Montreal hasn’t sniffed the playoffs in the three years since their Cinderella run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2021, failing to accumulate more than 76 points in a single season. However, despite making only one significant roster change, many project the Canadiens to be a tougher team to play against in 2024-25.
According to the betting market, making the playoffs remains an ambitious goal. Sportsbooks like bet365 and Sports Interaction aren’t forecasting much improvement, listing Montreal at 76.5 or 77.5 regular season points, respectively, with their playoff odds reflecting just a one-in-ten chance.
| Canadiens Futures | Sports Interaction | bet365 |
|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Points | Total: 77.5 Over: -120 Under: -105 | Total: 76.5 Over: -130 Under: +100 |
| Playoffs | Yes: +600 No: -1000 | Yes: +550 No: -900 |
| Atlantic Division | +10000 | +7500 |
| Eastern Conference | +10000 | +4500 |
| Win Stanley Cup | +15000 | +8000 |
Last Season
Expectations were low for Montreal heading into the 2023-24 season, with sportsbooks projecting just 71.5 regular season points. Despite ranking third in man games lost to injury or illness, Montreal still surpassed their projected point total, ending the season with 76 points. The Canadiens started off reasonably well, going 20-21-8 and staying within 10 points of a wild card spot by the end of January. However, injuries took their toll, and the team faltered with a 10-15-8 record down the stretch and finished last in the Atlantic Division.
Offence
Montreal ranks 28th in the offence since the start of the 2021-22 season, with only one team faring worse on the power play during that span. The Canadiens have converted just 15.8 percent of their opportunities with the man advantage. However, there are signs of improvement. Last season, they produced their first 30-goal scorer since 2017-18, and that number could rise to three or even four players this season.
| Player | Regular Season Goals | Over | Under | Sportsbook |
| Nick Suzuki | 31.5 | -115 | -105 | bet365 |
| Cole Caufield | 31.5 | -115 | -105 | bet365 |
| Patrik Laine | 29.5 | +100 | -130 | bet365 |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 24.5 | -115 | -105 | bet365 |
Nick Suzuki scored 33 goals last season, and the consensus around Cole Caufield is that he’ll eventually reach that milestone as well. Caufield netted 28 goals in 81 games last season, but it was seen as a step back after scoring 26 goals in just 48 games the year before.
Meanwhile, newly acquired Patrik Laine hasn’t hit the 30-goal mark since 2018-19, but there’s plenty of reason to believe he can still be a prolific scorer. Laine, a three-time 30-goal scorer who once tallied 44 in a season, has publicly set a goal of reaching 40, or even 50, this year. However, sportsbooks like bet365 have set his goal total at 29.5, reflecting his more recent scoring trends. While staying healthy could push Laine toward 40 goals, 30 seems more realistic, given he hasn’t played a full 82-game season since 2018-19.
Juraj Slafkovsky could also take another step forward after breaking out with 20 goals and 50 points in 82 games last season. Additionally, Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach, both returning from significant injuries, have the potential to become key contributors after missing 27 and 80 games, respectively, last season.
| Player | Regular Season Points | Over | Under | Sportsbook |
| Nick Suzuki | 78.5 | -115 | -105 | Sports Interaction |
| Cole Caufield | 68.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
| Patrik Laine | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 57.5 | -110 | -110 | Bet99 |
| Lane Hutson | 38.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
There’s less to like in the team’s bottom nine, but there are players in that group capable of scoring 15 to 20 goals, such as Brendan Gallagher, Joel Armia, and Josh Anderson. Additionally, we can expect offensive contributions from the blue line, with veteran Mike Matheson and rookie Lane Hutson likely to play a significant role in facilitating offence for head coach Martin St. Louis.
With a bit of imagination, it’s easy to envision scenarios where Montreal adds 30-plus goals to their total from last season, but they would still grade out as an average team offensively, and they have a long way to go on defense.
Defense
Montreal has ranked 32nd, 31st, and 30th in expected goals against per 60 minutes over the past three seasons, according to Evolving Hockey. Consequently, only one team has performed worse in terms of preventing goals and killing penalties over that period. It hasn’t been uncommon to see Montreal give up 40-plus shots in a game, which has been about a one-in-five occurrence over the past three seasons.
The Canadiens blueline is young, though, and that means there’s upside. There seems to be little doubt about whether Hutson is ready or not, and Kaiden Guhle looked solid last season, playing in 70 games. There’s also Logan Mailloux, Justin Barron, and Arber Xhekaj to provide even more upside. Matheson isn’t going to improve defensively but will continue to put out offensively. David Savard is sort of the same thing, only to a lesser degree.
It’s doubtful that the Canadiens will make huge strides defensively, but they did lead the league with 27 losses in one-goal games last season. If they continue to get above-average goaltending, maybe they’ll outscore their problems.
Goaltending
Things could have been far worse for the Canadiens over the last two seasons if not for their goaltenders, especially Sam Montembeault. After a tough first season in Montreal, Montembeault has saved more than 30 goals above what an average goaltender would have, according to Evolving Hockey. His strong play, along with solid performances from Cayden Primeau, gave the organization enough confidence to trade veteran goaltender Jake Allen.
Sam Montembeault over 19.5 wins
While Montembeault hasn’t started more than 40 games in a season yet, he’s almost certain to surpass that milestone in 2024-25. The increased workload could pose a challenge, but over his last 79 starts, he’s shown the potential to be a reliable No. 1 goaltender. Fans should be cautiously optimistic that he and Primeau will form a dependable tandem. Goaltenders are unpredictable, but Montreal seems well-positioned at the position for the foreseeable future.
Prediction
Don’t expect Montreal to improve its place in the standings enough to return to the playoffs, because you’ll be disappointed about 90 percent of the time. That said, oddsmakers have set expectations too low for the Canadiens. Montreal is a great bet to exceed its regular season point total our forecast has the team finishing with 82 points on average. According to our model, there’s a 60 percent chance that the Canadiens will finish with 80 points or more in 2024-25.
