After an offseason of speculation, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ depth puzzle pieces are starting to come together. The team announced several transactions over the past few days that solved some problems in the depths of their lineup but could also create new ones. Let’s look at the impacts at play here and whether or not it’s made any difference in their National Hockey League odds going into this season.
Robertson Saga Settled For Now
Nick Robertson finally has a contract. After requesting a trade in the early summer, the winger, who turned 23 yesterday, signed a 1-year, $875,000 extension on Tuesday that puts him back in the lineup for this year.
Or does it? Frank Seravalli from our friends at Daily Faceoff suggests that even with a signed contract, a trade isn’t off the table for Robertson, who still wants a change of scenery, and that getting a contract signed might make it easier to move the player. Darren Dreger of TSN feels that Toronto wanted to get ahead of a potential offer sheet.
Honestly, I’m not really sold on either theory, though they could work in tandem if an acquiring team is worried about trading for him and him immediately signing an offer sheet. If that were the case, you’d imagine that the signing and trade would’ve come in one fell swoop. Not to mention, the math doesn’t work here. If a team wanted to offer sheet Robertson, they’ve had two and a half months to get there.
What I think is likely here is that the Leafs have told Robertson and his camp that they won’t take their ears away from the ground on a deal just yet but don’t plan to move him, hoping that a new coach and new lineup opportunity wins his trust back. Ultimately, the contract takes away his last piece of leverage – not reporting and not playing – and for a team that lacks goals along the left wing, moving a player who was top 20 in goals per hour at 5-on-5 last year and makes barely over league minimum doesn’t make a world of sense for them, short of a big offer. Given that Robertson is an undersized forward who hasn’t played a full season or put up gaudy numbers yet – just shown some potential to get there – the trade market likely isn’t all that persuasive.
It’s in Toronto’s best interest to play hardball here, even if they have to pretend like they’re doing otherwise.
Pacioretty, Lorentz Sign PTOs
Should something change with Robertson, though, or should the Leafs decide that it’s finally time to place offensive depth across the lineup, the team appears to have lined up a second option in Max Pacioretty. The 35-year-old joined a list of Professional Tryouts that has rapidly grown since we discussed the climate around the league a few days ago. Pacioretty’s agent, the always colourful Alan Walsh, tweeted that Pacioretty already plans to sign a contract with the Leafs following his PTO, suggesting that the team has moves to make to squeeze him in but that he’s willing to get acclimated first.
As mentioned when I broke down Toronto’s left-wing options a few weeks back, there’s potential for a buy-low here on Pacioretty. If they can get him on top of keeping Robertson happy, that’s a positive turn of events for their most shallow position. Pacioretty, who has slowed down a bit following his second Achilles injury of his career, had an uncharacteristically poor finishing year last season, scoring just four goals on 95 shots on goal. Historically, he was an 11 to 11.5% shooter over his career, but in 2023/24, he converted at just a 4.2% clip. He’d have tallied an extra 7-8 goals at his career average, bringing him a little closer to the type of season you’d expect from him.
The days of Pacioretty being a 30+ goal, 60-70 point pace player are likely behind him, but if Toronto can get half of that in a sheltered role, they’d likely be very happy.
Also signed to a PTO back on September 3rd was Steven Lorentz, who won a Stanley Cup with the Florida Panthers last year. I’m less convinced that this one will matter outside of giving them another veteran to dress in exhibition games. The Florida attachment is nice, as is his six-foot-four frame, but 43 points in 240 career games is hardly inspiring, nor is his primary use case for the Panthers being “Sergei Bobrovsky’s warmup guy” in practice. Maybe he shows he has more to give over the coming weeks and locks in at a minimum deal if Toronto needs to shed significant money at the bottom. Still, it’s more likely that Toronto can use the body for a few weeks and the Kitchener native can use his local team to audition to the other 31 clubs.
Maple Leafs to hit 101.5 points in 2024/25
Hakanpaa Finally Signs
At the start of free agency, it was reported that the Maple Leafs were about to sign defenceman Jani Hakanpaa to a two-year contract at a $1.5 million cap hit. This excited many people, as his six-foot-six, 225-pound frame combined with a right-handed shot usually draws a lot of attention at this level, but concerns immediately arose. The Toronto Sun’s Steve Simmons reported concerns about Hakanpaa’s knee surgery and his ability to play in the league for much longer. Then Hakanpaa was seen doing promotional events in Finland while still wearing his Dallas Stars gear. Most importantly, the signing was just… never announced.
It finally became official this week, with slightly different terms than originally reported. Hakanpaa is now signing for one year instead of two, and at a cap hit that’s a whopping $30,000 lower. The $1.47 million final number doesn’t seem to have much significance—the buriable limit, for example, is $1.15 million. But money saved is money saved.
I like this version of the deal a lot more than the previous one. While there’s potential for Hakanpaa to parlay a big year into a big raise – ask Joel Edmundson and Ilya Lyubushkin what a few months of being tough and tolerable in blue and white did for their market value this summer – a second year that’s above the buriable threshold is a risk for a player who might be slowed down further by injuries if reports are accurate. I’m not sold on his ability to be an impact addition to the team. Still, if he scratches the itch for a big, physical “box out” player without the team spending half a draft class on chasing that archetype at the trade deadline again, it’s a tolerable pill to swallow. In the best-case scenario, he becomes cheap and effective at a specific role, and the team can focus its pursuits elsewhere for the rest of the year.
What Next?
The Maple Leafs are now in a tight spot going into the start of the season, with just over $30,000 in cap space (the amount saved by Hakanpaa’s salary haircut) remaining, assuming a roster of 13 forwards, seven defencemen, and two goaltenders. This, right off the hop, assumes that Connor Timmins is either waived or moved to shed his $1.1 million cap hit.
To squeeze in Pacioretty and/or Lorentz, they’ll have to move out and/or waive an equal amount of forwards at a similar or greater cap hit. Early candidates on the chopping block include David Kampf ($2.4 million AAV for three more years), Calle Jarnkrok ($2.1M/2Y), and Ryan Reaves ($1.35M/2Y). The preference on who to move seems to vary from person to person. For me, I’d have no issue with trading or waiving Reaves to make the first roster spot for Pacioretty, and then look towards moving one of Kampf or Jarnkrok for the second spot if necessary to either bring in Lorentz or keep someone like Easton Cowan around for a rookie taste of the NHL, should he impress in camp.
The Kampf or Jarnkrok debate really depends on how much you weigh their regular season work against their playoff stat lines. Kampf saw a decline in both his offensive and defensive prowess last regular season and saw a decline in minutes because of it, though you wonder how much of that was from having to play with worse linemates. A goal in the playoffs has him in many fans’ good books. Jarnkrok has been a cost-effective member of the team since signing two years ago, producing at a half-point-per-game clip for just $2.1 million, but a goose egg against Boston has done his reputation no favours. I value Jarnkrok’s versatility over Kampf’s specialty, but your own mileage may vary. Either way, moving from one or the other along with Reaves buys you the cap space you need to add Pacioretty and one more player while still leaving some room to accrue cap for adds later in the season.
Needle Stays Flat On The Books
With all of these moves, you might be wondering if the betting markets have gotten any hotter on the Maple Leafs over the last few days.
As it turns out, the money-movers aren’t as concerned about the fringes of the roster as the diehard fans are. Toronto remains approximately +1400 to win the Stanley Cup (though bet365 is currently boosting them to +1600), +1100 to finish first overall in the regular season and win the Presidents’ Trophy, +250 to win the Atlantic Division, and -370 to make the playoffs. The juice on their points line of 101.5 has shifted slightly in recent weeks to -115, but that doesn’t seem to have been influenced by anything they’ve done.
