It’s a NEW DAY in the NFL! Yes, it is! And, oh boy, don’t the sportsbooks ever need one.
In Week 6, we reported on the public’s eye-catching success. In Week 7, the train kept on rolling for those bettors. The only games the public lost were the New York Jets and the Los Angeles Chargers. Honestly speaking, there wasn’t much money spent on these games compared to the Sunday early and late afternoon slate.
That being said, some people have been asking us how sharp bettors (and the bookies) react to back-to-back tough weeks. The short answer is they keep on doing what they’ve always done. In this case, it’s sticking to their system.
As we said at the start of the season, there will be ups and downs throughout the year. The wise guys, like us, had a very solid start to the year. Every game with a book need felt like the bookies got the exact result they wanted. That’s reflected in our results for the first few weeks in this column.
Now, things have slowed down, but we encourage you to stay the trip. Maintain your responsible bankroll management habits, avoid forcing bets, don’t overreact to bad weeks, and trust your system/process.
Some people might argue that it’s stubborn not to adapt. Still, speaking from experience, unless you have quantifiable data (over a large sample size) to suggest that your approach isn’t working anymore, you stick to the system and let the dominos fall where they fall.
Of course, that can mean enduring some hard times, but sometimes you’ll have to sleep in the alley eating pork and beans before you can start wining and dining with kings and queens. That’s just the way she goes.
Nevertheless, keep your heads up. Plenty of weeks remain left, and if you’ve been following our picks from the start of the season, you’re still profitable after seven weeks. #TrustTheSystem
| Date | Time (ET) | Teams | Spread (bet365) |
| Oct 24 | 8:15 PM | Vikings @ Rams | Vikings -3 |
| Oct 27 | 1:00 PM | Cardinals @ Dolphins | Dolphins -3 |
| Oct 27 | 1:00 PM | Packers @ Jaguars | Packers -4.5 |
| Oct 27 | 1:00 PM | Falcons @ Buccaneers | Buccaneers -2.5 |
| Oct 27 | 1:00 PM | Eagles @ Bengals | Bengals -2.5 |
| Oct 27 | 1:00 PM | Jets @ Patriots | Jets -7 |
| Oct 27 | 1:00 PM | Bears @ Commanders | Bears -1.5 |
| Oct 27 | 4:05 PM | Saints @ Chargers | Chargers -7.5 |
| Oct 27 | 4:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs -9.5 |
| Oct 27 | 4:25 PM | Panthers @ Broncos | Broncos -9 |
| Oct 27 | 8:20 PM | 49ers @ Cowboys | 49ers -5 |
| Oct 28 | 8:15 PM | Giants @ Steelers | Steelers -6.5 |
The Only Week 8 Storyline That Matters
We Were Wrong To Doubt Coach Tomlin
Okay, maybe the Pittsburgh Steelers starting Russell Wilson was the right move. Maybe we utilized McCarthyism to critique Coach Tomlin’s ballsy move. We won’t lie; we still think Fields should be the starter going forward. We believe that to be true because Fields is more mobile. As he begins to work more with Steelers’ offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, Smith starts to feel more comfortable running plays that let Fields air out the ball. Fields can have similar results as Wilson had in Week 7 against the New York Jets.
That said, the Wilson-Pickens connection does remind us of the heralded Roethlisberger-Ward connection from back in the day. As much as the media likes to paint Pickens as a “diva,” the guy did have a right to be upset about not getting the ball. However, it didn’t give him the right to slack off and run sloppy routes like he consistently did in the Steelers game against the Dallas Cowboys a few weeks ago.
Does Starting Wilson Bring The Steelers Closer To Being A ‘True’ Super Bowl Contender?
As you already know, we’re not huge fans of overreacting. Wilson did throw for 264 yards and two touchdown passes, which was good enough for a 109 passer rating. Of course, this is something for the Yinzers to marvel at since the Jets’ defence has been half-decent throughout the season. Nevertheless, it’s just one game.
If Wilson can string together three contests in which he does that and helps clear the way for the running game to open up, Wilson will 100% bring the Steelers closer to being true Super Bowl contenders.
However, Mr. Let’s Ride is limited with his weapons. No offence to Calvin Austin III and Van Jefferson, but those aren’t great receivers to air out the ball to when Pickens can’t get open. Tight end Pat Freiermuth isn’t bad as a second option to Pickens, but he’s not the Heath Miller type of offensive juggernaut some expected him to be.
The Steelers need a solid WR1 or WR1b that can take some more of the coverages, so Pickens isn’t always getting doubled every snap.
Is Cooper Kupp Worth The Price Of Admission?
We’ve heard that the Steelers are the -125 betting favourites to land Cooper Kupp from the Los Angeles Rams.
Does the move make sense? The Steelers should pursue any receiver who could slot in as a WR1.
Some, including Pittsburgh’s front office, are concerned about the asking price for Kupp, though. The word on the street is that the Rams want a second-round pick. That’s a pretty high cost for a constantly injured receiver. The risk/reward equation doesn’t add up there.
If the Steelers don’t get Kupp, the remaining available receivers—even Mike Williams—will leave much to be desired. So, Pittsburgh’s front office has to ascertain how much it wants to contend.
Do we think a peak Steelers team could beat a team like the Kansas City Chiefs or Buffalo Bills in the playoffs? The jury is out on that one, but getting to that spot will be hard with the Steelers’ current makeup on the offensive side of the ball.
Lines To BET NOW
After Weeks 6 and 7, in which the public dominated, we wanted to zone in on three games instead of spreading our action. That means there will be no “Lines To Watch” and “Lines To Avoid.” We will play the games that’ll be the most significant liabilities on Sunday, knowing these will likely yield positive results. May the odds forever be in our favour (and yours, too, if you tail):
- Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-110 @ BetVictor): Okay, betting against the Eagles in this spot feels like one hell of a bad decision, especially when the public has been eating on games like these. Realistically, it’s easy to imagine the Eagles dominating and/or the Bengals choking when it matters the most. However, many of our sharp sources have been hammering Cincy’s spread. They feel this is a game where the Bengals overwhelm the Eagles’ secondary. Plus, this game may become a book need, and eventually, one will hit.
- Seattle Seahawks +3.5 (-125 @ Betway): We really like this matchup for the Seahawks. Of course, when the Bills are revving, Buffalo can destroy Seattle. That said, a good argument can be made that the Seahawks can exploit Buffalo’s secondary. Seattle’s defence is good enough not to let Josh Allen take over the game. The sharps have also taken a keen interest in backing Seattle. That’s as long as the line stays around +3.5 or +3. We’ll bite on this one.
- Carolina Panthers +10.5 (-109 @ BetRivers): Another terrifying play, but hands down, this is one of the biggest book needs going into the weekend. From what it looks like, Bryce Young will be behind the gun on Sunday for Carolina. Can we vouch for the Panthers playing a good game? No. What we can vouch for is that the sharps are heavily backing Carolina. This is another one of those spots where you have to plug your nose and #TrustTheSystem. Remember, we don’t suggest these plays on a whim. We recommend them because they’ve been quantifiably profitable for us over a large sample size.
TWO MINUTE DRILL: A Player Prop We Like
- Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) OVER 16.5 passing completions (-115 @ bet365): This prop on Jackson has been popping up a lot in talks with CSB’s sharp sources. Even the Action Network Pro’s prop projector has this line at 20, giving us a 24.4% edge. We could see Baltimore airing the ball out some more in this game. Let’s roll the dice and see what happens.
