The National Hockey League is nearing a return for its 2024/25 season, with training camps and preseason games just a couple of weeks away. As such, much of the mainstream media is starting to return to talk puck, and a lot of conversation in Toronto has been made about the top of the Jack Adams Trophy race:
| Coach | bet365 | NorthStar |
|---|---|---|
| Sheldon Keefe (NJ) | +650 | +650 |
| Andrew Brunette (NSH) | +800 | +800 |
| Craig Berube (TOR) | +900 | +1000 |
| Travis Green (OTT) | +1000 | +1300 |
| Kris Knoblauch (EDM) | +1000 | +1000 |
| Martin St. Louis (MTL) | +3000 | +3000 |
| Scott Arniel (WPG) | +3300 | +3500 |
| Ryan Huska (CGY) | +5000 | +5000 |
| Rick Tocchet (VAN) | +5000 | +2000 |
Sheldon Keefe is at the top of the list? The same Sheldon Keefe that the Maple Leafs just fired a few months ago, the same one who has historically rarely gotten more than one or two votes as a finalist, let alone for first place? And why are there so many recently re-hired coaches at the top of the list of an award that presumably goes to the best coach in hockey?
Well, that’s because the award, which is voted on by members of the NHL Broadcast Association, is only loosely about being the best coach in the league. In fact, it’s one of the easiest subjective awards to pick contenders for at the start of the year. Rather than an intense look at who is the best tactician or communicator, the award tends to be a year-to-year improvement award with several patterns, and the most important individuals involved not being behind the bench – in fact, they’re rarely on the bench at all.
How To Identify A Jack Adams Favourite
To start, let’s take a quick look at the list of winners of the past 10 years:
| Year | Coach | Team | PTS | SH% | SV% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Rick Tocchet | Vancouver | 109 (6th) | 10.6 (1st) | 0.922 (6th) | 102.8 (1st) |
| 2023 | Jim Montgomery | Boston | 135 (1st) | 9.7 (2nd) | 0.939 (1st) | 103.6 (1st) |
| 2022 | Darryl Sutter | Calgary | 111 (6th) | 8.5 (11th) | 0.925 (4th) | 101.1 (7th) |
| 2021 | Rod Brind’Amour | Carolina | 80 (3rd) | 7.4 (27th) | 0.936 (2nd) | 100.9 (10th) |
| 2020 | Bruce Cassidy | Boston | 100 (1st) | 8.3 (15th) | 0.934 (1st) | 101.7 (3rd) |
| 2019 | Barry Trotz | NY Islanders | 103 (5th) | 8.6 (9th) | 0.937 (1st) | 102.2 (1st) |
| 2018 | Gerard Gallant | Vegas | 109 (5th) | 8.4 (6th) | 0.921 (20th) | 100.5 (10th) |
| 2017 | John Tortorella | Columbus | 108 (4th) | 8.2 (10th) | 0.933 (2nd) | 101.4 (4th) |
| 2016 | Barry Trotz | Washington | 120 (1st) | 8.3 (3rd) | 0.929 (11th) | 101.2 (4th) |
| 2015 | Bob Hartley | Calgary | 97 (16th) | 8.9 (2nd) | 0.922 (18th) | 101.1 (5th) |
It’s a pretty good class of names, but noticing some patterns here doesn’t take long.
- Winning Matters (to an extent): To get deep into the conversations, you must bring your team into the mix. It’s rare that coaches outside of the playoff picture even get into the conversation. A great example is John Tortorella last year. The Philadelphia Flyers overachieved all season, with Torts being the face of the team in the media’s eyes, deflecting as much attention away as possible as they tried to go from a projected last-place team to a playoff spot. For a while, he was among the favourites to win the award. After the team stalled out in the final weeks, he fell to 12th place in voting with no first-place votes, despite the team clearing their projected points line by a dozen.
- Improvement Matters Too: Once you secure yourself as a playoff team, a big jump makes a big difference. Of the last 10 winners, the average increase in standings position from their previous year was a whopping dozen spots (Vegas excluded). The exception to this rule was Bruce Cassidy in 2020, whose Bruins jumped just two spots, but generally, the jump is significant, usually from mid-pack or out of the playoffs to a competitive spot.
- Playing the Percentages: When you tear apart how they got there, you’d think there would be a key tactical statistic for us to look at that would show the winners’ strength. Say, a jump in expected goal or shot attempt share or a gap between the two that shows the team is significantly better at home (implying leverage of last change and other bench advantages). As it turns out, it’s mostly just finishing and puck-stopping improving over the year prior. Every Jack Adams winner since 2014 has had their team finish top 10 in 5-on-5 PDO (Shooting Percentage + Save Percentage), with top 5 being exceedingly common and the last two winners’ teams finishing first. In a lot of ways, it’s less about being dominant and more about being hot.
- “You Show Me A Good Goalie, I’ll Show You A Good Coach”: Most specifically, goaltending seems to be a major influencer here. Rick Tocchet’s Vancouver Canucks were the lowest-ranked team in 5-on-5 save percentage among Jack Adams winners since 2018, and they ranked a lowly sixth in the NHL, with Thatcher Demko finishing second in Vezina Trophy voting. An elite goaltender makes a massive difference here. Since fans and media tend to associate tight, low-scoring wins with tactics and strategy more than they do big, high-scoring ones, the brick wall is more important than the sniper rifle. Though, in the case of the last two winners, they’ve had both.
- Narratives Help: A little storyline never hurt anyone, and this is one reason we see many relatively new coaches to their teams place high. Let’s say a talented team goes through an extended cold stretch, fires their old coach, and brings in a new one. Then the bounces go the other way with little strategic change, and they see a big leap in wins. One can then point to the new coach as the answer, even if being patient with the last one would’ve been just as effective.
- Love Is Temporary: Because of the volatility that creates winners and finalists, getting there doesn’t guarantee you success in the years to follow. For example, Darryl Sutter won the award in 2021/22, with Andrew Brunette of Florida and Gerard Gallant of the New York Rangers finishing as finalists. Within a calendar year, all three saw the pendulum swing the other way, and were fired by their teams.
Sheldon Keefe (NJ) to win 2024/25 Jack Adams Award
The Favourites Make Sense
With this in mind, the favourites to win the 2024/25 Jack Adams Award make a lot of sense.
In top favourite Keefe’s case, for example, while he’s been one of the winningest coaches in the league since being first called up in 2019, what really matters here is the Devils’ roster. The team massively underachieved expectations last season, going from a legitimate Stanley Cup contender to 25th overall. Was it because the overall roster was bad? It doesn’t seem like it. Was it because Lindy Ruff was incapable of earning them wins? Not if you ask the voters, as he finished second in Jack Adams voting the year before.
It may have had a little something to do, however, with their 28th-ranked 5-on-5 save percentage and the injury time missed by Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton, Nico Hischier, and Timo Meier. New Jersey expects those players to be healthier in 2024/25, and to solve the goaltending issue, the team acquired Jacob Markstrom from Calgary. In a sense, Keefe’s strong case is being made not by his coaching capabilities (which are legitimate) but rather by his goalie, his GM, and his doctors.
For Brunette, only Tocchet separated him from victory last year, as the Predators had a great year-over-year improvement. They’ve since gone and acquired Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei, which should help. The biggest reason Nashville still has room to grow, though? You guessed it, in goal. Elite netminder Jusse Saros had an uncharacteristically average year. His returning to form could add several wins to their stat line.
Craig Berube (TOR) to win 2024/25 Jack Adams Award
Craig Berube? He is likely to benefit from the media attention in Toronto if they have a year more in line with previous regular season success, but should Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz stay healthy and perform to their potential, he’ll benefit from the Leafs going from a 24th-ranked goaltending rotation to one that was among the league’s best by save percentage and underlying shot quality metrics.
A name outside of the favourites that could make some sense is Lindy Ruff at about +2200 – back with the Sabres where he first made himself famous, Buffalo has flirted with leaps upward a few times in recent years and seems to have a good thing going in goal with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, and Devon Levi waiting in the wings.
You get the idea. The top of the list is full of teams with recent changes because things went below expectations for them to force those changes, and many of those teams have either made moves to improve, expect more out of their goaltending this year, or both. Does it feel lazy to treat Coach of the Year as “Most Improved Team, With a Dash of Luck”? Yeah, a little. But it doesn’t make it any less true, and if you’re going to dive into the betting market here, you should plan accordingly.
