Jake’s Takes: Your Guide To Super Bowl LVIII Odds, Betting Mismatches, Props & Trends

Welcome NFL fans to Super Bowl week! And with it, the final Jake’s Takes of the season.

After a long, strange trip through the NFL regular season and the subsequent playoff rounds, we’ve finally arrived at the end goal of every aspiring football team: the Super Bowl. Through ups and downs the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs have battled their way to the promised land, which this year has taken the form of Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. Speaking of Vegas, us football bettors have also battled ups and downs. Like the Chiefs, underdogs in every round since the wild card, including the impending championship game, we’ve beaten the odds and found ourselves here at the end of it all.

It’s been a couple weeks now since the conference championship games, so I won’t waste much time recapping them as everything that can be said of them surely has. What I will say is that I apologize for personally watching those games as it seems my viewing of them might have spelled doom for our picks. I watched the entirety of the Baltimore vs. Kansas City game, doomed from the start, the NFL gods recognizing the error of my ways and punishing me with a performance from Baltimore that was both out of character and downright sloppy. Pondering my gaffe, I refrained from watching the first half of the Detroit vs. San Francisco tilt, and without my accursed eyes watching the screen, the Lions took the game by a stranglehold. Thinking I was safe enough to come back, sit down and enjoy the second half in relative safety, the fates punished my hubris, erased a 17-point Detroit lead in minutes and laid bare my terrible mistake. I may have to get drastic this week, and watch the Super Bowl through a series of mirrors. Perhaps indirectly perceiving the images unfolding will undo the curse. Or maybe I should just not believe in jinxes at all.

It’ll be a difficult decision for me as the yearly Super Bowl tradition is something that can’t be missed for NFL fans, sports fans, and fans of spectacle alike. So I’ll put aside talk of curses and jinxes for the time being, get to dissecting this game, make a pick, and settle on enjoying the event guilt-free. Let’s hope for my sake, I don’t doom us all.

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Favourite	M-Line	Spread	Total	Underdog	Day/Time (ET)
	-130	-2	O/U 47.5		Sunday / 6:30 PM

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Super Bowl LVIII Pick

• Kansas City Chiefs – Moneyline – +110

As I mentioned above, the Chiefs have been underdogs in each of their playoff games since the wild card. To add to that general underestimation on the part of oddsmakers, I myself have picked against them in favour of both the Bills and the Ravens. Twice now the Chiefs have made me regret my decision and after much thought, I am aiming to right those wrongs. There are factors here at play that helped steer my decisions. Factors that encompass on-field play and real football statistics and others still that feel a bit more ethereal. To start off, I want to perhaps deviate from the obvious here and refrain from talking about the quarterbacks for a little while. Don’t worry we’ll get to them, but for now, I want to talk about a core component of the Chiefs whose hype has finally caught up to them, granting them a level of respect that was elusive during the regular season. If you haven’t already guessed, I’m talking about the KC defence. A squad that combined for the second-most sacks league-wide this year, as well as allowing the fourth-fewest pass yards. They are a fast, agile, and downright annoying bunch, especially when trying to oppose them. The lion’s share of attention leading up to this game will be focused on Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and maybe a little on Usher, but really we should all be giving flowers (not Zay) to this d-corps that’s gotten the Chiefs to Vegas.

I’m not trying to downplay Mahomes’ stature here. He’s a mountain among mole hills and is undoubtedly the best QB playing right now, but let’s be honest, we all know that. Reams of virtual paper have been dotted with gallons of virtual ink in painting Patrick in the most glowing of terms. We know he’s great and that San Francisco will have the unenviable task of slowing him down. Which leads us to our next factor in picking the Chiefs, lead being the operative word, as the man leading the Niners into battle, at least strategically, has a pretty crummy track record at this point of the season. The man of the hour, Kyle Shanahan, doesn’t think upon Super Bowls past very fondly. His first trip, Super Bowl 51 with the Falcons, ended in spectacular fashion, after blowing a 28-3 lead to the Patriots. His second, a loss to these very Chiefs in Super Bowl 54, saw his 49ers blow a measly, by comparison, 10-point lead. Now Shanahan preps for his third trip to the Super Bowl, but if he hopes for the third time to be the charm, history is working against him. Shanahan faces off against rival coach Andy Reid in what is only the fourth coaching rematch in Super Bowl history. The loser of the first game has never won the second. If Shanahan devises effective ways to move the ball against the Chiefs’ defence, the 49ers will find themselves in a good spot. But for that good spot to turn into a win, they also have to contain Mahomes, a task that is undoubtedly easier said than done. In both of their playoff games this year, the 49ers’ defence was notably absent in the first half. Should this pattern repeat, a San Francisco-style comeback may be a Golden Gate Bridge too far.

Another factor currently plaguing the 49ers defence in these playoffs is their inability to stop the run. The 49ers only surrendered over 130 yards rushing four times this year and two of those times have come in the postseason. If the Chiefs get their rushing attack going, it’s hard to imagine them losing. Including the playoffs, the Chiefs are 15-2 over the past two seasons in any game where they rush for at least 100 yards and Mahomes throws for at least 200 yards and I feel like we’re going to see both of those numbers get hit. Particularly considering the recent run of play from RB Isiah Pacheco, who I’ve highlighted in the player props section below.

So it all comes down to this: one final showdown. A dynasty-maker of a game, which will see the Chiefs reach rarefied air if they pull it off. It has all the feel of Super Bowl 54 in which KC showed these same 49ers what it means to be champions. I don’t think swapping Miami for Vegas this time makes much of a difference. Head coach Andy Reid is ready, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is ready, and Patrick Mahomes is ready. If for some reason I was a Chiefs fan flying from Japan to Vegas to see this game, I would do so with a smile. If for some reason the television broadcast cut to me smiling ear to ear once in my seats, I wouldn’t mind a bit. And if, after relishing in the Chiefs’ win someone got down on one knee and proposed to me in front of the worldwide Super Bowl audience, what the heck, I’d have had myself a pretty dang good Sunday.

Happy Super Bowl all, we’ll see ya next year.

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Super Bowl LVIII Betting Trends

Here are a few trends to keep in mind when placing your bets this week:

• The Kansas City Chiefs have won eight of their last 10 games straight-up as underdogs 🔥
• TheSan Francisco 49ershave hit the over in six of their last 10 games 🔥
• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the over in only one of their last five games 🧊
• TheSan Francisco 49ershave only hit the team total over in five of their last 14 games 🧊

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Super Bowl Player Props to Play

Here are three props I love for the Super Bowl:

• 2nd Half Touchdown Scorer – Isiah Pacheco – +220
• Touchdown Scorers – LAST – Isiah Pacheco – +550

A surprise factor in Kansas City’s 2022-2023 offence, Isiah Pacheco has now built on that breakout to become a Chiefs mainstay this year. With a touchdown in each of KC’s three playoff games thus far, Pacheco is a good bet to find the end zone on the biggest stage. Two of three of his scores came in the latter part of the second half so bet to see him find pay dirt late in this championship tilt. As an added bonus bet for those with a higher appetite for risk, both those second-half scores were the last TDs of those games. If you’re inclined, you’ll want to back Pacheco to score last.

• Player Reception Milestones – 8 Catches – Travis Kelce – +140

We can hardly write an article remotely related to the Super Bowl without mentioning Kelce. You could say that he’s built for games like this and it would truly be a cruel summer, should Kelce and the Chiefs fail in their repeat goal. Travis will be counted on heavily, so you won’t find a blank space on his receptions column when it’s all said and done. Last week, he finished the game with 11 catches on a 100% catch rate. He’s only caught all of his intended targets one other time this season, otherwise, his average sits in the 70-80% range. With that in mind, I think we can confidently back eight catches from the big man, and with a performance like that, he’ll be able to say “don’t blame me” if the Chiefs still lose.

• Player Rushing and Receiving Yards Milestones – 100 Yards – Deebo Samuel – +200

What makes this bet interesting, and quite frankly makes or breaks it, is Samuel’s involvement in the backfield. Much was made of his return from knee injury against the Lions and the question marks surrounding whether he’d be active at all in the running game. In the end Deebo was able to produce three carries for a total of seven yards in what is a pretty typical running workload for him. With an extra week off before the Super Bowl, Samuel will be able to rest and recuperate to come at this game 100%. The Super Bowl caters to at least one or two gadget plays, and Deebo will be a prime candidate for a double-reverse or some other variation of a trick play that sees him break off some chunk running yards. If we see his typical three-four touches and normal pass catching workload next Sunday, it’s a good bet to see him surpass 100 total yards.

Looking for more big game props? These three were hand-picked from my Super Bowl Prop Picks article. Check it out for more betting inspiration for this Sunday!

⭐ Gold Star Pick ⭐ SUPER BOWL EDITION

A Super Bowl-sized parlay for our Super Bowl-sized Gold Star pick features a Chiefs win along with a few of my choice player props for this week.

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