Toronto has been a 100-plus point team for the last three years, and sportsbooks expect that to continue, setting their 2024-25 regular season point total at 102.5. However, the Maple Leafs’ Stanley Cup odds are the longest they’ve been in that span.
| Maple Leafs Futures | Sports Interaction | bet365 |
|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Points | Total: 102.5 Over: -115 Under: -115 | Total: 102.5 Over: -110 Under: -110 |
| Playoffs | Yes: -350 No: +280 | Yes: -450 No: +320 |
| Atlantic Division | +270 | +250 |
| Eastern Conference | +800 | +750 |
| Win Stanley Cup | +1500 | +1400 |
Last Season
The Maple Leafs made several changes for the 2023-24 season, including a new GM and a focus on toughness with additions like Max Domi, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Ryan Reaves. Despite being tougher, their defence regressed, allowing more shot attempts and expected goals against per 60 minutes than in recent years. Offensively, they remained one of the league’s best, and if their 2024 offseason moves improve the defence, their standings should follow. But once the playoffs start, all bets are off—Toronto is coming off its seventh first-round exit in eight years.
Offence
Auston Matthews set a new franchise record with 69 goals, marking his second 60-plus goal, 100-plus point season in three years, and was recently named captain. Sportsbooks like bet365 have set his 2024 totals at 55.5 goals and 101.5 points. In a contract year, William Nylander recorded his second consecutive 40-goal season and a career-high 98 points, with projections of 38.5 goals and 92.5 points for the upcoming season. Mitch Marner was on pace for a third straight 90-point season but missed time, playing just 69 games. Meanwhile, John Tavares had his lowest points-per-game output since his rookie season.
The Maple Leafs were the league’s second-best team in goals per 60 minutes in 2023-24, but Matthews, Nylander, Marner, and Tavares accounted for 55% of their goals, a share that has increased over the past two seasons. In contrast, top teams like Colorado, Edmonton, Dallas, and Tampa Bay have more balanced scoring. Toronto has been a top-10 scoring team since 2016-17, but there can be fluctuations from year to year. In 2022-23, they finished ninth in scoring, highlighting what happens when the core four aren’t hitting career highs in goals and points.
Marner is entering the final year of his six-year contract, and his early play in the season will likely dictate whether the Maple Leafs will offer an extension or explore trade options. Before last season, Marner had back-to-back campaigns in which he scored 30-plus goals and 97-plus points. This season, Marner’s regular season totals are set at 31.5 goals and 95.5 points, which is fair, but some pundits will see it as a slight because he does have the talent to score more.
| Player | Points | Over | Under | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 101.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
| Mitch Marner | 95.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
| William Nylander | 92.5 | -110 | -110 | Sports Interaction |
| Matthew Knies | 48.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
Toronto parted ways with 21-goal scorer Tyler Bertuzzi after just one season, but Matthew Knies is a good bet to produce more goals (15) and points (35) playing alongside Matthews and Marner. That said, the betting market is accounting for it already. His regular season totals are set at 18.5 goals and 48.5 points. The team is also hoping that players like Max Domi, Nick Robertson, and Bobby McMann can repeat, or even build on, their performances last season, but that’s a lot to be asking for. Scoring more goals on the power play is one way that the Maple Leafs could alleviate some of the pressure, and thankfully the Maple Leafs have made some changes after scoring just one powerplay goal in their first-round loss to the Bruins last season.
Defence
The Maple Leafs are now three seasons removed from their last top-10 finish in expected goals against, according to Evolving Hockey. They also ranked in the bottom half of the league at 5-on-5 for preventing shot attempts and high-danger chances, per Natural Stat Trick. Over the last three seasons, Toronto has ranked 21st, 7th, and 19th in goals against per 60 minutes, but this season should be different.
Joel Edmundson and John Klingberg are gone, and general manager Brad Treliving has brought in two strong defenders: Chris Tanev and Jani Hakanpaa. While Hakanpaa is recovering from a knee injury, Tanev will significantly boost Toronto’s even-strength defence and could help improve their 23rd-ranked penalty kill. Stanley Cup champion Oliver Ekman-Larsson has also joined to strengthen the special teams. Though somewhat one-dimensional, Ekman-Larsson scored nine goals and 32 points in 80 games last season and led all Panthers defenders in power play points per 60 minutes during their playoff run.
These new additions should take some pressure off of Morgan Reilly, but it might be a mistake to swap out Simon for OEL on the second pair alongside Jake McCabe. Benoit and McCabe controlled 54 percent of the high-danger shots and nearly 57 percent of the scoring in over 500 minutes of 5-on-5 play last season, but maybe Benoit is responsible enough to pair with Timothy Liljegren. Regardless, Toronto should be in a good position to accomplish its goal of allowing fewer goals, but it’s still very dependent on goaltending, which is unproven.
Goaltending
Joseph Woll ranks 14th in save percentage among goalies who have played at least 1,500 minutes over the last two seasons. However, he’s struggled to stay healthy. He looked every bit like an NHL starter in the playoffs, posting a .964 save percentage in three games against the Bruins. But, once again, an injury sidelined him. The 26-year-old has the potential to be a great starter, having saved his team nearly 15 goals above expected in the past two seasons. Yet, he’s only played 36 career games and has never started more than 24 in a single season.
Anthony Stolarz also hasn’t started more than 24 games in a season, but he has proven to be a reliable backup in his 108-game NHL career. Last season, the 30-year-old saved the Florida Panthers almost 22 goals above expected, according to Evolving Hockey. This likely led to him signing with the Maple Leafs in the offseason. Stolarz likely would have earned a starting role sooner if not for being stuck behind John Gibson in Anaheim for four seasons. He should provide Woll with healthy competition, and vice versa. Both goaltenders should see their workloads increase significantly.
Prediction
Toronto has consistently hit 100-plus points in recent seasons, and our model projects them to finish the 2024-25 regular season with 103 points. This gives them a nearly 90% chance of making the playoffs and close to a 40% chance of winning the division. With Tampa Bay and Boston likely to decline, the Maple Leafs have a real shot at winning the Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference, or even the Presidents’ Trophy. But, as always, what matters most is how they perform in the playoffs.
