The Toronto Maple Leafs have wrapped up their preseason and dive straight into the real deal on Wednesday night, taking on the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell Centre in yet another opening pursuit towards the Stanley Cup – or at least, something closer to it than recent years. The 2023/24 season ended about where the projections placed them – a first-round, Game 7 defeat to the Boston Bruins after posting the league’s 10th-best record – but with eight consecutive playoff appearances amounting to a 1-8 record across nine series, angst remains at a high.
No one individual player bears as much of that angst as homegrown forward Mitch Marner, who faces a pivotal year in his blue-and-white career.
Surviving The Summer
Marner quickly became a battleground for the winds of change this summer, with much of the Toronto fanbase and mainstream media feeling that moving him out was a necessity to move the team forward. Within the side of the debate that argued in favour of such a move, one could find two parallel yet somewhat overlapping trains of thought.
One focused on the team, arguing that the Leafs needed a fundamental roster shakeup and that moving Marner was simply the easiest way to facilitate that. Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly had all been recently extended and have meaningful term remaining with the team. John Tavares’ $11-million contract is aging as expected – which is to say, not in a way that would have sum-positive value on the trade market in its final year, at least before the season starts. Moving out Marner would’ve created significant cap flexibility, theoretically could’ve led to a more significant return than most other salary-shedding pieces they could’ve moved, and due to his expiring deal, would presumably be easier to move.
If both sides can’t make it work this year, a seismic change is likely in the cards. That might not even be the fairest outcome – Marner can really only control himself, and while I think this is a solid enough Leafs roster, I agree with our own Andy MacNeil that the team isn’t at the peak of its powers and can’t be fully expected to chase a ring. In a sense, the team’s future is bound more by its past than its present, expected to avenge prior failures rather than be as good as they can be expected today.
| Year | GP | G | A | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 2020/21 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 2021/22 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 2022/23 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 14 |
| 2023/24 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
The other argument focused on Marner himself, pointing to a disappointing series where he seemed a step behind the play and produced just three points in seven games. Unfortunately, it’s not the first or even second or third time where the 27-year-old has fallen flat in the spring, though one can debate that the circumstances were different this time, as his struggles didn’t appear to come from the “heropuck” or play-forcing that made him ineffective from 2019 to 2021. The step behind could potentially be explained by recovery from a high ankle sprain suffered just before the playoffs, but those who had seen him come short were having none of that excuse. Some pointed to potential arguments on the bench (since cleared up by Amazon’s FACEOFF documentary) and responses to the media that seemed dismissive of the issues, snowballing an already tense environment.
Either way, the two factions combined for a good chunk of pressure on the team to cut bait this summer, though they ultimately decided to hold onto their player, instead making their more significant changes behind the bench and by shuffling around the leadership group. As someone who was once considered among Marner’s biggest critics, I find this decision to make some sense. As much as I wasn’t a fan of how the team folded to an above-comparable contract ask in 2019, his deal isn’t as inefficient in 2024. As much as a younger version of him frustrated me with how he’d go into tunnel vision in the playoffs, those weren’t the issues we saw this year. Lastly, if you’re going to move a player like him, you need to be the team in control of the situation, or you’re likely going to lose out on the deal. It’s one thing to try to maximize a player’s value when he’s coveted – it’s another to try to get something for them while they’re being run out of a major market (and while trade protection gives them further control of their destination).
Given how little movement there was of top talent around the NHL this summer, it seems unlikely to me that Toronto ever got a trade offer for Marner that made sense. The team also found a way to have a busy free agency without dumping a large contract, signing names like Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Anthony Stolarz, and Max Pacioretty, so taking a bad deal to clear space likely doesn’t change their free agent calculus significantly.
Marner, to his credit, has done a decent job of keeping the temperature down over the past few months, opting for the right-to-remain-silent approach to discussing his future. This has created a couple of quick flare-ups of anger, but that seems like an inevitability at this point, and a few hours of “why won’t he speak” are a lot less harmful than days and weeks of dissecting comments.
Mitch Marner to score 100+ points
A Reasonable Expectation For 2025
Now that that’s all done with, Marner has a big season ahead of him, for a few reasons. For one, if he would like to continue playing for his childhood team beyond this season, he’ll have to win a lot of people over again, on the inside and out. He has a new coach to impress, a general manager who hasn’t been around long enough to be wholly attached to him, and a rabid crowd that has flipped him from hero to villain in recent times.
Secondly, whether it’s staying here or playing elsewhere, he has a new contract to audition for, and if his play this year shows any signs of the summer getting to him, that’ll cause a dent on the balance sheet. Lastly, he’s a prime-aged, competitive superstar who’s fallen just short of some benchmarks and presumably has a bit to prove here.
In the regular season, the big one that everyone will have their eyes on is the 100-point plateau. Marner has come oh-so-close a couple of times now, producing 97 points in 72 games in 2021/22 and 99 points in 80 games in 2022/23. In fact, he’s produced at over a 100-point pace in three consecutive seasons now, and since signing his controversial six-year contract, has averaged 101.6 points per 82 games – but has never actually hit the century mark.
| Year | GP | G | A | PTS | P/82GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 | 59 | 16 | 51 | 67 | 93 |
| 2020/21 | 55 | 20 | 47 | 67 | 100 |
| 2021/22 | 72 | 35 | 62 | 97 | 110 |
| 2022/23 | 80 | 30 | 69 | 99 | 101 |
| 2023/24 | 69 | 26 | 59 | 85 | 101 |
Could this be the year he gets above it? Currently, bet365 has Marner at +170 to meet or eclipse the 100-point plateau, the 10th-shortest odds available for a player on their market. A more straightforward, rush-based game under Craig Berube could play to his advantage as well, as Marner’s style of playmaking is very direct – someone who sets you up for the last shot rather than the link-up, multi-pass play. The biggest factors here will be sustaining his health and whether or not he’s deployed for the same minutes as he has been in previous years – Berube could decide to spread out his talent a little bit, which would subtract some opportunity to produce.
If you wanted to hedge a little bit, you could look to Marner’s individual points line of 95.5 (over -110, under -110), which is about what he averages over 77 to 78 games, buying you some wiggle room in terms of injury. You can also get him at 90+ points at -230, or at 80+ points at -450.
A market is also available for Marner’s goal line, currently set at 31.5 (+100 over, -130 under). I would be a little wary of focusing specifically on goals with him, as his shot rates have fluctuated greatly in recent years, going as high as 3.11 shots per game in 2022 to as low as 2.29 per game last year. Add new coaches into the mix, and it’s tough to say how often he’ll be the one shooting the puck, which plays a huge factor in whether or not his production specifically comes from goals.
The Great Beyond
Of course, none of the above will matter much to the city if Marner and the Leafs don’t have a strong playoff together next year. As much as the regular season makes up the majority of our watching time and entertainment, this is a market that is hungry for real playoff success, and as good as the team has been for the bulk of the past eight years, they have so little to show for it in the spring.
Contrary to the current messaging, Marner has shown at times that he can rise to the occasion. His playoff rounds against Tampa Bay in 2022 and 2023 were among some of his best hockey, and showed signs of maturity in his game, involving his teammates more and showing strength off the puck. 2023 also showed that the Leafs could beat a top opponent in a series, though their swift loss to Florida immediately afterwards undid much of that goodwill in a hurry.
But those are the cards they’ve been dealt. Management has shortened the window as such, taking on riskier medium—to long-term contracts in some cases to secure talent for today. Five, six, or seven years from now simply isn’t a concern if they’re still blowing tires on the home stretch in year nine.
Ideally, it seems that Marner would like to earn himself an opportunity to extend his contract in Toronto. It seems likely that such a decision won’t come until after the season is up, though he’s suggested a willingness on his side to do something similar to Nylander last year, who extended in January to take advantage of a hot start.
As for what a fair price looks like there, it’s early – Nylander himself is likely a comparable, as is someone like David Pastrnak in Boston, and Mikko Rantanen is a name to watch in Colorado.
Mitch Marner Odds Watch
| Trophy | Marner Odds (bet365) | Current Shortest Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Art Ross Trophy | +6000 (11th) | Connor McDavid (-180) |
| Hart Memorial Trophy | +9000 (21st) | Connor McDavid (+150) |
| Frank J. Selke Trophy | +3500 (11th) | Aleksander Barkov (+130) |
On top of his individual production props, you can also find Marner in some of the top NHL Awards markets available at the start of the year.
Currently, he finds himself in the second layer of candidates for the Art Ross Trophy (most points), Hart Memorial Trophy (league MVP) and Frank J. Selke Trophy (best defensive forward).
As such, all three of these come with pretty meaty returns, going as high as +9000 for the Hart. The question, of course, is how achievable any of these are for him.
Among players who played at least half the season, Marner has finished 11th, 12th, 8th, 8th, and 15th in points-per-game over the past five seasons, with an overall ranking of 8th. His biggest concern, frankly, is that a certain No. 97 on Edmonton exists, as he sits about as close to the 2nd-to-4th class (Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov, and Leon Draisaitl) as they sit to Connor McDavid. Marner could find himself in the thick of the race if everything goes right – but the Art Ross isn’t likely.
The Hart would likely require a very specific threshold of things to go wrong in Toronto – significant time missed to the likes of Matthews, Nylander, and Tavares, but Marner holds them in the playoff picture with elite numbers. Again, not impossible, but not probable. Marner has gotten Hart votes in two of the last four years but never finished above 13th in the final voting.
The Selke is perhaps his best shot here, and the one where I’d consider a small wager. Marner’s high motor, straightforward off-puck play has long been appealing to the hockey masses, as has his two-way success on the penalty kill. If he earns Berube’s trust and has support from a deeper blue line, he could make himself a strong case this season. Marner has earned Selke votes in six consecutive years, including a finalists nod in 2022/23 where he finished third in voting. Auston Matthews was Toronto’s primary vote-getter last year, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see the storyline flip once again.
