On Saturday, the Florida Panthers got off to a stingy start to the 2024 Stanley Cup Finals, keeping the Edmonton Oilers off the scoresheet and defending the first half of their home-ice advantage. That first win only puts them a quarter of the way there, however, and the Oilers can be expected to come back with a counter-punch. Will it be enough to tie the series? Let’s dive in.
Bet on Panthers vs. Oilers GM 2
The moneyline favourites are the Panthers, coming in between -134 and -150 on the top Canadian Sportsbooks.
Panthers vs. Oilers Best Odds
| Panthers Moneyline Odds | -134 @ Pinnacle |
| Oilers Moneyline Odds | +121 @ Pinnacle |
| Puckline odds | Oilers +1.5 (-215) @ Bet99 Panthers -1.5 (+197) @ Pinnacle |
| Series odds | Oilers +205, Panthers -250 @ Bet365 |
| Total | Over 5.5 goals (-103) @ Pinnacle Under 5.5 goals (-106) @ Pinnacle |
| Time/Date | June 10, 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: CBC, Sportsnet, TVA Sports Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
Last Matchup
The Panthers controlled the scoresheet for almost all of Game 1. Carter Verhaeghe opened the scoring just four minutes into the first period with his 10th goal of the playoffs, capping off a Florida counter-attack with a tap-in at the net front. An individual effort by Sam Bennett at the start of the second gave them some insurance, as Bennett carried the puck into the offensive zone, won back his own dump-in, and feathered the puck over to Evan Rodrigues, who was left open in the slot. The Oilers pushed to get on the scoresheet throughout this one, but to no avail, and Eetu Luostarinen added an empty-netter with five seconds left.
Betting Florida Panthers (13-5 SU, 8-10 ATS, 7-11 o/u)
While the Panthers were able to capitalize on the few opportunities they had, the real hero in this game was Sergei Bobrovsky.
The true impact of “Playoff Bob” is an interesting debate, as recent history has led to an outsized reputation compared to his full career. Before his second-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs last year, there wasn’t much to phone home about — a 20-30 record across 56 appearances and a .900 save percentage to his name — fine numbers, but not the stuff of legends. You could say the same thing between last year’s Final and this year’s conference final – 16 games, a 9-7 record, and a .882 save percentage.
But he’s found a few winds of dominance, which go a long way in the playoffs. His 8-1, .954 stretch in rounds 2 and 3 of last year will likely be his lasting legacy if the Panthers don’t win this series. If they do, we’ll likely point to Saturday’s game as a major bookmark in his story, continuing another strong nine-game run that began in Game 5 of the Boston series. In that stretch, he’s posted a 6-3 record and a .936 save percentage, including two Game 1 shutouts.
“He’s just been unreal. His preparation is incredible. He’s everything that you want in a teammate and especially a goalie,” said Panthers star forward Matthew Tkachuk of Bobrovsky’s Game 1 performance. “He was there for us tonight.”
Betting Edmonton Oilers (12-7 SU, 7-12 ATS, 9-10 o/u)
On the flip side, solving Bobrovsky is the biggest concern for the Oilers going into Monday. After all, the Oilers controlled the lion’s share of the shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger changes in Game 1, and while a degree of that comes from them spending almost the entire game trailing, the result was never far enough out of reach for the Panthers to sit back on. Edmonton managed to draw three power plays after concerns of quiet whistles, and heavily controlled 5-on-5 play in the early goings.
One area of concern was where the Oilers were shooting. Not in the usual sense of where the players were taking the shots – Edmonton had 18 high-danger/slot attempts to Florida’s six – but where they were placing them on goal. Most of Edmonton’s attempts focused on beating Bobrovsky low, despite the pads being his strongest suit in this run. According to Kevin Woodley of NHL.com, of the 38 goals Bobrovsky has allowed, 22 of them have come up high, and just eight have come along the ice. Edmonton must look to get more lift off their releases tonight.
They’ll also consider both 5-on-5 goals coming with their second pair on the ice a point of concern, which leads us to…
Projected Panthers vs. Oilers Lines
| Today’s Florida Panthers Lines | Today’s Edmonton Oilers Lines |
|---|---|
| Forwards Carter Verhaeghe – Aleksander Barkov – Sam Reinhart Matthew Tkachuk – Sam Bennett – Evan Rodrigues Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Vladimir Tarasenko Steven Lorentz – Kevin Stenlund – Kyle Okposo Defence Gustav Forsling – Aaron Ekblad Niko Mikkola – Brandon Montour Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Dmitry Kulikov Starting In Goal Sergei Bobrovsky Playoffs: 13-3-2, 2.08 GAA, 0.915 SV% Season: 36-17-4, 2.37 GAA, 0.915 SV% | Forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman Dylan Holloway – Leon Draisaitl – Evander Kane Warren Foegele – Ryan McLeod – Corey Perry Mattias Janmark – Adam Henrique- Connor Brown Defence Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard Darnell Nurse – Vincent Desharnais Philip Broberg – Brett Kulak Starting In Goal Stuart Skinner Playoffs: 11-5-1, 2.47 GAA, 0.897 SV% Season: 36-16-5, 2.62 GAA, 0.905 SV% |
As it stands, both teams appear to be keeping their lineups pretty similar going into Game 2. The most notable (and as of this exact moment, only) change involves Cody Ceci coming out for Vincent Desharnais on the Edmonton blueline. Don’t be surprised if some lines get shuffled, though, with Edmonton needing to unlock a couple of goals and Florida seeking more control of the puck.
Connor McDavid over 1.5 points
Panthers vs. Oilers Injury Concerns
From a health perspective, both lineups appear to remain the same as they were on Saturday — that is, “healthy enough.” No one is too hurt not to play, and few are presumably at 100%.
NHL Betting Trends
- The two teams have split their last 10 games against each other, dating back to January 2019. Since 2022, the gap is 4-3 in favour of the Panthers. Florida has a 7-3 edge against the puckline across the last 10 games and the total goals line has slightly leaned towards the over (5-4-1).
- Edmonton is 6-4 in their last 10 games, with a 4-6 record against the puckline. The total goals line has been met with two overs, seven unders, and a push in that span.
- Florida is 7-3 in their last 10 games, with a 2-8 record against the puckline. They’ve had just one over and nine unders across those 10 games.
NHL Player Prop Trends
- Connor McDavid leads the way for the Edmonton Oilers over their last 10 games, scoring 13 points through three goals and a team-co-leading 10 helpers. Evan Bouchard also has 10 assists.
- Zach Hyman has been the primary shooter for the Oilers throughout the last couple of weeks, leading the team with five goals and 40 shots on goal in their last 10 games.
- For Florida, Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett co-lead the team with eight points in their last 10. Verhaeghe has four goals and four assists, while Sam Bennett leads the team with five goals, adding three helpers. Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov share the team lead in assists with five, while Tkachuk has the outright lead in shots on goal with 36.
Panthers vs. Oilers Predictions
- I’ve had very little luck in these playoffs with the total goals line, so I wouldn’t blame you if you faded me here, but with Bobrovsky red-hot, Stuart Skinner holding his own, and both teams crushing unders over the past few weeks, it’s hard to go against a repeat tonight (best value on Pinnacle, -106 under 5.5 total goals).
- Connor McDavid has points in every game following a zero-point effort in these playoffs. In fact, he hasn’t gone two games in a row without factoring in since November, with 31 points in his last 12 “response games”. It’s hard not to expect a similar result here. The best value on an over 1.5-point game is on Sports Interaction at -110, but if you want to go super cautious, Betway will let you take the over 0.5-point over at a pretty hilarious -450.
- The Panthers’ 18 shots on goal in Game 1 was their lowest total taken since March 24th, and not something I’d expect to continue. Stuart Skinner’s saves line is at 26.5 (-125 @ bet365). Even if you want to bake in the potential for him to have a rougher game, Florida took 34+ shots in their last four games before Game 1, and have taken 25+ in their previous 37 games.
