The pressure is on in Toronto, and the Maple Leafs are running out of track to calm down the nerves of their city. After suffering their fifth loss in their last six games on Saturday, the blue and white must lick their wounds and head into Seattle to find a better fate against the Kraken.
Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Kraken
TOR -115
SEA -105
The Maple Leafs are slight road favourites at -115.
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken odds
| Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds | -115 |
| Kraken Moneyline Odds | -105 |
| Puck Line odds | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+200), Kraken +1.5 (-245) |
| Total Goals line | 6.0 goals (over -120, under +100) |
| Time/Date | Jan 21, 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet Ontario Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
All odds courtesy of 
About the Maple Leafs (22-14-8 SU, 13-31-1 ATS, 24-19-1 o/u)
Toronto’s loss on Hockey Day in Canada might get a more favourable interpretation in better circumstances, but in the moment, it’s gasoline on the fire. The Leafs fell behind early in this one and for a bit, it felt like a big blowout was inevitable. Nils Hoglander put a pair past Martin Jones in the first six minutes, and Conor Garland added a third Canucks goal before the period came to a close.
Like we’ve seen a few times this year, though, the Leafs’ top players found a burst to get them back into the game. At around the five-minute mark of the second period, William Nylander got the Leafs on the board, and within three and a half minutes of that, the game was tied, from both a second Nylander tally and a rare goal from Jake McCabe. Outside of those first few minutes, Toronto carried control of the play in this one, outshooting Vancouver 46-21. Alas, after one more exchange of goals across both teams, the Canucks ultimately pulled away with two powerplay goals in the third.
Again, if it weren’t for the slump, Toronto doubling a first-overall team on shots and showing some chippiness along the way would be taken as a small victory, and the six goals against would be annoying in a single-game view, but shruggable in a longer one. But when you’re on a losing streak and your defensive details are in question, it will only make the pressure cooker a little more intense.
About the Kraken (19-17-9 SU, 24-21 ATS, 19-23-3 o/u)
Last year’s rendition of the Kraken felt like they were getting a little bit of help from unexpected finishing results, and the expectation going in was that they were going to have some trouble repeating their 46-28-8 record this year. Sure enough, that’s been the case, but what’s weird is how they’ve progressed through the year. Seattle has only had one win streak longer than two games this year, a nine-game run attached to a thirteen-game point streak (11-0-2), that’s really holding their season together heading into the All-Star break.
Presently, the Kraken are back to slumping, now winless in three after losses to the Penguins (3-0), Rangers (5-2), and Oilers (4-2) this week. So the precedent has been set for them losing to better teams, but that might not matter to a struggling Leafs team who has a rest disadvantage here, as they’re coming in on a road back-to-back and Seattle hasn’t played since Thursday. It’s worth noting as well that those three losses came on the road, and that Seattle hasn’t lost at home since December 16th.
Toronto will be hoping to take advantage of the fact that this is a low-scoring group. While they’ve been pretty sound defensively, their 126 goals for rank 27th in the league. Jared McCann leads the team with 18 tallies, and Oliver Bjorkstrand and Eeli Tolvanen are the only two others in double digits.
Last Matchup
For this one, we go back to simpler times, where the Leafs were getting points pretty much every night, and we could pretend that all was going swimmingly if we just suspended some disbelief. This particular game was a good one for the blue and white, best known as “The Fishbowl Night” for Mitch Marner. Wearing a full shield while nursing an injury, Marner exploded for a hat trick and a shootout goal, buoying the Buds past their tentacled opponents.
Projected Lineups
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Seattle Kraken |
|---|---|
| Forwards Pontus Holmberg – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner Tyler Bertuzzi – John Tavares – William Nylander Matthew Knies – Max Domi – Calle Jarnkrok Noah Gregor – David Kampf – Bobby McMann Defence Morgan Rielly – TJ Brodie Mark Giordano – Timothy Liljegren Simon Benoit – Jake McCabe Starting In Goal Ilya Samsonov 5-3-6, 3.88 GAA, 0.863 SV% | Forwards Tomas Tatar – Jared McCann – Jordan Eberle Jaden Schwartz – Alex Wennberg – Brandon Tanev Eeli Tolvanen – Tye Kartye – Oliver Bjorkstrand Andrew Burakovsky – John Hayden – Kailer Yamamoto Defence Ryker Evans – Adam Larsson Jamie Oleksiak – Will Borgen Brian Dumoulin – Justin Schultz Starting In Goal Joey Daccord 13-7-8, 2.34 GAA, 0.922 SV% |
There are no confirmed changes for the Leafs lineup just yet, though I wouldn’t rule out some tweaking given the loss and the lack of rest likely being taxing on a few of the heavier-minute guys. In goal, it’s another chance for Ilya Samsonov to build back upward. While it wasn’t a statistically dominant night in his return game against the Red Wings last Sunday, he did look more confident than we’ve seen him in a bit. This could be a great opportunity to gain some momentum if he gets support in front of him.
Jared McCann (SEA) over 0.5 points
+100
Key Injuries
The Leafs have nothing new on their injury front, as they mostly wait for Joseph Woll to return from his December high-ankle sprain. He’s now in week seven of his recovery.
The Kraken are a battered bunch at the moment. Pierre-Edouard Bellemare is out with a leg injury suffered before Christmas. Phillip Grubauer is still recovering from a lower-body injury suffered in December. Matty Beniers was placed on IR earlier in the week, Vince Dunn is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury and would be the team’s biggest loss he’s unable to go tonight, and Yanni Gourde is serving a suspension for a hit against Edmonton.
Betting Trends
- The Leafs are 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the puck line in their history against Seattle, who they’ve faced less than any active team.
- Seattle are 7-3 straight up in their last ten and 6-4 against the puck line, though they’ve gone 0-3 in their last three in both regards.
- Despite the slump a streak just prior leaves Toronto are 5-5 in their last ten, and 3-7 against the puck line. It gets a lot worse when you look at their last five, where they’re 1-4 straight-up, and 0-5 against the puck line.
Player Prop Trends
- Thanks to his eight assists, Oliver Bjorkstrand leads the Kraken in points over the last ten games. he also leads the team in shots on goal with 26, but only one found the back of the net over that stretch.
- Once a Leaf for several hours, Jared McCann leads Seattle with four goals in that same period. Alex Wennberg is the only other player with at least three.
- On Toronto’s end, the entire Core Four has over 30 shots in their last 10 games, with William Nylander leading the way on 45 shots on goal. He also has the most points on the team over the last ten games, with 13.
Wagers To Consider
- As a nod to those who filled in for me this week while I got some time away, I really liked Julian Miller’s suggestion to take advantage of Mitch Marner’s point props while he’s still on a 0.5 line. He might not get there every night, but he does more often than not, and at the moment it looks like the stars will have no choice but to be the ones who drag the team out of this streak. You can get a point from him at -250.
- William Nylander hasn’t cleared his 3.5 shots on goal prop in his last two games but has averaged nearly 4.5 per game over his last 18 appearances. With a similar feeling of the top guys needing to be the ones that elevate, I’d consider him at -140.
- Jared McCann is both Seattle’s top producer and the obvious Leafs-spite pick. You can find him at +100 for a point, -115 to clear 2.5 shots, and +165 for an anytime goal. I like the point the most of the three.
- I think you have to give good consideration to Seattle on the moneyline here. The rest gap is just too big and questions remain about Toronto’s ability to keep pucks out of the net right now. Toronto are the better team and in a more neutral environment I’d take them more often than not, but there’s just enough here to give pause.
