How The Linus Ullmark Extension Impacts the Ottawa Senators

While the Ottawa Senators are the only one of the seven Canadian NHL teams to not be in action Wednesday night, fans of the team have plenty to talk about, as the team announced a four-year contract extension for recently-acquired starting goaltender Linus Ullmark. The deal carries an Annual Average Value (AAV) of $8.25 million. It’s a steep investment in hopes of locking down a long-standing hole in the organization’s depth chart – but does it make sense for them?

The Rising Tide In Goal

Ullmark’s signing comes among a flurry of significant goaltending moves across the league over the past few days. The tidal wave began on Sunday in Ullmark’s former home, as the Boston Bruins agreed to terms with Jeremy Swayman on an eight-year contract. Swayman’s negotiations had become very bitter and very public over the summer, hitting a tipping point the week prior when Bruins president Cam Neely sounded off about how there were “64 million reasons” why the negotiations should be over and done with. Eventually, the restricted free agent accepted 66 million reasons, also getting an $8.25 million AAV over double the term.

On Tuesday, Kevin Weekes reported that Igor Shesterkin, who currently stands as the favourite to win the Vezina Trophy, rejected an extension offer from the New York Rangers that would make him the highest-paid goaltender in history, at $11 million per year over a max eight-year term. Elite Prospects’ Cam Robinson suggests that Shesterkin would prefer a shorter term, which seems counter-intuitive for a player being offered such a lucrative deal that takes him to 37 years old.

Lastly, at nearly the same time as Ullmark’s deal was announced, the Seattle Kraken signed Joey Daccord to a five-year extension at a $5-million cap hit. Daccord, himself a former Senator, had a breakout year in 2023/24, posting a .916 save percentage over 50 games and 46 starts. Still, given that he has just 69 NHL games played at 28 years old, many are confused by the commitment.

The push seems to be a case of teams following the lead of the Stanley Cup champions, as is tradition. In this case, it’s organizations looking at the success that Sergei Bobrovsky has had in the last two years in Florida and hoping they can recreate it themselves. This philosophy does require you to turn the other cheek to much of the term of his seven-year, $70 million contract, but it seems that teams are willing to pay a premium if they think they’ll get one or two strong runs out of the term.

Is Ullmark Worth It?

This brings us to Ullmark and the Senators. Ottawa has spent the last several years talking a big talk about a return to the playoffs, and making moves in an effort to facilitate that. Unfortunately, goaltender acquisitions like Matt Murray and Joonas Korpisalo, brought in to provide a last line of defence, have not gone very well for the team in recent years, and they’ve been on the outside looking in since their Cinderella run to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2017.

This year, they’ve decided to tier upward and acquire Ullmark, who has been one of the league’s best goaltenders over the past five years, paying a first-round pick for his services, along with Mark Kastelic and the aforementioned Korpisalo.

Ullmark has posted save percentages of at least .915 in every year since 2019/20, back when he was with the Buffalo Sabres. In 2022/23, he exploded, helping drive the Bruins’ push to the best regular season record in history. He posted a 40-6-1 record, a .938 save percentage, an insane 90% quality start rate, and a 1.89 goals against average, earning him a split of the Jennings Trophy with Swayman and his first Vezina Trophy. Last year, he pivoted to the 1B of the tandem, but still produced a very respectable .915 save percentage, 2.57 goals against average, and 67% quality start rate, earning him a sixth-place finish in Vezina voting.

The hope is that Ullmark is more than a product of the Boston system, perhaps given credence by his final 55+ games in Buffalo still coming with quality results. Ottawa, who had the second-lowest save percentage in the NHL last year, could stand a lot to gain from a 30-point jump, which would be in line with Ullmark’s recent history. It would create a huge swing in goal differential, and while an Atlantic Division playoff spot is still a very tough task, this will help them close the 16-point gap from last year.

The biggest concern will be his lack of a heavy workload. The 31-year-old has yet to play a 50-game regular season at the pro level, often being used in 1A/1B tandems rather than given a true starter’s rope. That choice has likely been good for his body, but is he ready for the mental shift to becoming a full-on starter? Some might suggest that Ottawa should have been best off to get an extended look at how that looks before giving him an elite talent’s salary, though having the player satisfied and willing today was likely enticing to them. Keeping the term closer to the mid-level at four years softens some of that risk.

Senators Odds Update

Unsurprisingly, the Senators’ futures odds haven’t been impacted by this signing. One, it just happened, and two, he was already slated to be in the lineup, as this extension begins next year rather than this one. One could argue that getting it out of the way is good for him from a peace of mind perspective, but that’s nearly impossible to quantify.

According to bet365, the Senators remain at +110 odds to make the playoffs, +1100 to win the Atlantic Division, and +4000 to win the Stanley Cup. Ullmark himself sits at +1800 to win the Vezina Trophy, and +10000 to take the Hart Trophy as the league MVP.

If you wanted to bet on a strong season debut for Ullmark and the Senators, you could look to tomorrow’s game. They take on the Florida Panthers and have +120 odds on the moneyline.