Welcome back Super Bowl heads!
When I covered the various candidates and scenarios revolving around the Super Bowl MVP I highlighted the fact that although there’s a wealth of superstar talent within both the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers, the race for MVP is really a two, maybe three-horse race. But we don’t have to bet on the outcome of the MVP vote to take advantage of potential individual player performances, on the contrary, there’s a bounty of opportunity when turning to the Super Bowl’s favourite betting category: the prop bet.
We’ll cover some more unique prop categories a little closer to the big game, but for now, we’re going to break down great player props at bet365 to key in on when Super Bowl Sunday arrives. So without further ado, let’s dive in to some choice player props and make some bets!
Chiefs Props to Play
A surprise factor in Kansas City’s 2022-2023 offence, Isiah Pacheco has now built on that breakout to become a Chiefs’ mainstay this year. With a touchdown in each of KC’s three playoff games thus far, Pacheco is a good bet to find the end zone on the biggest stage. Two of three of his scores came in the latter part of the second half so bet to see him find pay dirt late in this championship tilt. As an added bonus bet for those with a higher appetite for risk, both those second-half scores were the last TD of those games. If you’re inclined, you’ll want to back Pacheco to score last.
- Player Longest Reception Milestone – 30 Yards – Rashee Rice – +215
Like Pacheco before him, Rashee Rice has been a hidden x-factor for the Chiefs this year. Much has been made of KC’s inability to find the same QB-receiver chemistry and production of the Tyreek Hill days, but Rice has done much to quiet that talk, particularly in the latter weeks of the season and into these playoffs. We all know that short-to-mid-yardage passes from Patrick Mahomes are the realm of Travis Kelce, which gives Rice the made for the Super Bowl deep threat role. Staking Rice to have a reception of at least 30 yards is a good bet heading into Championship Sunday.
- Player Reception Milestones – 8 Catches – Travis Kelce – +130
We can hardly write an article remotely related to the Super Bowl without mentioning Kelce. You could say that he’s built for games like this and it would truly be a cruel summer, should Kelce and the Chiefs fail in their repeat goal. Travis will be counted on heavily, so you won’t find a blank space on his receptions column when it’s all said and done. Last week, he finished the game with 11 catches on a 100% catch rate. He’s only caught all of his intended targets one other time this season, otherwise, his average sits in the 70-80% range. With that in mind, I think we can confidently back eight catches from the big man, and with a performance like that, he’ll be able to say “don’t blame me” if the Chiefs still lose.
- Player Defensive Interceptions – OVER 0.5 – L’Jarius Sneed – +600
Typically I shy away from defence props as the performances are harder to pin down. That being said, I feel like Kansas City’s pass defence is not only being overlooked in this game, but has perhaps been overlooked all season long. Without it, I don’t think the Chiefs find themselves in a position to repeat as NFL champions and why not take a little bit of time, and betting dollars to salute that corps. What gives me even more credence to back an interception from them is opposing QB Brock Purdy’s interception problems when facing these types of elite pass protections. As we’ll come back to in the San Fran section, I have the distinct feeling that Purdy will throw an INT in this game and L’Jarius Sneed is a reasonable candidate to come down with it. (If you’re not feeling Sneed, his fellow Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie also sits at +600).
Travis Kelce over 8 receptions
+130
49ers Props to Play
- Player Passing Completions – OVER 21.5 – Brock Purdy – +100
- Player Interceptions – OVER 0.5 – Brock Purdy – -110
We’ll start off here with the Jekyll-and-Hyde case of 49ers QB Brock Purdy. Purdy doesn’t have to be as good as Patrick Mahomes to win this game, as Christian McCaffrey papers over any need of an all-world quarterbacking performance. That being said, he does have to be good, as good as he can be for San Francisco to triumph. Purdy’s turnover rate may be the ultimate dividing line in this game and if you’ve read the KC section above, you’ll know I’m already predicting at least one INT from him in this Super Bowl. One interception is manageable, almost expected at this stage. If Purdy can limit his mistakes as much as possible, and provide the 49ers with completions in the 23-26 range, then we’ll have seen both him and San Francisco at their best. It’s hard to expect anything less in this championship clash.
- Player Rushing Yards Milestones – 100 Yards – Christian McCaffrey – +140
- Player Rushing and Receiving Yards Milestones – 150 Yards – Christian McCaffrey – +200
KC will be fed a steady diet of CMC in this game, at least if San Francisco wants any chance to win that is. As I’ve highlighted, the Chiefs pass defence is underrated and formidable, and limiting Brock Purdy’s passing turnovers is going to be paramount. McCaffrey had 90 yards rushing on 20 attempts in the NFC Championship win over the Lions, and that’s despite the Lions dominating the first half of play. He’s a good bet to eclipse the 100-yard mark on the ground and what’s more, he also has a good chance to surpass 150 total yards as he’s typically reliable to land between 30-40 receiving yards per game.
- Player Rushing and Receiving Yards Milestones – 100 Yards – Deebo Samuel – +230
What makes this bet interesting, and quite frankly makes or breaks it, is Samuel’s involvement in the backfield. Much was made of his return from knee injury agains the Lions and the question marks surrounding whether he’d be active at all in the running game. In the end Deebo was able to produce three carries for a total of seven yards in what is a pretty typical running workload for him. With an extra week off before the Super Bowl, Samuel will be able to rest and recuperate to come at this game 100%. The Super Bowl caters to at least one or two gadget plays, and Deebo will be a prime candidate for a double-reverse or some such trick play that sees him break off some chunk running yards. If we see his typical three-four touches and normal pass catching workload next Sunday, it’s a good bet to see him surpass 100 total yards.
- Player Tackles and Assists Milestones – 5 Tackles and Assists – Nick Bosa – +270
Finally it’s only fair that we feature another defensive player and in the case of Nick Bosa, the most prominent one in the game. As difficult as it is to sack Patrick Mahomes, Bosa will present one of the toughest pass rush threats he’s faced all year. Bosa will be all-out in this one and is bound to produce a big play or two. Though ultimately they may not be sacks, I see Bosa surpassing his average of 3.1 combined tackles and assists and putting his unique stamp on the game.
Brock Purdy over 0.5 interceptions
-110
