While the National Hockey League season officially kicked off last week in Prague, yesterday felt like a more official return to action, with three games in Seattle, Florida, and the first-ever game in Salt Lake City getting fans back in their seats and in front of their screens.
Wednesday night will amplify that feeling even further as most of the Canadian teams (sorry, Ottawa) return to the mix. With three Canada-on-Canada games on the calendar, let’s take a look at three predictions that you can turn into a player prop bet tonight.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens – Cole Caufield Anytime Goal
Best Value: Sports Interaction (+185)
Also Consider: BetMGM (+185), Northstar Bets (+163), Bet365 (+175)
A lot of people will be looking to Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews to light the lamp Wednesday night, and it’s certainly not impossible that he gives fans a show – he scored in each of the first four season openers of his career, and had a hat trick against this very same Montreal team in last year’s opening night.
For me, though, I’m looking towards the other side of the ice. Specifically, I’m looking at Montreal sharpshooter Cole Caufield, who despite a down finishing year in 2023/24, finished second on the team in goals with 28. Across his career, he’s averaged about 32 goals per season, and at 24 years old, feels poised to make a jump this season.
More importantly, he’s historically been money against the Leafs, scoring more goals (nine) and points (12) against them than any other team. Granted, he’s also played more games against them than any other team (12), but these results also line up on a per-game basis.
Last year, he scored in two of his three games against Toronto, including the season opener.
If you’d rather back the Buds for this game, bet365 has a pretty enticing “Super Boost.” It offers +150 odds on a Leafs win combined with an Auston Matthews point, normally priced at -130.
Cole Caufield to score vs. TOR
Winnipeg Jets vs. Edmonton Oilers – Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points
Best Value: bet365 (-130)
Also Consider: Pinnacle (-130), BetVictor (-133)
The “cup-or-bust” Oilers got oh so close – a game and a goal – away from the ultimate prize last season, and no one seemed to feel the brunt of it more than Connor McDavid. Despite one of the greatest front-to-back playoff performances we’ve ever seen, the Oilers captain left unsatisfied, and being held scoreless in games six and seven likely added to that sting.
So, already likely on an average night, you have to feel like the Edmonton captain will feel some extra pep in his step tonight. Winning the first game of the season isn’t anywhere near the same as winning the last, but it leaves a strong opening statement. McDavid has points in his last three opening nights, two of which were multi-point games.
Also worth keeping in mind is that the Jets are in a bit of an adjustment period, moving on from Rick Bowness as their head coach. Scott Arniel provides them a relatively soft transition, though there may be a few kinks for them to figure out in transition. The strongest line of defence here will be Vezina Trophy winner, Connor Hellebuyck, but this early in the season, it’s hard to put full trust into any netminder to stop a heavy attack.
Connor McDavid over 1.5 points vs. WPG
Calgary Flames vs. Vancouver Canucks – Arturs Silovs Under 26.5 Saves
Best Value: Bet99 (-105)
Also Consider: Pinnacle (-105), Caesars (-113), BetVictor (-120)
Lastly, over in Vancouver, we get a player prop that’s more of a team prop in disguise – both because I feel the pick is interesting, and I think it’s a good opportunity to talk about the category as well. In this case, I’m talking about save props, and more specifically, Arturs Silovs’ saves line tonight, which is currently set at 26.5.
New bettors might look to this number as a gauge of a goaltender’s performance, but the difference between a great, decent, and bad performance in goal can often be a difference of just a couple goals against, and predicting those nights are very difficult. Even on an extreme night, we’re looking at the gap between 0-1 goals against and 5-7 goals against.
On the other hand, there’s a lot of gap in how a team’s defence holds up, as well as an opponent’s offensive prowess. Shot counts can get into the teens, and then can get into the fifties and beyond. It’s much more likely that the performance of the skaters will impact a save line than the performance of the goalie.
Wednesday specifically, I’m expecting a dominant performance out of the Canucks. They’re looking to prove that last season wasn’t a fluke, and will be playing at their best for the home crowd. Calgary’s roster is very much in rebuild mode, and are likely to be outclassed in this one. If they do get an early goal or two, that will only make them more conservative in an effort to protect a lead. I’d be shocked if they poured it on, so unless they exceed that expectation and Silovs has a good night as the cherry on top, I don’t think a lot is going to hit his pads.
