The Dallas Stars host the Colorado Avalanche in what is probably the most anticipated matchup of the second round. The last postseason meeting between the Stars and Avalanche was the 2020 second round, which Dallas won in seven games. The Avalanche went 3-1 straight-up versus the Stars in the regular season series.
Handicapping the Dallas Stars
Dallas pulled off a comeback against the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Vegas Golden Knights, in the first round. However, because the Stars lost the first two games, the series went seven games and now the team has only had one day off to rest. Meanwhile, Colorado has been off since April 30th.
Dallas Stars Stanley Cup Winner
The Stars scored just 2.2 goals per 60 minutes against Vegas. Dallas finished as the third-best offensive team in all situations during the regular season, though, and they scored 3.75 goals per game against Colorado in four games during the regular season. Wyatt Johnston (4-3-7) and Jason Robertson (3-2-5) were great in round one, as was defenceman Miro Heiskanen (1-4-5).
However, Dallas needs more from the likes of Roope Hintz, Matt Duchene, and Joe Pavelski. Hintz finished the first round with just one goal, while Duchene picked up a goal and an assist in seven games. Pavelski did not register a point in the series. It’s likely going to take four or more goals to beat Colorado on most nights, and that’s something Dallas only did once in the opening round.
The Stars only allowed 2.2 goals (per 60 minutes) in round one, but the Avalanche are going to be much tougher to defend than the Golden Knights were. No team scored more goals than the Avalanche did in the regular season, and they were also the best offensive team in round one. Not to mention, they scored five goals per game against Dallas in the four regular season meetings. Jake Oettinger was a lot better in the latter parts of the season, though, and therefore, Dallas was a lot better at defending.
The Stars lost the first three games they played versus the Avalanche, but they picked up a big 7-4 win over Colorado a month ago, on April 7th. That’s how the Stars are going to have to win games in this series, as stopping the Avalanche’s attack isn’t going to be easy. No Western Conference team was better than Dallas when it came to preventing goals during the last three months of the regular season, though.
Handicapping the Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche are back in the second round for the first time since winning the Stanley Cup in 2022. They made quick work of the Winnipeg Jets in the opening round, taking the series in just five games.
Colorado Avalanche Stanley Cup Winner
In the first round, Colorado scored 28 goals, almost double the Stars’ 16, despite playing two fewer games and facing the likely Vezina Trophy winner, Connor Hellebuyck. Winnipeg was a so-so defensive team, mostly relying on goaltending, while Dallas is one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Jets were just okay defensively, ranking 17th in high-danger shots against at 5-on-5, according to Natural Stat Trick, whereas the Stars ranked second in that category.
Oettinger might not be as strong as Hellebuyck, individually, but the Stars’ overall defensive strength makes them a much more formidable team than Colorado’s last opponent. And, while the Avalanche were good defensively in round one, they were a mediocre defensive team during the regular season. Colorado ranked 17th in goals against per 60 minutes during the regular season. The other seven teams left in the playoff picture ranked among the top-10 teams when it came to preventing goals in all situations.
In other words, it’s unlikely that Colorado will win unless they fill the Stars’ net. The Avalanche won 24 of their final 41 games in the regular season, but they scored four or more goals in 20 of those wins. In fact, the Avalanche are just 10-29 this season when they score three or fewer goals in a game, which means they can’t afford to sit back.
Besides, why would the Avalanche rely on goaltender Alexandar Georgiev when they have star players like Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen, who each scored nine points in the first round. Also, Colorado has scored four-plus goals in seven out of its last 10 games against Dallas, including the last five meetings. That trend must continue in order for the Avalanche to come out on top, but this isn’t the regular season.
Stars vs. Avalanche Series Prediction
Dallas Stars Series Winner
This series is going to be an epic showdown between two of the league’s most exciting teams, and there’s a good chance it goes six or seven games. However, by estimation, Dallas has a 56.8% chance (-131) of advancing to the Western Conference Final. That means Dallas is a good bet to win the series at -110, the current odds available at NorthStar Bets.
| Team | 4 Games | 5 Games | 6 games | 7 Games | Win Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | 7.6% | 15.4% | 16.2% | 17.5% | 56.7% |
| Colorado | 5% | 9.7% | 14.9% | 13.7% | 43.3% |
Learn how to predict the winner of a best-of-seven playoff series here.
