Holmesy’s Fighting Words: Your Guide To Understanding NFL Week 7 Odds, Betting Market Psychology, and Undervalued Props

Christian Holmes
Written by: Christian Holmes

Although many people wager on the NFL for the hell of it, many, like ourselves, take this thing “seriously.” We read between the lines. We bet with quantifiable information, not with our hearts. We use adjectives like “wise” and “sharp” to describe our betting styles. We take pride in profiting on the NFL long term, even if we take short-term losses.

Nevertheless, we’re quick to point fingers when everything goes against us. Hell, we’ll even come up with the most bogus conspiracy theories to cope with a losing week. That’s what many of the wannabe “wise guys” did after Week 6.

For those who aren’t in the know, Week 6 will probably go down as the public’s most profitable run of the season. According to many industry sources, including BetMGM’s John Ewing, everything went right for ‘em pesty porkers in the public. They won all the highest concentrated games and even managed a push on the Commanders’ +7 spread.   

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That led many to speculate that the betting info these guys from the sportsbooks were putting out on platforms like X was and still is BS. It’s all some big psyop to get losers like us to bet a certain way. 

But is it really? 

Separating Fact From Fiction

Here’s the deal: Regulated books, especially ones operating in Canada’s biggest market, Ontario, can’t BS you with their betting splits. They would lose their licenses so fast. Therefore, all the information you see from BetMGM’s John Ewing is 100% legit, at least from the action the operator is taking.

Now, when it comes to unregulated offshore books, sometimes the info can be a little suspicious. However, with the regulated books picking up so much steam and saturating the market, it only makes sense for the offshores to be just as transparent with their data to steal back some of the regulated market’s share by creating trust with potential customers.

The next question is: Why do some books have big discrepancies in their betting splits compared to the competition? 

Answer: Context is very much key.

Each book has its share of the market. Obviously, some will be bigger than others. And, of course, certain books appeal to demographics that bet a specific way. For example, you’re much more likely to see tons of money on the Buffalo Bills at Canadian regional operators, such as NorthStar Bets or Sports Interaction, than opposed to global operators like bet365 and Betway. After all, those regional books will incentivize their customers to wager on the Bills by offering unique betting markets (think same-game parlays with boosted odds). 

On the other hand, global books appeal to a broader audience that spans many continents, which is why they don’t have to do that unless they want to build their customer base in a particular regional market like Ontario. Therein, their betting splits will look a hell of a lot different. 

It’s so easy to fall down that rabbit hole of the “books are out to get you.” Realistically speaking, the house has the edge forever and always, so playing games on a week-to-week basis to egg a half percent of profit is useless for them.

Does it pay to have access to betting market information that gives you a look at the bigger picture? Yes, because it’s easier to contextualize the information you’re receiving and wager accordingly. That’s why big-time bettors pay big bucks for services that give them a look at the “bigger picture.”

This isn’t to say the smaller picture isn’t helpful because the information isn’t transparent. It just lacks contextualization. If you’re looking at it like it’s the big picture, and when you find out it’s not, your next natural thought is to feel duped. 

That being said, if we’re really going to point fingers here, the ones actually pulling the strings of the psyop aren’t the books but those who claim to want to protect you against their treachery: The “sports betting influencers.” The ‘cappers who charge for picks. The blokes who’ll give out Bills -2.5 to 50% of their clientele and Jets +2.5 to the other half.

Unfortunately, since you have read this far and swallowed the bitter red pill, the cold, hard truth is that you only have yourself to blame if you fall for it. 

DateTime (ET)TeamsSpread (bet365)
Oct 178:15 PMBroncos @ SaintsSaints -1.5
Oct 209:30 AMPatriots @ JaguarsJaguars -5.5
Oct 201:00 PMSeahawks @ FalconsFalcons -3
Oct 201:00 PMTitans @ BillsBills -9
Oct 201:00 PMBengals @ BrownsBengals -6.5
Oct 201:00 PMTexans @ PackersPackers -2.5
Oct 201:00 PMDolphins @ ColtsColts -3.5
Oct 201:00 PMLions @ VikingsVikings -2.5
Oct 201:00 PMEagles @ GiantsEagles -3
Oct 204:05 PMRaiders @ RamsRams -6.5
Oct 204:05 PMPanthers @ CommandersCommanders -7.5
Oct 204:25 PMChiefs @ 49ers49ers -1.5
Oct 204:25 PMJets @ SteelersJets -1.5
Oct 218:15 PMRavens @ BuccaneersRavens -3.5
Oct 219:00 PMChargers @ CardinalsChargers -3
*Odds subject to change

The Only Week 7 Storyline That Matters

DOWN WITH COACH TOMLIN

We’ve been covering Justin Fields’ career resurgence as the starting quarterback of the Pittsburgh Steelers for most of the season. Each game, he’s gotten better, and as many have pointed out, he’s six points away from being 5-1 at the helm of the NFL’s most storied franchises.

Has Fields been the greatest QB for Pittsburgh? Arguably, he could be better. Fields even said it himself. That said, there’s a lot of room for him to grow into a great all-around quarterback. Not to mention, from the small sample size Fields has given us, he’s been a top-10 quarterback in the NFL. Hell, he’s even outplaying this generation’s GOAT, Patrick Mahomes.

Now, some of y’all might be wondering what the big deal is with Mr. Let’s Ride getting some first-team reps. Usually, the player who gets the first team reps is the guy who gets to start. 

Coach Tomlin, we’ve been prominent defenders of your brand in the past, but bruh, we don’t know WTF you’re doing here.

No one who means something in the football community agrees with your decision to bench Fields and start Wilson, especially when you’re in a dogfight with the Ravens for first place in the AFC North.

There’s no rationale that Coach Tomlin could give Steeler fans that makes any sense for this move. Guys like Tomlin are supposed to be invokers of The American Dream: The idea that you can become something out of nothing. They’re not supposed to play favourites and advance ineptitude fools based on “merit.” That way of thinking is a relic from a bygone era, or so some might say.

Quite frankly, if Wilson starts against the New York Jets in Week 7, Tomlin will have fallen on the wrong side of The Steel Curtain, and we can’t help but view this as a blatant act of treason—a betrayal to everything that epitomizes being a Pittsburgh Steeler.

Lines To BET NOW

After Week 6, one in which the public dominated, we wanted to zone in on three games instead of spreading our action out. That means there will be no “Lines To Watch” and “Lines To Avoid.” We will play the games that’ll be the biggest liabilities on Sunday, knowing these will be the games most likely to yield us positive results. May the odds forever be in our favour (and yours, too, if you tail):

  • Minnesota Vikings -119 ML @ Pinnacle: The public couldn’t be happier. They got the best stuff from the “Ace Connect” in town, and like an addict chasing that next hit of bliss, they’ll be coming back for more. That being said, the Lions might not be the team to re-up on. In fact, several sizeable sharp betting syndicates have told CSB that they’ll be backing the Vikings heavily. They have the Vikings projected closer to -3 favourites and are willing to play Minny up to -2.5. Something tells us that come Sunday, you won’t be able to get a moneyline price lower than -130 on the Vikings, so grab it while the going is good.
  • San Francisco 49ers -117 ML @ Betano: Many twerpy bettors are saying, “There’s no way the Chiefs lose to the 49ers. Chiefs +100 ML is FREE MONEY.” Aye, fam, we don’t know about that one. In what will be one of the most bet games of the week, the books aren’t going to serve up a terrible line for the newbs to attack, especially after the newbs took the books to town last week. The line itself is deceptive, and these two teams are much more evenly matched than some might think. We’re not going to blow smoke up your arse by saying the 49ers are a lock to win because if San Fran does, it will be a scrappy victory. Nevertheless, sharp bettors have already backed San Fran heavily, and we expect that to continue until game time. Much like our Vikings ML pick, grab it while the going is good.
  • Green Bay Packers -2.5 (-117 @ BetVictor): The Packers as -3 point favourites at home against Houston, a team that has played much better than Green Bay this year, seems kind of questionable. As such, the public has rushed to back the Texans. While the majority of money is hitting Houston, we’re seeing some sharp money hitting Green Bay, causing reverse-line movement at several global and regional books. It’s actually hard to find the Packers at -2.5, priced lower than -120, and we doubt -2.5 will be around come Sunday. Of course, it’s one of those bets where you just have to plug your nose and hope for the best. Nevertheless, the fact that the books are moving this spread up makes us think that the traders are trying to get more sucker money on the Texans to counteract what the wise guys are putting on the Packers. 

TWO MINUTE DRILL: Player Props We Like

  • Brock Bowers (Las Vegas Raiders) UNDER 59.5 receiving yards (+100 @ BetMGM): Bowers has been on a heater lately, becoming one of the most reliable targets on the Raiders. That said, the Action Network Pro’s prop projection is setting this line closer to 47, giving us about a 19% edge. The Rams’ secondary ain’t what it used to be, but Bowers will see some tough matchups throughout the game. We’ll roll the dice on this one. 
  • Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers) OVER 20.5 passing completions (-110 @ bet365): Realistically speaking, the Packers will have to pass the ball to have any shot in this game. We don’t think Green Bay’s rushing attack will be enough. That naturally requires Love to throw the ball more, which opens up his chances to get more completions. It won’t be an easy task, but the Action Network Pro’s prop projector says we’re getting close to a 13% edge, so let’s test fate and see where it takes us.