Jake’s Takes: Your Guide To NFL Week 15 Odds, Betting Mismatches, Props & Trends

Welcome NFL fans to Week 15!

I’ve run out of ways to describe the ongoing QB-pocalypse that is the 2023 football season so I’m just going to illustrate the fact by highlighting some of the amazing quarterback matchups we have to look forward to in Week 15:

• Jake Browning vs. Nick Mullens
• Gardner Minshew vs. Mitch Trubisky
• Easton Stick (somehow not a hockey pun) vs. Aidan O’Connell
• Will Levis vs. Davis Mills

No one would blame you for not knowing a few of those names above, or for thinking some of them are made up (looking at you Easton), but they are all too real and underscore the drastic change in many teams’ fortunes since the season began. The face of the league tends to be its quarterbacks, and though it’s tough to diminish the luster of the NFL juggernaut, it’s hard to believe it hasn’t been diminished for a number of fan bases. That being said, sometimes injuries present new opportunities for previously unknown stars to emerge, if only for a brief span of a few weeks.

Week 15 will also feature a New Jersey born Giants’ QB named Tommy DeVito, who has a cartoon mob boss for an agent and a 38-year- old Joe Flacco who’s gone from the living room couch to dragging the Browns back to relevance. It really has been a wild and wacky 2023 NFL season, and any team who’s still intact at the QB position has a distinct advantage as the playoffs quickly approach.

So with our Week 15 well established, let’s get to the numbers and make some picks!

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Favourite	M-Line	Spread	Total	Underdog	Day/Time (ET)
Las Vegas Raiders	-165	-3	O/U 34.5	Los Angeles Chargers	Thursday / 8:15 PM
Cincinnati Bengals	-165	-1.5	O/U 42	Minnesota Vikings	Saturday / 1:00 PM
Indianapolis Colts	-125	-1.5	O/U 42	Pittsburgh Steelers	Saturday / 4:30 PM
Detroit Lions	-220	-4	O/U 47.5	Denver Broncos	Saturday / 8:15 PM
Atlanta Falcons	-165	-3	O/U 34	Carolina Panthers*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Cleveland Browns	-170	-3	O/U 38.5	Chicago Bears	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Tennessee Titans	-150	-2.5	O/U 37.5	Houston Texans	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Kansas City Chiefs	-425	-8.5	O/U 37	New England Patriots*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
New Orleans Saints	-270	-6	O/U 39	New York Giants	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Miami Dolphins	-425	-8.5	O/U 37	New York Jets	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Green Bay Packers	-170	-3	O/U 41.5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Sunday / 1:00 PM
San Francisco 49ers	-900	-12.5	O/U 48	Arizona Cardinals*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Los Angeles Rams	-300	-6.5	O/U 50	Washington Commanders	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Buffalo Bills	-135	-2	O/U 50.5	Dallas Cowboys	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Baltimore Ravens	-180	-3.5	O/U 42.5	Jacksonville Jaguars*	Sunday / 8:20 PM
Philadelphia Eagles	-205	-4	O/U 47.5	Seattle Seahawks*	Monday / 8:15 PM

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Week 15 lines to bet NOW

• Los Angeles Chargers – Moneyline: +140

Canadian football fans have a reason to back Easton Stick tonight, and not only for having a name that invokes our national pastime. Two weeks ago, when the Chargers defeated the Patriots 6-0, I thought surely that would be the most boring, inept game of the year. Little did I know that one short week later, the Raiders losing 3-0 to the Vikings would blow that game out of the water. The Raiders have now lost three in a row under interim coach Antonio Pierce and the offence can’t get anything going with QB Aidan O’Connell. In relief of Justin Herbert last week, Stick completed 13 of 24 passes for 179 yards against a legitimately good defence in the Broncos. Easton and the Chargers wont have to deal with any bad weather Thursday, only the very bad Raiders. The line is understandably reacting to the loss of Justin Herbert, but there’s plenty of reason to believe that L.A. has at least one more win in it this year.

• Denver Broncos – Moneyline: +180

The Lions and Broncos are two teams headed in opposite directions right now, at least for the time being. Detroit is getting the benefit of the doubt this week due to its record but things have not been trending well in Motor City. Since Week 7, the Lions are surrendering 28.3 points per game and own a -8 turnover margin, both of which rank bottom-two in the NFL over that span. When it comes to the turnovers, one of the biggest issues for the Lions is QB Jared Goff, who has turned the ball over 12 times since Week 7. His stellar play over the first half of the season has drastically soured. Meanwhile, the Broncos have gone 6-1 of their last seven and their defence has been one of the best in the NFL. They have a +11 turnover margin over the past eight weeks and they’re only surrendering 15.6 points per game, and both those numbers are top-two in the NFL. I’m not here to say that the Lions are finished, they have the weapons to be a real threat should they get back to the best version of themselves, but at the current moment, the offence is not doing enough to make up for the bad defensive play.

• New York Giants – Spread: +6

The magical run of current Giants QB Tommy DeVito has been fun to watch and has re-energized a dead in the water season for Big Blue. Italian American jokes aside, DeVito has injected some life and levity into the sad sack Giants and there’s reason to believe the positive vibes will last another week. Particularly, it’s the play of Saquon Barkley that puts DeVito and New York in a position to succeed. Barkley rushed 20 times for 86 yards and two scores against the Packers and the New Orleans defence is only slightly better than Green Bay at stopping the run.

Week 15 lines to bet LATER

• Buffalo Bills – Moneyline: -135

Alright Bills, I’m back in your corner, for now. If you watched the Buffalo vs. KC game all the way through you’ll know that some unseen force was pulling the strings for the Bills all day long. Mistakes were mitigated by mistakes on the Chiefs side, improbable plays were somehow made probable by penalties and non-calls. Viewers would have been excused for thinking that Buffalo would ultimately Buffalo it up and lose that game, but somehow the Bills didn’t. Now the Bills get to return home on a positive note and prepare for possibly their toughest test yet. Had they lost against the Chiefs, it might have been curtains for them, but Buffalo now owns a measure of momentum with which to propel it to save the season. I bet against the Cowboys (their opponents) last week and was made to regret it, but this game takes place at Orchard Park which gives the Bills the edge. Why is this a bet later you might ask? Well I think the Cowboys’ impressive run of games will push this line towards them as the game approaches and we can find even more value in backing Buffalo.

Week 15 line that makes me go hmm…

• New York Jets– Spread: +8.5
• New York Jets– Moneyline: +325

There’s reason to believe in the Jets this week, and there’s even room for belief in their (albeit minuscule) playoff chances. Beyond the fact that Aaron Rodgers’ return looms large (he’s expected to be medically cleared to play ahead of the Jets’ Christmas Eve game against the Commanders), the play of QB Zach Wilson in Week 14 is encouraging on its own. Now I’ll be the first to say that Wilson stringing two good games together is not the likeliest thing, but my belief in the Jets this week has more to do with their opponents than anything. The Dolphins blew a 14-point lead en route to a loss to the Titans last week and did it on home turf to boot. More importantly, star wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle both left the game (before returning) with injuries. Hill’s ankle injury is particularly troubling and he could be rested ahead of the Dolphins’ Week 16 clash against the Cowboys. If Hill does play, both he and Waddle will be at less than 100% and that doesn’t bode well for the Dolphins or QB Tua Tagovailoa who doesn’t have the talent to carry things on his own. All three of them together, fully healthy, are a formidable force, but it’s a totally different story when Tua has to do more heavy lifting.

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Betting trends of the week

Here are a few trends to keep in mind when placing your bets this week:

• The Cincinnati Bengalshave hit the moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games 🔥
• The Minnesota Vikingshave only hit the team total over in seven of their last 21 games 🧊
• The Pittsburgh Steelershave hit the moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games 🔥
• The Indianapolis Coltshave scored last in four of their last 17 games 🧊
• The Detroit Lionshave hit the moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games 🔥
• The New York Jetshave only hit the game total over in seven of their last 21 games 🧊

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Player props to play in Week 15

Here’s a few player props I love this week:

• Player Passing Yard Milestones – 250 Yards – Joe Flacco: +155

Yup, you’re reading that right, it’s time to back the Elite of Elites: Joe Flacco. Flacco has thrown 254 and 311 yards in respective games since emerging as the Browns starter. He gets a favourable matchup this week against a Chicago defence giving up an average of 230 yards per game to opposing QBs.

• Player Receptions Milestones – 7 Receptions – Travis Kelce: +135

Kelce is averaging 6.7 receptions this season and considering it’ll likely be a cold one in Foxborough, he’ll be depended on heavily for short outlet passes. KC will be looking to right the ship in a big way and the Patriots are a perfect get right opponent.

• Player Interceptions – Over 0.5 – Jared Goff: +265

Goff, who earlier in the year was regularly featured in this article in more glowing terms, now makes an appearance for less than stellar reasons. He’s turned the ball over 12 times over the Lions’ last seven games and hasn’t been sharp with his passing. Denver is creating turnovers at an elite rate and is definitely not the team anyone struggling with interceptions wants to face.

⭐ Gold Star Pick ⭐

This week, we’re gonna return to spread betting in a nod to last year’s articles. Combining the Bills, Broncos, and Jets in a tidy little three-leg play.

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