Predicting Points: Over/Under Projections On Canadian NHL Teams for the 2024-25 Regular Season

Even though the NHL regular season doesn’t kick off until October 4th, fans and bettors alike can predict where teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs, Edmonton Oilers, and Montreal Canadiens will finish now that bet365 has released their regular season point totals. 

In this article, we take our first look at over/under predictions for each Canadian team, offering insights into their projected performances for the upcoming season. The following table displays the regular season point totals for both the Eastern and Western Conferences, as released by bet365.

Western Conference	Regular Season Points	Eastern Conference	Regular Season Points
Edmonton Oilers	108.5	New Jersey Devils	101.5
Dallas Stars	102.5	Florida Panthers	101.5
Colorado Avalanche	102.5	New York Rangers	100.5
Vegas Golden Knights	99.5	Carolina Hurricanes	100.5
Nashville Predators	99.5	Toronto Maple Leafs	100.5
Vancouver Canucks	98.5	Tampa Bay Lightning	99.5
Los Angeles Kings	98.5	Boston Bruins	99.5
Winnipeg Jets	97.5	Ottawa Senators	90.5
Minnesota Wild	97.5	Pittsburgh Penguins	89.5
Seattle Kraken	88.5	Philadelphia Flyers	89.5
Utah Hockey Club	88.5	Detroit Red Wings	89.5
St. Louis Blues	88.5	Buffalo Sabres	89.5
Calgary Flames	82.5	New York Islanders	88.5
Chicago Blackhawks	73.5	Washington Capitals	88.5
Anaheim Ducks	71.5	Montreal Canadiens	75.5
San Jose Sharks	64.5	Columbus Blue Jackets	69.5

Edmonton Oilers – Over/Under 108.5 Regular Season Points

Despite their early-season struggles, the Edmonton Oilers still finished with 104 points in the 2023-24 season. With a point total of 108.5 for the upcoming 2024-25 season, oddsmakers clearly believe the Oilers will improve upon their previous performance after a run to the Stanley Cup Final. In fact, Edmonton is the Stanley Cup favourite at 8/1 odds.

The Oilers should once again be a force offensively, especially after adding forwards Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson in the offseason, but they still have shortcomings on defence and in goal. Stuart Skinner has built some goodwill, he’s not yet considered among the best goaltenders in the Western Conference—and he may never be. Luckily, the Oilers have the weakest schedule in the entire NHL based on regular season points.

Edmonton deserves to be the highest-rated team in the league, and the regular season shouldn’t pose as many challenges this time around. The Oilers should finish with more points than any of the other 31 clubs, but there’s no incentive to bet over or under 108.5 regular season points given that it seems like a reasonable projection for the team.

Toronto Maple Leafs – Over/Under 100.5 Regular Season Points

The Toronto Maple Leafs enter the 2024-25 regular season with a projected points total of 100.5, after finishing with 102 points in 2023-24. Toronto finished third in the Atlantic Division last season but now have the second-best odds of winning it this season. However, this appears to be more influenced by the changes made by other teams, such as the Florida Panthers, Boston Bruins, and Tampa Bay Lightning, rather than any significant moves by the Maple Leafs.

Adding veteran defencemen Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and penalty-kill specialist Jani Hakanpaa grade out as solid moves, as does the signing of goaltender Anthony Stolarz, but 100.5 points seems like a step back given that this team has earned 102, 111, and 115 points in each of the last three seasons. The tandem of Stolarz and Joseph Woll could be excellent, but there’s a sample size issue as neither goaltender has played more than 25 games in a single season. Now they’re being asked to split 82 between them. It’s not a bad bet if you’re Brad Treliving, as both have posted solid numbers over their careers, but I don’t see a good wager here.

Vancouver Canucks – Over/Under 98.5 Regular Season Points

The Vancouver Canucks surprised many by finishing the 2023-24 season with 109 points, significantly outperforming their regular season projection of 90.5 points. The Canucks won one playoff round before losing to the Edmonton Oilers in seven games. For the 2024-25 season, however, oddsmakers have set their point total at 98.5, indicating an expected regression. After all, the Canucks benefited from puck luck in 2023-24, and they lost more star power than they gained this offseason.

Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov were important players for the Canucks in the playoffs, but both players chose to sign with the Boston Bruins this summer. Jake DeBrusk is a solid addition to the forward group, as he can play with either Elias Pettersson or J.T. Miller, but that’s the only move that the Canucks made that will move the needle all that much. Still, this is still a very talented roster, with one of the best goaltenders in the league, and the core is still intact.

It’s unlikely that Vancouver will accumulate as many points as last season, but 98.5 is too low given that they have such an easy schedule compared to the rest of the league. The Canucks still look like a 100-point team to me.

Winnipeg Jets – Over/Under 97.5 Regular Season Points

Winnipeg exceeded expectations in 2023-24, thanks to some significant roster changes and a Vezina Trophy-winning performance from Connor Hellebuyck. The Jets finished second in the Central Division with 110 points. However, for the 2024-25 season, their regular season point total is set at 97.5, marking the biggest drop-off of any team in the Western Conference following the departures of head coach Rick Bowness, Laurent Brossoit, Tyler Toffoli, and Sean Monahan.

At first blush, oddsmakers are likely right to anticipate fewer wins for the Jets this season. Although Toffoli and Monahan were acquired late in the previous season, their departures suggest Winnipeg may struggle offensively. Additionally, Brossoit’s impressive 15-5-2 record was crucial to the Jets’ success, and it remains uncertain whether his replacement, Kaapo Kahkonen, can match Brossoit’s performance. Moreover, divisional rivals like the Nashville Predators, Minnesota Wild, and Chicago Blackhawks have all made improvements over the offseason.

Ottawa Senators – Over/Under 90.5 Regular Season Points

The Ottawa Senators were a popular pick to make the playoffs in the 2023-24 season but fell short, finishing with just 78 points—well below their regular season point total of 91.5. As a result, oddsmakers are taking a more cautious approach with their point total set at 90.5 for the 2024-25 season, despite what appears to be a significant upgrade in goal with Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender Linus Ullmark. This might surprise fans who have been expecting the Sens to take a step forward, but it highlights the competitiveness of the Eastern Conference. Based on regular season point totals, the Senators are seen as the best of the rest, though there’s only a small gap separating them from the pack.

Calgary Flames – Over/Under 82.5 Regular Season Points

Expectations have shifted considerably for the Calgary Flames since the departures of Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau. Initially, the Flames were projected to earn 102.5 points for the 2022-23 season but ended up with 93. Last year, the projection was 94.5 points, but they finished with only 81. For the 2024-25 season, the bar has been set lower than ever before, with their point total projected at 82.5. This adjustment is understandable given the exits of starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom and forward Andrew Mangiapane. While the team did sign forwards Anthony Mantha and Ryan Lomberg, along with defenceman Jake Bean, it’s clear that more points went out the door than came in this offseason.

Montreal Canadiens – Over/Under 75.5 Regular Season Points

Believe it or not, the Montreal Canadiens surpassed their regular season point total projection of 71.5 by 4.5 points in 2023-24, finishing with 76 points. However, even though they accumulated eight more points than they did in 2022-23, they still finished last in the Atlantic Division and remained among the bottom five teams. Montreal didn’t add much to its roster this offseason, either, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Montreal ranked third in man-games lost last season, with Kirby Dach playing just two games and Alex Newhook missing 27 games himself. This limited head coach Martin St. Louis as he had little to work with down the middle. The team might have overachieved last season, but given that they did so while dealing with some major injuries, it’s reasonable to think that they are better off in 2023-24 with a little help from the Hockey Gods.

The top-six defence group is among the weakest in the league, but they have a solid goaltending tandem in Samuel Montembeault and Cayden Primeau. Montembeault ranked 10th and 13th in goals saved above expected during the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, respectively, while Primeau appears ready to take on full-time backup duties now that Jake Allen is out of the picture. 

The Canadiens aren’t in the hunt for a playoff spot, but they don’t have to be in order to outperform their regular season points total, which is set at 75.5.