If there was ever such a thing as disrupting the NFL touting industry, your boys from CSB should be the movement’s leaders. Four. We repeat: FOUR winning weeks. That’s right, folks, if you played our picks from the start of the season all the way to the present, you’d be up some money. How much? Let’s do the math.
In Week 1, our picks went 4-2. If our average bet price is -110, and we pay the juice on each unit, our profit would be 1.8 units.
Okay, in Week 2, we went 4-2 again, which nets us 1.8 units. Remember, these aren’t the exact prices we got on each bet; we’re averaging things to make the math stuff easier.
Week 3 arrived, and we thought there would be some regression. Nope. We went 5-1, which netted us with 3.9 units.
We got the same 5-1 result in Week 4. Do you know what that means? We have another 3.9 units in our accounts.
So far, we have made roughly 11.4 units. Lately, our system has been on fire.
Have we gotten lucky along the way? Yes, we indeed have, but as the famous stoic philosopher Seneca once said, “Luck is where opportunity meets preparation.”
Self-Awareness Is The Key to Success
That being said, we’re due for a bad week, and if you haven’t looked at the Week 5 schedule, there are a lot of “toss-up games.” We’ll have to manage our expectations.
By managing our expectations, we won’t be betting heavier, nor will we expect another winning week. Instead, we’ll stick to the same unit size we’ve used all season. No matter what happens, we’ll accept our results and move on to the next week with our heads held high.
We know some of this week’s picks won’t be for the faint of heart. That said, we recommend not betting on the game instead of fading the picks. As we’ve noted in previous weeks, it’s not the brightest idea to pick and choose games based on what your system likes. If the system has been profitable over a large sample size, it’s better to follow it through the highs and the lows. By that, we mean playing all the games the system suggests. The harsh reality of betting is you never know when your system will have a bad week (or a good one). That’s where the #TrustTheSystem slogan comes from. Nevertheless, if it’s been known to yield positive results over a long period of time, it makes all the sense to play it week in and week out.
Okay, we’ve had our chat. Now, let’s get to our Week 5 picks. Before that, we’ll quickly gloss over some interesting storylines heading into the NFL’s fifth week.
| Date | Time (ET) | Teams | Spread (bet365) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | 8:15 PM | Buccaneers @ Falcons | Falcons -1.5 |
| Oct 6 | 9:30 AM | Jets vs Vikings (London) | Vikings -2.5 |
| Oct 6 | 1:00 PM | Panthers @ Bears | Bears -4 |
| Oct 6 | 1:00 PM | Ravens @ Bengals | Ravens -2.5 |
| Oct 6 | 1:00 PM | Bills @ Texans | Bills -1 |
| Oct 6 | 1:00 PM | Colts @ Jaguars | Jaguars -3 |
| Oct 6 | 1:00 PM | Dolphins @ Patriots | Patriots -1 |
| Oct 6 | 1:00 PM | Browns @ Commanders | Commanders -3.5 |
| Oct 6 | 4:05 PM | Raiders @ Broncos | Broncos -3 |
| Oct 6 | 4:05 PM | Cardinals @ 49ers | 49ers -7.5 |
| Oct 6 | 4:25 PM | Packers @ Rams | Packers -3.5 |
| Oct 6 | 4:25 PM | Giants @ Seahawks | Seahawks -6 |
| Oct 6 | 8:20 PM | Cowboys @ Steelers | Steelers -2.5 |
| Oct 7 | 8:15 PM | Saints @ Chiefs | Chiefs -5.5 |
Week 5 Storylines To Watch
Davante Adams Wants Out Of The ‘Sin City’
🚨 🚨 🚨 #Raiders star WR Davante Adams informed the team that he preferred to be traded, per me and @MikeGarafolo.
There is nothing imminent, but a situation to watch for sure. pic.twitter.com/AAs5nxwqxl
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 1, 2024
Everyone wants to go to Las Vegas until they wake up with one hell of a hangover and unsure of what in the good lord’s name happened to them the night before. By that point, going home seems like one heck of an appealing option. But what if you can’t go home? In Davante Adams’ case, that means asking for a trade. The betting odds have the New York Jets as the -149 favourite to land the superstar wideout, according to BetMGM‘s traders. That said, the +1100 odds on Adams to be traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers are appealing. Coach Tomlin has a way of winning players over. Give him an hour or two with Adams; we have a sneaky suspicion Steelers’ young stud of a quarterback Justin Fields will finally get his WR1. If that happens, the ‘Yinzers might be one step closer to lighting the NFL on fire.
Better to Fight And Fall Than To Live Without Hope
Where in the hell did this 4-0 start come from? Running back Aaron Jones became the new Adrian Peterson. SAM DARNOLD might’ve become one of the best quarterbacks in the league and the sweetheart of the media, many of whom said this would be his final season in the NFL.
Think about it: When rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy went down with his season-ending injury, people said the Vikings were done. Darnold wasn’t the answer in the quarterback position. Another high draft pick will be incoming.
Nah, fam, SAM DARNOLD HAS THAT DOG IN HIM!
The Darnold-Justin Jefferson connection has been mint. The Vikings’ schedule doesn’t look that bad going forward, and the team is in a prime position to win the NFC North.
The Memory Remains
One of the NFL’s biggest rivalries picks up where it left off when the Dallas Cowboys head to the ‘Burgh to battle with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football. Unlike meetings in the past few seasons, this game means a lot for both teams. A win for the Cowboys helps Dallas keep pace with the NFC East-leading Washington Commanders. Another triumph over Dallas gives the Steelers more breathing room in the AFC North as the schedule gets more challenging and teams like the Baltimore Ravens start picking up the pieces.
By all means, this should be a fun renewal of the rivalry. Not to mention, it’s a HUGE test for both teams, even if the Cowboys are banged up on defence. The Steelers love running the ball. The Cowboys’ defence isn’t the greatest at stopping the run. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott loves to air out the ball. The Steelers’ secondary had trouble shutting down the Colts passing game last week.
Get out the popcorn, we’re in for a good one.
Lines To BET NOW
- Pittsburgh Steelers -2 (-118 @ Pinnacle): Hands down, this game has been the topic of discussion for both casual bettors and wiseguys. Every betting show you watch on TV loves the Cowboys, especially at the opening +2.5 line. However, the sharp bettors, AKA the wiseguys, absolutely love the Steelers, especially if the public bettors push the spread down to -1.5. The narrative has been the Steelers have finally come back down to Earth. The ‘Yinzer Gang won’t be able to stop the Cowboys’ high-powered offence, blah, blah. Nevertheless, if that’s the case, why didn’t the Cowboys open as -2.5 favourites? Yeah, you can say that the Cowboys’ defence is banged up. That said, if Dallas is going to score 50 points like everyone says, does it really matter? This SNF showdown is shaping up to be a pro vs. joes betting affair, with the pros on the Steelers’ spread and moneyline. As such, it’s hard for us not to like the Steelers in this spot. #BlackNGoldTillWeAreDeadAndCold
- Miami Dolphins +1 (-108 @ Pinnacle): This is our “not for the faint of heart” pick that we alluded to earlier. Yes, we know the Dolphins have no quarterback. Yes, we know the Dolphins are banged up defensively. The easiest thing in the world would be to fade the team. Yet, our sharp sources are prepared to heavily back the Dolphins this week. Of course, it’s a risky play, but it makes SO MUCH SENSE. Every Peter, Joe, and Bob is on the Patriots. With all the love shown to New England, you would’ve thought that Tom Brady decided to come out of retirement to become the Pats starting QB. However, the Pats aren’t in a much better spot than the Dolphins. This game will be boring AF, but we can definitely see the Dolphins pulling out a W on the road.
Lines To WATCH
- Houston Texans +1 (-103 @ Pinnacle): Everyone loves the Buffalo Bills in this spot. Yet the bookies only made Buffalo short favourites. This line is hella fishy. We’ve heard a lot of talk amongst our sharp sources about backing the Texans. At this point, most of the sharps are undecided. That said, if they pull the trigger on the Texans, we will throw a unit on Houston. Texans sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud could wreak havoc on Buffalo’s secondary. It’s also a bonus that Texans running back Joe Mixon will MOST LIKELY (Mixon not practicing has us a wee bit scared) be coming back from injury.
- Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110 @ bet365) or ML (-140 @ bet365): Yeah, we know this game is being played across the pond on a neutral field. That said, a lot of people seem to like the New York Jets in this spot. However, we’re not sold. Nor are our sharp sources. One source told us that they think the Vikings should be able to cover the +2.5 spread. However, more sharps are leaning towards the Vikings’ moneyline since these European games are “super unpredictable and beyond frustrating to bet.” We’ll let you decide how much risk you want to take with this one.
Lines To Avoid
We know this will come off as lazy, but any line we haven’t mentioned is the line to avoid. Week 5 is full of “toss-up” games that’ll drain your bankroll if you can’t find edges that make it worth your time to wager on said games. Pair that with the sad reality that we’re due to have a losing week sometime soon, and you’ll understand why we’re being so selective.
TWO-MINUTE DRILL: Player Props We Like
- Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears) OVER 30.5 pass attempts (-118 @ BetVictor): If the Bears want to succeed against the Panthers, Chicago will have to throw the ball. As such, we anticipate that you’ll see a very pass-heavy Bears offence. The Action Network Pro Prop Projector agrees with us; it has this line closer to 33, giving us a 12% edge.
- Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints) OVER 54.5 rushing yards (-110 @ bet365): Opponents have had success running the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs throughout the season. To improve the passing game, Kamara must have a good night on the ground. The Action Network Pro Prop Projector agrees with us. The algorithm thinks Kamara could rush for 67 yards. As such, we’ll throw a unit at it.
