSH | 54 | 34.6% | 33.0% | 39.3% | 37.3% | $2.95 | $2.21 | $5.16 |
| NYR | 56 | 41.4% | 46.6% | 63.0% | 51.7% | -$1.60 | $6.28 | $4.67 |
| BUF | 55 | 42.3% | 34.2% | 34.5% | 42.2% | $7.81 | -$4.81 | $2.99 |
| COL | 57 | 33.3% | 45.6% | 74.1% | 53.8% | -$7.15 | $9.76 | $2.61 |
| LAK | 54 | 51.7% | 44.1% | 40.0% | 49.6% | $6.02 | -$5.12 | $0.91 |
| CGY | 56 | 44.8% | 39.7% | 37.0% | 43.6% | $3.68 | -$2.95 | $0.73 |
| NSH | 56 | 44.4% | 37.0% | 34.5% | 43.0% | $6.81 | -$6.48 | $0.33 |
| DET | 55 | 33.3% | 34.2% | 42.9% | 40.6% | -$2.86 | $2.92 | $0.07 |
| VGK | 56 | 40.7% | 43.5% | 48.3% | 48.9% | -$2.01 | $2.02 | $0.01 |
| TBL | 57 | 31.0% | 39.8% | 53.6% | 44.4% | -$6.88 | $5.64 | -$1.24 |
| CAR | 55 | 48.1% | 46.5% | 50.0% | 54.5% | $1.01 | -$2.95 | -$1.93 |
| ANA | 55 | 32.1% | 27.8% | 18.5% | 34.4% | $6.15 | -$9.85 | -$3.70 |
| NJD | 55 | 48.1% | 41.2% | 35.7% | 50.2% | $3.34 | -$8.47 | -$5.13 |
| BOS | 56 | 42.3% | 47.3% | 50.0% | 53.4% | -$2.99 | -$2.16 | -$5.15 |
| DAL | 57 | 55.2% | 45.5% | 32.1% | 52.5% | $4.93 | -$10.56 | -$5.63 |
| MIN | 56 | 37.0% | 37.5% | 34.5% | 43.4% | -$0.83 | -$6.04 | -$6.87 |
| PIT | 53 | 34.6% | 43.3% | 40.7% | 45.4% | -$5.90 | -$1.39 | -$7.28 |
| OTT | 53 | 30.4% | 36.5% | 36.7% | 43.9% | -$3.26 | -$6.27 | -$9.53 |
| ARI | 55 | 25.9% | 32.1% | 39.3% | 37.5% | -$8.42 | -$1.49 | -$9.91 |
| TOR | 54 | 44.4% | 46.1% | 29.6% | 50.0% | $0.58 | -$11.15 | -$10.57 |
| SJS | 55 | 10.3% | 21.5% | 30.8% | 26.0% | -$14.49 | $3.48 | -$11.01 |
| NYI | 55 | 30.8% | 37.5% | 31.0% | 43.2% | -$2.95 | -$9.84 | -$12.79 |
| SEA | 55 | 26.7% | 37.1% | 36.0% | 42.7% | -$8.17 | -$5.03 | -$13.19 |
| CBJ | 54 | 18.5% | 28.0% | 25.9% | 32.7% | -$10.74 | -$4.23 | -$14.97 |
| MTL | 55 | 26.9% | 31.7% | 20.7% | 33.5% | -$5.12 | -$12.09 | -$17.21 |
| CHI | 56 | 10.3% | 25.4% | 25.9% | 28.5% | -$15.53 | -$3.42 | -$18.95 |
For example, teams like Dallas, Boston, Carolina, and Toronto have all been bad regulation bets because the average odds are more than 50% and the rates are much lower than that. Meanwhile, the Washington Capitals have only won 34.6% of their road games in regulation, but because their average odds are 33%, or +203, they’ve been profitable. Washington’s regulation odds aren’t as attractive when playing as the home team, averaging out at 37.3% or +168, but the Capitals have won 39.3% of their home games in regulation which is enough to be profitable overall.
The St. Louis Blues haven’t been as consistent in all situations, but they’ve been strong on home ice, and that’s resulted in being the fourth-most profitable home team inside 60 minutes. The Blues will play host to the New York Islanders on Thursday and are listed at +145 to win in regulation. New York has gone 10-16 straight-up in road games this season and they have won just seven out of 26 road games in regulation.
St. Louis Blues 60 Mins Line
+145
Updated NHL Betting Trends as of Wednesday, Feb. 21
Here is your weekly dose of hockey betting trends from around the league for major NHL betting markets such as moneyline, puckline, and over/under.
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