In the two seasons since Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau, and MacKenzie Weegar arrived in Calgary, the Flames’ expectations have shifted from division title contenders to fringe playoff team and now to draft lottery participants. But after falling short the last two seasons, could they be more than just participants in this year’s draft lottery? The top Canadian sportsbooks have the Flames pegged for 81.5 points, and only six teams have better odds of finishing with the worst record in 2024-25.
| Calgary Flames Futures | Sports Interaction | bet365 |
|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Points | Total: 81.5 Over: -115 Under: -115 | Total: 81.5 Over: +110 Under: -143 |
| Playoffs | Yes: +325 No: -400 | Yes: +290 No: -390 |
| Pacific Division | +4000 | +2200 |
| Western Conference | +5000 | +3300 |
| Win Stanley Cup | +10000 | +6600 |
Last Season
For a team that has historically been hesitant to embrace a rebuild, the Flames have fully committed to the idea over the past year. They traded Elias Lindholm, Nikita Zadorov, Noah Hanifin, and Chris Tanev at various points during the season, leading to a disappointing finish of 81 points (38-39-5) after oddsmakers set their regular season total at 94.5 points. Calgary finished fifth in the Pacific Division and missed the playoffs for the second consecutive year. As soon as the offseason began, the team traded forward Andrew Mangiapane and starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom in separate deals.
Offence
The Flames’ offence appeared decent, ranking mid-pack in goals per 60 across all situations. However, if they had been truly average offensively, they would have scored more. Despite consistently ranking high in shots and expected goals, Calgary lacks the scoring touch of other teams with similar stats.
Nazem Kadri is Calgary’s top player, but the team lacks a superstar. At 33, Kadri’s 29 goals and 75 points in 2023-24 were likely his ceiling, and the betting market expects some regression. Blake Coleman is also a candidate for decline, with his shooting percentage jumping from 8.5% to 15.8%, resulting in 30 goals last season—unsustainable numbers. Jonathan Huberdeau, meanwhile, shows little promise for a rebound. After back-to-back seasons with 55 and 52 points, it’s clear he’s no longer the player he was in Florida. The team brought in Anthony Mantha and Ryan Lomberg, but the former has “trade bait” written all over his one-year deal, especially if he turns heads by answering head coach Ryan Huska’s challenge to shoot 300 pucks this season.
| Player | Points | Over | Under | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri | 65.5 | -110 | -110 | Sports Interaction |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 55.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
| Jonathan Huberdeau | 54.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
Calgary just doesn’t have many players with upside. Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil found chemistry playing with Kadri, but that line’s underlying metrics don’t necessarily back up its goal differential. Yegor Sharangovich had a breakout season, with 31 goals and 59 points, but it’ll be tough for the 26-year-old to replicate those totals. However, one player that everyone should have an eye on is Andrei Kuzmenko. The 28-year-old scored 47 goals and 95 points in 124 games with the Vancouver Canucks, including 39 goals and 74 points in 2022.23, before being traded to Calgary last season. Kuzmenko scored 14 goals and 25 points in his first 29 games with the Flames.
The Flames might still be a so-so team on offence, but that wasn’t good enough when they had one of the stronger defence corps in the Western Conference and those days are long gone.
Defence
Calgary ranked among the bottom-10 teams in expected goals against at 5-on-5 last season, and they went 7-13 following the trade deadline and the tear down their blue line. MacKenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson are the only two proven players that the Flames have on the backend heading into the season. Weegar developed good chemistry with Daniil Miromanov on the team’s top pairing, but the 27-year-old is still a relatively unknown player. Meanwhile, Andersson is likely to be part of future trade rumours. The team did add a shutdown defender in Kevin Bahl as part of the Markstrom trade and a reclamation project in Jake Bean, but don’t get attached to any of these players. It’ll be a while before the Flames will be a serious threat, and the team will undergo many changes between now and then.
Goaltending
Markstrom ranked third in goals saved above expected, according to Evolving Hockey, but not even he could save the Flames, going 23-23-5. Why would rookie goaltender Dustin Wolf fare better or a worse team? That’s the mindset that sportsbooks are going with, setting Wolf’s regular season total at 20.5 wins.
Dustin Wolf – 19.5 wins
The reigning American Hockey League MVP, who posted a 97-32-10 record and a .926 save percentage in 141 career AHL contests, currently has the seventh-best Calder Trophy odds at 11/1. However, Wolf is undersized, and the start to his NHL career has been underwhelming. His 7-7-1 record was respectable, but five of his seven wins came against the bottom-five teams in the NHL in the season’s final two months. According to Evolving Hockey, Wolf posted an .894 save percentage and allowed almost eight goals more than an average goaltender would have had they faced the same shots. Besides, there’s no guarantee he’ll beat out Dan Vladar for the starting job.
Prediction
As bad as the Flames were last season, there were still eight teams below them in the standings, and at least a handful of those teams improved over the summer. Calgary still isn’t as bad as San Jose, Anaheim, or Columbus, but one or two of those teams will likely start to close the gap. Utah (Arizona) and Seattle also project to be much better than Calgary, and Chicago is the most improved team according to the betting market. Our model has Calgary finishing with approximately 82 points on average, which means there’s about a 90 percent chance that the Flames will miss the playoffs for a third consecutive season.
