With just four weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, there’s no shortage of data to consider when evaluating player props. Week 15 is loaded with intriguing matchups, and there’s value on the board as it pertains to player props.
Let’s take a look at three player props to play for Week 15:
Brock Purdy over 242.5 passing yards
Best odds: -115 @ NorthStar Bets
It’s do-or-die time for the San Francisco 49ers who, with a 6-7 record, have just a 9% chance of making the playoffs heading into this week, according to NFL.com. That means this team will be desperate to put points up on the board and come away with a home victory on Thursday night in order to keep its slim playoff hopes alive.
Purdy completed 20 of his 25 pass attempts for 325 yards last week against the lowly Chicago Bears, and he should put up big numbers again this week against the Rams’ relatively weak pass defence, which is coughing up an average of 225.1 yards per game, the ninth-worst mark in the league.
The 49ers are decimated by injuries at the running back position, which should put more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air. Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason are on injured reserve, and third-stringer Isaac Guerendo is dealing with a foot strain and has a questionable designation.
Purdy has beaten this line in seven of his 12 games (58% of the time), averaging 252.7 passing yards per game this season. At -115 odds (53.5% implied odds), we’re getting good value on backing him in this spot, given the game context and the absence of a viable running game at San Francisco’s disposal.
And with such an emphasis on the passing game, Purdy will surely see some pressure from the Rams defence on Thursday night, so it might be worth also backing him to throw an interception at +110 odds (bet365).
Brock Purdy to throw an interception
De’Von Achane anytime TD
Best odds: +114 @ PointsBet
Achane has found the end zone in four straight games and in eight of 13 (62%) this season. Those metrics already make him a good bet at +114 odds (46.7% implied odds), and as one of the NFL’s best pass-catching running backs, he can find paydirt a number of different ways on a week-by-week basis.
The Miami Dolphins, with a 6-7 record, have just an 11% probability of qualifying for the playoffs out of the AFC, and they have a very difficult matchup this week in Houston against the Texans. Houston will be fresh coming off a bye week, and the Texans have been very good at keeping opposing running backs out of the end zone this season, limiting them to 0.46 rushing touchdowns and 0.15 receiving touchdowns per game.
This is a tough matchup for Achane, but given the must-win nature of this game and his prominent role in the Dolphins offence, look for him to break through and find the end zone for the fifth straight game.
Rico Dowdle over 81.5 rushing yards
Best odds: -120 @ PROLINE +
Dowdle is flourishing as the lead back in Dallas, running for more than 100 yards in back-to-back games for the Cowboys. He even set a career high with 131 rushing yards last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per carry.
This week, Dowdle will be licking his lips in anticipation of his matchup against the Carolina Panthers’ atrocious run defence, which is allowing a league-worst 170.1 yards per game on the ground to the opposition. Carolina allowed 124 yards on the ground to Saquon Barkley and 209 total rushing yards last week to the Philadelphia Eagles. The week prior to that, Tampa Bay’s Bucky Irving erupted for 152 rushing yards on the Panthers.
The Cowboys have run the ball 45.2% of the time on offence over their last three games, which is much higher than their 35.5% overall average this season.
