We’re just a few weeks away from the start of the 2024/25 National Hockey League season, with rookie tournaments already starting, preseason action beginning next week, and opening night coming on October 8th. Rosters are starting to take form – or at least are in the “concepts of a plan” stage – and those looking to get ahead of the game on the futures market will no doubt want to make their first move soon. Over the course of the summer, we’ve already started previewing bits and pieces of the league at the team and player levels, but now it’s time to dig a bit deeper.
In the second of our division-by-division breakdowns, we’ll be focusing on the Metropolitan Division.
This post is part of a series looking at all four NHL divisions. Make sure to check out all of our previews as they come!
Atlantic Division – Metropolitan Division – Central Division – Pacific Division
 | Points | Over | Under | 100+ | Make PO | Miss PO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Jersey Devils | 101.5 | -115 | -105 | -180 | -400 | +300 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 100.5 | -110 | -110 | -150 | -350 | +260 |
| New York Rangers | 100.5 | -110 | -110 | -150 | -350 | +260 |
| New York Islanders | 91.5 | -110 | -110 | +300 | -105 | -115 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 90.5 | -110 | -110 | +320 | +120 | -150 |
| Washington Capitals | 89.5 | -105 | -115 | +350 | +160 | -200 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 86.5 | -130 | +110 | +500 | +180 | -230 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 68.5 | -115 | -105 | +4500 | -550 | +375 |
While the Atlantic Division remains the gauntlet of the East, the Metropolitan cannot be scoffed at either. A trio of high-end teams are complemented by several others in the mix. There aren’t many free point nights left in the NHL, and certainly not many in the Metro.
Leading the way out of the gate, at least in the eyes of bet365 and other top Canadian online sportsbooks, are the New Jersey Devils. If you look solely at last year, it might be a bit odd to see a team that finished 23rd overall atop a division with two teams that ranked top 3 in the standings, but all signs point to a big bounceback. Goaltending has gone from a weakness to a strong point with the trade deadline acquisition of Jake Allen and the offseason acquisition of Jacob Markstrom, the latter of which projects to be the starter they’ve long needed. Sheldon Keefe takes the bench after leaving the Maple Leafs and is one of the league’s winningest coaches ever by percentage in the regular season. Stars like Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton are healthy after extended injuries. The stars are aligning for a great year here.
Over in Carolina, the Hurricanes have taken a step back, losing noteworthy pieces like Teuvo Teravainen (Chicago), Brady Skjei (Nashville), and Brett Pesce (coincidentally, to New Jersey), though they’ve mitigated some of the damage by bringing in players like Shayne Gostisbehere, Sean Walker, and Jack Roslovic. The Canes’ success will likely be dependent on whether younger talent like Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi can find even further gears to their games.
The New York Rangers were last year’s Presidents’ Trophy winners and pushed their way to the Eastern Conference Final, before falling to the Florida Panthers. Team captain Jacob Trouba spoke yesterday of this likely being the last year for this core – a peculiar thought given that none of their top skaters are due to hit free agency this year and that Igor Shesterkin is expected to extend, but if that motivates them, all the better. Their adjustments were mostly on the peripheral, losing depth talent and adding similar. If Shesterkin has the Vezina-calibre season people expect of him, they’ll be right back in the fight.
A few miles away, many are interested to see how the Islanders look with a full season of Patrick Roy behind the bench. The team went 20-12-5 after moving on from Lane Lambert as head coach last year, good for just under a 100-point pace. They didn’t change much within their roster, signing Anthony Duclair out of Tampa Bay but largely staying with the same core group. Could a year of consistency and better early-season overtime luck be all they need to return to a competitive state?
Others remain in the fight behind them. The Pittsburgh Penguins are committed to finding a way back into the playoffs, hoping that the likes of Kevin Hayes, Cody Glass, Anthony Beauvillier, and Matt Grzelcyk will shore up their depth. Rutger McGroarty is a rookie name to watch, having been acquired from Winnipeg, though he might start his season in the AHL for paper reasons. Sidney Crosby is locked into making this work, signing a two-year extension earlier this week, but can they push forward for him? Knowing that the team missed the playoffs last year despite fully healthy years from himself, Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson, and Kris Letang has to be a bit concerning.
The Washington Capitals were arguably the worst playoff team in 2023/24, and they were quickly reminded of that as they were unceremoniously bounced in Round 1. Of course, you can argue that another Stanley Cup is a secondary task for them, as they push to get Alexander Ovechkin to the all-time goals record. Currently, the 39-year-old sits 41 goals away from Wayne Gretzky’s 894 tallies. The Caps were aggressive in trying to get him some help this summer, acquiring the likes of Pierre-Luc Dubois from Los Angeles, Andrew Mangiapane from Calgary, and Jakob Chychrun from Ottawa. Moves to push that cause forward will double as help to the actual roster – whether it’s enough to make them sustainably better remains to be seen.
The Philadelphia Flyers are another big “maybe” – are they the team that smashed everyone’s expectations by hanging around the playoff race for most of last year, or are they the one whose bubble burst in the final weeks? Flyers fans understand that they’re still in some form of a rebuilding phase and aren’t going to lose sleep if the team doesn’t have another huge leap this year, though excitement is high, particularly for Calder Trophy threat Matvei Michkov.
Lastly, we have the Columbus Blue Jackets, who are heavily expected to be the division’s worst team. With that said, the circumstances are more than understood by the hockey world. Already in the midst of the rebuild and having just moved out Patrik Laine to Montreal to fulfill his trade request, the organization was crushed by the tragic news of star forward Johnny Gaudreau’s passing in late August at the hands of a drunk and aggressive driver. Any success that happens in the season will be found money, and any struggles understood.
| Line | 23/24 | YoY | xGF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Jersey Devils | 101.5 | 81 | 20.5 | 51.66 | 99.4 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 100.5 | 111 | -10.5 | 56.93 | 99.1 |
| New York Rangers | 100.5 | 114 | -13.5 | 49.04 | 99.9 |
| New York Islanders | 91.5 | 94 | -2.5 | 49.6 | 100.9 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 90.5 | 88 | 2.5 | 51.24 | 99.7 |
| Washington Capitals | 89.5 | 91 | -1.5 | 47.43 | 99.6 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 86.5 | 87 | -0.5 | 52.44 | 97.1 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 68.5 | 66 | 2.5 | 46.13 | 100.2 |
PDO: A combination of Shooting and Save % at 5v5. Large deviations from 100.0 can be signs of fortune/misfortune.
Most of the projected movement here surrounds the top three teams, which isn’t a huge surprise.
As we mentioned before, New Jersey is expected to be a big riser due to its additions and changes, but also because last year failed to meet expectations. They were projected to be right in the thick of the Presidents’ Trophy race even with their goaltending in question, but the failure to address that area, combined with tons of man-games lost to their best players, was a quick and swift death blow to expectations.
So, in a sense, the books projecting a 20+ point jump isn’t a leap of faith, but rather standing pat on past expectations, mixed in with a bit of bolstering of what they were missing before.
Carolina and New York both receive drops that can largely be amounted to smoothing in projections. Presidents’ Trophy-like seasons usually come from playing beyond anyone’s reasonable expectations, and no book is going to project a team to win at a 110-point or higher clip – it’s just too easy for things to go wrong and for “under” bettors to cash. Carolina’s slight roster downgrade also plays a factor in their projection, coming in a few points lower than last fall’s preseason projection of 107.5.
The Rangers I could see exceeding their totals, if Shesterkin’s results look closer to his late-season form than his early-season. I don’t know that a second consecutive Presidents’ Trophy is in the cards, but a 13.5-point fall is a lot of buffer room given that the player who can most impact their results wasn’t at his best last year.
The Islanders get a do-over, sitting at the same spot as they were at this time last year, suggesting that the books aren’t sold that Roy is going to catapult the team to long-term success. Not being able to get it done last year with a healthy superstar quadrant in Pittsburgh has set the Penguins back, with their line dropping by six points.
Washington’s line has improved from last year, but even with all their new additions, there isn’t a lot of confidence they’ll finish with a better record than they had last season. I think that’s pretty reasonable, as they weren’t exactly a team that controlled games, and really stumbled their way into the final playoff spot last season. If nothing else, they should at least be more enjoyable to watch from a neutral’s perspective.
Philadelphia takes a big leap over last year’s projection of 75.5 points, but are placed at about the same as they finished last year. This also seems reasonable, as 2023/24 felt like a bit of an overachievement, but it’s clear the team is heading in a positive direction.
Lastly, Columbus has a lower projection than last year, but are projected to finish with more points than last year’s team. It’s incredibly hard to project what they’ll be and how they’ll react to the blows they’ve received this summer, so I’d probably just let their year run its course without getting too heavy into the action.
Confidently Over:
Confidently Under:
Feeling Over: New Jersey Devils, New York Rangers
Feeling Under: Carolina Hurricanes
Use Your Judgement: Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals
Let It Play Out: Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders
| Win Division | Pres Trophy | Stanley Cup |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Jersey Devils | +180 | +1200 | +900 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +210 | +1400 | +1100 |
| New York Rangers | +260 | +1400 | +1300 |
| New York Islanders | +1400 | +5000 | +4500 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +1500 | +5500 | +5000 |
| Washington Capitals | +1400 | +8000 | +5000 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | +1600 | +10000 | +5000 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +10000 | +35000 | +20000 |
I’m ready to be hurt again. Last year, I thought that the Devils would acquire their goalie early in the season – Markstrom, Connor Hellebuyck and Juuse Saros were all in trade rumours – and that they’d play close to their upside, winning the Division, challenging for the Presidents’ Trophy, and potentially winning the Stanley Cup.
In fact, that’s where my Stanley Cup betting money went before opening night. Sure enough, everything went wrong and they didn’t even make the playoffs. But we’re unphased. This team is very good, they shouldn’t have the same injury luck, and I think Markstrom has at least one more good season in him, with Allen available to be a solid backup or 1B. Keefe’s teams are unproven in the playoffs at the NHL level, but he’s always gotten the best out of them in the fall and winter, so I think they’re a good bet to win the division, and maybe even challenge for first overall.
Can they go further than that? It’s harder to say. At that point, I’d be willing to look at a more battle-tested team like the Rangers as a potential cup pick, having had a few cracks at this before and having arguably the best goaltender in the East, if not the league, as their x-factor. Carolina, even with their downgrades, is impossible to fully dismiss. Heck, if Pittsburgh can figure out a way to squeak back in, their top end guys have shown the capacity to be drivers come playoff time, though I’m skeptical of their odds of getting in.
Ultimately, if I’m backing a team with my money this year, I’m either going back to New Jersey or buying into whatever Last Dance narrative they’re weaving on Broadway.
Check back in the coming days as we continue our trip around the league with the Central Division.
