Could Macklin Celebrini be the next No. 1 pick to capture the Calder Trophy, or will another rookie make a breakout performance and steal the spotlight? We won’t know until the NHL awards are handed out next June, but we can use a process of elimination to narrow down the list of contenders to determine who makes the cut, from a betting perspective.
| Player | bet365 | Northstar |
|---|---|---|
| Matvei Michkov (PHI) | +400 | +350 |
| Macklin Celebrini (SJS) | +450 | +450 |
| Logan Stankoven (DAL) | +450 | +500 |
| Will Smith (SJS) | +550 | +650 |
| Cutter Gauthier (ANA) | +550 | +500 |
| Lane Hutson (MTL) | +800 | +750 |
| Dustin Wolf (CGY) | +1100 | +1150 |
| Rutger McGroardy (PIT) | +2000 | +3000 |
| Mavrik Bourque (DAL) | +3000 | +2500 |
| Yaroslav Askarov (SJS) | +4000 | +2500 |
Last year’s race saw Connor Bedard enter as the clear favourite, but if Celebrini wants to become the next No. 1 overall pick to win the award, he’ll need to outshine a talented group of contenders. This season’s rookie race promises to be more competitive, with names like Cutter Gauthier, Matvei Michkov, Logan Stankoven, and Will Smith in the mix.
Macklin Celebrini (San Jose Sharks)
Celebrini, who just turned 18 in June, was not only the youngest player in men’s college hockey this season but also the youngest to win the Hobey Baker Award, which goes to the top NCAA men’s hockey player. He scored 32 goals and 64 points in 38 games for the Terriers, ranking second and third in the NCAA, respectively.
As a result, oddsmakers have set Celebrini’s NHL totals at 25.5 goals and 52.5 points heading into the 2024-25 season. No other first-year player has a higher total for goals or points, but 53 points is obtainable, given that’s exactly how many points first-overall picks have averaged since 2004. Sharks’ head coach Ryan Warsofsky has already stated that the 18-year-old will be counted on to drive play for the team this season, which bodes well for his chances.
Teammate Will Smith, who was selected by the Sharks with the No. 4 pick in 2023, is also a player worth considering. In fact, Bet99 has Smith pegged for 18.5 goals and 44.5 points, which isn’t that far behind Celebrini. However, I’m just not sure about the value. The same goes for goaltender Yaroslav Askarov, the No. 11 pick from the 2020 draft, who San Jose recently acquired from the Nashville Predators.
Matvei Michkov (Philadelphia Flyers)
Matvei Michkov of the Philadelphia Flyers is the current favourite for the award—and it’s easy to see why. Michkov is the greatest pre-draft goal scorer in Russian hockey history, having dominated the MHL, Russia’s top junior league, for two seasons. He notched 56 points in 56 games in the U20 division, breaking the record previously held by Nikita Kucherov, and set a new record for the highest goals-per-game average in league history.
Matvei Michkov (PHI) to win 2024/25 Calder Trophy
More importantly, the 19-year-old has professional experience playing top-six minutes, having notched 41 points (19 goals, 22 assists) in 47 games last season in the KHL, which is arguably the toughest league in the world outside the NHL. However, Michkov’s regular-season totals at 23.5 goals and 47.5 points are slightly lower than those of Celebrini and on par with some of the other rookies in the class.
Logan Stankoven (Dallas Stars)
With 24 goals and 57 points in 47 AHL games, Logan Stankoven led the league in scoring and was well on his way to winning MVP when he was called up to the NHL by the Dallas Stars. He then scored six goals and 14 points in 24 games with the big club. Some fans might be surprised to learn that Stankoven is eligible for the Calder Trophy, but the cutoff is 25 regular-season games, so he just made the cut.
Stankoven played right wing, mainly on a line with Wyatt Johnston and Jamie Benn last season. He averaged almost 15 minutes of ice time per game but saw very little power-play time. However, with Joe Pavelski retiring, there’s now an opening on the top line. That’s why I was surprised to see him listed at 45.5 regular-season points, as that number doesn’t suggest much improvement for the 21-year-old considering his higher point-per-game pace last season.
His numbers dipped in the playoffs, where he scored three goals and five assists in 19 games, but the experience Stankoven gained should give him an edge over most of the field, which includes 2020 No. 30 pick Mavrik Bourque. Stankoven and Johnston are proof that Dallas is more than willing to give young players opportunities, and Bourque is flying under the radar as the next in line.
Cutter Gauthier (Anaheim Ducks)
Cutter Gauthier is another player that sportsbooks expect to be among the rookie scoring leaders, with his totals set at 22.5 goals and 44.5 points at Bet99. Gauthier joined the Anaheim Ducks following a trade from the Flyers in January and signed a three-year, entry-level deal in April after a stellar season at Boston College, where he racked up 65 points (38 goals, 27 assists) in 41 games and helped his team reach the 2024 NCAA championship game.
The 2022 No. 5 overall pick led the NCAA in game-winning goals (10) and was named a Hobey Baker Award finalist. He also starred at the 2024 World Juniors, helping the U.S. secure a gold medal. Gauthier has all the tools to win the award, but it’s unclear how big of a role he will play for the Ducks this season. Given Gauthier’s short odds, I’m not sure how he can distinguish himself enough to make it a worthwhile bet.
Lane Hutson (Montreal Canadiens)
With the recent departure of Jordan Harris, 2020 No. 62 pick Lane Hutson’s chances of earning a spot on the Montreal Canadiens blue line have increased significantly. The 20-year-old scored 15 goals and 49 points in 39 games during the 2023-24 season with Boston University. However, while Montreal isn’t going to hide the 5-foot-10, 160-pound defenceman, the Canadiens aren’t likely to put Hutson in a situation where he will be able to outshine others in his class.
Hutson could score 50 points, but general manager Kent Hughes has already stated that he will send him to the minors if need be. They aren’t going to keep him in the NHL just to turn him into a power-play merchant. In other words, this isn’t a Brock Faber situation. That was a perfect storm of events. Hutson’s Calder Trophy odds are inflated.
Lane Hutson (MTL) to win 2024/25 Calder Trophy
Duston Wolf (Calgary Flames)
The Calgary Flames are more likely to finish among the bottom five teams than make the playoffs this season, but rookie goaltender Dustin Wolf is still garnering a lot of attention from oddsmakers. Not only does Wolf have the seventh-best odds of being named the rookie of the year, but he’s also been pegged for 20.5 wins by the bet365 sportsbook.
Wolf is an intriguing prospect. He was named the best goalie in the American Hockey League in 2022 and 2023, as well as the AHL MVP in 2023, and he looked comfortable in the 17 games with the Flames last season, posting a 7-7-1 record with a 3.16 goals-against average and .893 save percentage. However, while he has always done well as an underdog, he’s not a dark horse.
A goaltender hasn’t won the award since Steven Mason in 2009. Wolf is just 6 feet tall, which means he’s considered undersized, and the Flames’ defence is nowhere near as good as it once was.
Rutger McGroarty (Pittsburgh Penguins)
After being acquired in a trade from the Winnipeg Jets, 2022 No. 14 pick Rutger McGroarty immediately signed a three-year, entry-level contract because the Penguins expect him to crack the lineup right away. Not only that, but he’ll likely get a chance to play alongside either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin.
The 20-year-old has the skills to contribute, having scored 34 goals and 91 points in 75 games for the University of Michigan. Prior to that, he registered 120 points in 107 games with the United States National Team Development Program and captained the United States when it won the World Junior Championship, scoring five goals and nine points in seven games.
Still, McGroarty’s offensive ceiling is likely quite a bit lower than some of the other players in the class, but opportunity is everything. His situation might be the best of any rookie, and his 30/1 odds at NorthStar make him an intriguing bet.
