We officially have a series. What felt almost impossible a week ago is now looking like a potential reality, as the Edmonton Oilers have turned a 3-0 deficit into a more manageable 3-2 gap. The pressure wasn’t on the Florida Panthers to close out going into Games 4 and 5, but suddenly, the Stanley Cup doesn’t feel like it has a safe call for a victor. Here’s what the Oilers need to do to force a Game 7 on Monday and what the Panthers need to do to avoid that fate and secure their first championship in franchise history.
Bet on Panthers vs. Oilers GM 6
The moneyline favourites are the Oilers, coming in between -115 and -133 on the top Canadian Sportsbooks.
Panthers vs. Oilers Best Odds
| Panthers Moneyline Odds | +108 @ Pinnacle |
| Oilers Moneyline Odds | -115 @ Caesars |
| Puckline odds | Oilers -1.5 (+222) @ Caesars Panthers +1.5 (-245) @ Pinnacle |
| Series odds | Oilers +275, Panthers -350 @ Bet365 |
| Total | Over 5.5 goals (-102) @ Pinnacle Under 5.5 goals (-105) @ BetMGM |
| Time/Date | June 21, 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: CBC, Sportsnet, TVA Sports Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
Last Matchup
History repeated itself on Tuesday night as the Oilers got the party started with yet another game-opening shorthanded goal. This time, with Brett Kulak in the box, Connor Brown found himself on a breakaway and buried his second tally of the playoffs and the period’s lone goal. The second period was a bit more hectic, with Zach Hyman and Connor McDavid widening the gap to three, only for Matthew Tkachuk to respond with a slump-busting goal of his own. Corey Perry restored the Edmonton lead to three following a jaw-dropping McDavid rush, only for Evan Rodrigues to respond back a little over ten seconds later.
Edmonton had reason to feel nervous early in the third period, when Oliver Ekman-Larsson made it a one-goal game but settled down and minimized Florida’s opportunity from there. An incredible sprawling effort from Tkachuk almost prevented the Oilers from getting the dagger empty netter they needed, but McDavid was able to scoop it up and send the series back to Alberta.
Betting Florida Panthers (15-7 SU, 10-12 ATS, 10-12 o/u)
Ahead of last game, we called for a big night from Matthew Tkachuk, and so did he, stressing that he needed to have his best game of the series on Tuesday. To his credit, he absolutely did, picking up a goal, an assist, and making one of the most impressive defensive plays many of us have ever seen by diving to prevent an empty netter in the late third period.
For it to amount to another loss, though, will be a test of one’s fortitude – especially the empty net goal, where a replay shows nearly everyone else on the team already given up on the play, allowing for McDavid’s quick re-deposit.
One player who will need to give Tkachuk some help tonight is Carter Verhaeghe. After storming out of the gate with five goals in the first round and five more up to Game 1 of the final, including three game-winners across the ten total, Verhaeghe has been pointless since Game 2 and a putrid -9 in his last three games.
Betting Edmonton Oilers (14-9 SU, 9-14 ATS, 12-11 o/u)
It will be hard to go against Connor McDavid winning the Conn Smythe Trophy after Tuesday’s performance, no matter what happens the rest of the way. The generational forward has vaulted up the rankings and is the odds-on favourite now (-320 at Bet365), despite Edmonton still being seen as likely to lose this series.
Should they come all the way back, it’s a no-brainer. Even if they don’t, McDavid now has the most assists in a single playoff run and is just five behind the record for the most points. That feels like a lot of ground to cover in a game or two, but given that he picked up eight in Games 4 and 5, it’s not out of reach. Should McDavid win the playoff MVP despite his team losing, he’ll be the first to accomplish this since Anaheim goaltender Jean-Sebastian Giguere in 2003 and the first skater to do so since Reggie Leach of the 1976 Philadelphia Flyers.
McDavid will need some help tonight, though. Leon Draisaitl still feels tepid with no goals in his last seven games, as does Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who scored in Game 4 but has been pointless and a -5 beyond that.
Projected Panthers vs. Oilers Lines
| Today’s Florida Panthers Lines | Today’s Edmonton Oilers Lines |
|---|---|
| Forwards Carter Verhaeghe – Aleksander Barkov – Sam Reinhart Evan Rodrigues – Sam Bennett – Matthew Tkachuk Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Vladimir Tarasenko Ryan Lomberg – Kevin Stenlund – Nick Cousins Defence Gustav Forsling – Aaron Ekblad Niko Mikkola – Brandon Montour Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Dmitry Kulikov Starting In Goal Sergei Bobrovsky Playoffs: 15-5-2, 2.35 GAA, 0.906 SV% Season: 36-17-4, 2.37 GAA, 0.915 SV% | Forwards Warren Foegele – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Leon Drasaitl – Dylan Holloway Mattias Janmark – Adam Henrique – Connor Brown Ryan McLeod – Derek Ryan – Corey Perry Defence Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard Darnell Nurse – Philip Broberg Brett Kulak – Cody Ceci Starting In Goal Stuart Skinner Playoffs: 13-7-1, 2.53 GAA, 0.898 SV% Season: 36-16-5, 2.62 GAA, 0.905 SV% |
Not a lot is changing across the two teams. The one roster move we’ve seen telegraphed so far is the likely inclusion of Nick Cousins for Florida, with veteran Kyle Okposo drawing out. We’ll see if either team makes any last-second tweaks in the coming hours.
Connor McDavid to score a goal in Game 6
Panthers vs. Oilers Injury Concerns
There don’t appear to be any health-related changes for either side, with Evander Kane making some progress on the Oilers but unlikely to draw in.
NHL Betting Trends
- The two teams have split their last ten games, going 5-5 since February 2022. Florida has a 6-4 edge against the puckline. The over has hit in five of ten games on Total Goals, with four unders and a push.
- The Oilers have played their last ten games more or less down the middle, with a 5-5 straight-up record, a 4-6 record against the puckline, and a 5-5 split on total goals.
- The Panthers are 6-4 in their last ten games, with a 3-7 record against the puckline and a total goals record of four overs and six unders.
NHL Player Prop Trends
- The legend of Connor McDavid continues to grow. Edmonton’s captain leads them in goals (5), assists (14), points (19) and shots on goal (37) over their last ten games, including eleven points in this series. Also in the point-per-game territory in this Final is Evan Bouchard, who has five assists.
- Sam Bennett continues to lead the Panthers in scoring across their last ten games, with four goals (tied with Sam Reinhart and Evan Rodrigues) and nine points. Rodrigues is the only Panther at or above a point per game in this series (4G, 2A).
- Alexander Barkov and Anton Lundell share the Florida lead in assists with six a piece, while Mathew Tkachuk has taken the most shots on goal in that stretch with 36.
Panthers vs. Oilers Predictions
- Connor McDavid is in a spot now where you have to consider his props, no matter how lofty the expectation or how long the line. The best value for him to get over 1.5 points tonight is on DraftKings at -140, and his best for a goal is on Sports Interaction at +135.
- As mentioned above, Carter Verhaeghe has been in a rut, and I like him to bring his best effort to shake out of it tonight. His best value on a goal is on Sports Interaction at +195, and his best value on clearing his shot line of 2.5 is on Caesars at -158.
- If you’re looking for a home run, the guy who draws into the lineup for the big moment is always a fun one. Nick Cousins would be that player for Florida – his anytime goal prop is set at a whopping +1000 on FanDuel. It’s far from a safe bet, but if the hockey gods are setting a script for tonight, that would be the play. It wouldn’t be unprecedented either – Cousins scored the Florida overtime winner that eliminated the Toronto Maple Leafs in last year’s second round.
