Another week of betting on the NFL yields positive returns for our picks. That’s three weeks in a row where we profited.
They don’t even handicap the games.
They can’t name five players off one team.
They don’t even enjoy watching football. They only bet on football to make money.
The haters doubted us, and our competitors laughed at our methodology. Yet, here we are, on top—at least for now.
If you’ve been following the competition’s advice in the Canadian marketplace, you’re probably having a rough go of it, which sucks. After all, our competitors bill themselves as “experts” who “know what they’re doing.” If they knew what they were doing, why do they keep handicapping games and blatantly ignoring what the betting markets are trying to tell them? It’s like watching a car crash in slow motion.
Ah, who are we to judge, though? Let us not get lost in the sin of pride.
Like the Pittsburgh Steelers, we oughta go out there and do our thing. Drown out the noise and focus on what makes us successful. If you #TrustTheSystem, you’ll know all that matters is being true to who you are and sticking with it through thick and thin.
It may not work forever, but it’s working now. And, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. However, we are due for a bad week, so this isn’t the time to double down either. A touch of self-awareness never hurt anyone.
Oh, that reminds us, we’ve got a surprise for you this week…
| Date | Teams | Point Spread |
|---|---|---|
| Sept 26 | Cowboys @ Giants | Cowboys -6 |
| Sept 29 | Falcons @ Saints | Falcons -2.5 |
| Sept 29 | Broncos @ Jets | Jets -7.5 |
| Sept 29 | Ravens @ Bills | Ravens -3.5 |
| Sept 29 | Steelers @ Colts | Steelers -1.5 |
| Sept 29 | Rams @ Bears | Bears -2.5 |
| Sept 29 | Bengals @ Panthers | Bengals -4 |
| Sept 29 | Vikings @ Packers | Packers -3 |
| Sept 29 | Jaguars @ Texans | Texans -6.5 |
| Sept 29 | Eagles @ Buccaneers | Eagles -2.5 |
| Sept 29 | Commanders @ Cardinals | Cardinals -3.5 |
| Sept 29 | Browns @ Raiders | Raiders -1.5 |
| Sept 29 | Patriots @ 49ers | 49ers -10.5 |
| Sept 29 | Chiefs @ Chargers | Chiefs -7.5 |
| Sept 30 | Titans @ Dolphins | Dolphins -1 |
| Sept 30 | Seahawks @ Lions | Lions -4 |
All odds in above table courtesy of bet365.
Let’s JUMP On The #HereWeGo Bandwagon
In the City of Pittsburgh, each and every one of its citizens knows the sentiment of hard work and dedication. Lifelong residents joke about how Pittsburgh’s blisteringly hot summers can test one’s will to survive. Andrew Jackson’s biographer, James Parton, likened Pittsburgh to be “Hell, but with the lid off”. The oldest of the city’s citizens will tell listeners that only the toughest of ’em will outlast the grind of the ‘Burgh. Lest, they will say, the men be separated from the boys.
With its lines of steel factories and the multitude of jobs there for the taking, the acclaimed City of Champions is said to be the ideal place for journeymen looking to call themselves one with the “blue-collar” working class. Such a notion would explain the city’s affinity with its Pittsburgh Steelers, a football team that has made many proud to say they are from Pittsburgh, even if they would be the first to catch a train out of town afterward.
In the days of yesteryear, The Steel Curtain ruled the NFL. The Steelers made Three Rivers Stadium a place to be dreaded by its foes. The team was led by Hall of Fame linebacker “Mean” Joe Greene and a colourful cast of characters who would win the Super Bowl four times and boast one of the best defences in the sport’s history. Many argue that the ’70s Steelers dynasty is football’s greatest, and to this day, the argument is still able to stand the test of time.
Maybe that’s why the ‘Yinzers have taken such a liking to the current iteration of their Pittsburgh Steelers. The team refuses to give in to what some media personalities like Colin Cowherd would tout as the “writing on the wall.” Instead, the team has inherited the spirit that made the 1970s Steelers dynasty such a force to be reckoned with.
The 2024 Steelers team embodies the “just get the job done” ‘Yinzer mindset.
Run the ball like there’s no tomorrow.
Blitz the hell out of the opposition.
Win games ugly. Whatever it takes.
The Reemergence of Justin Fields
The curious case of young quarterback Justin Fields might pay homage to the adage, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.” We say that because Fields reminds us of a young Terry Bradshaw. Once touted as one of football’s top prospects to being forced out of Chicago in favour of the “next big thing,” Fields has continued his journey to fulfill what Steelers legendary head coach Chuck Noll would’ve called his “life’s work.” In each of his three starts, Fields has elevated his game and done what it has taken to win.
Fields’ performance in Week 3 against the Los Angeles Chargers has garnered critical acclaim from the city’s most cherished figure, “Big Ben” Roethlisberger. Following the Steelers 20-10 victory, the two-time Super Bowl champion had this to say:
HIGH PRAISE: #NFL legend Ben Roethlisberger had very high praise for #Steelers QB Justin Fields
“If this is the guy we’re gonna get… this might be the guy of the future.”
👀👀👀
(via @_BigBen7 @matthewluciow92)
pic.twitter.com/zdvx9PMjql— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) September 24, 2024
That’s the greatest compliment Fields could’ve gotten, especially when most of the football world wrote him off as a bust before he was traded to the Steelers for a 2025 sixth-round draft pick that could turn into a fourth-rounder if Fields plays enough.
‘Yinzers aren’t the only ones starting to believe in the team. According to John Ewing, the conveyor of BetMGM’s betting market fun facts, although there haven’t been any big bets on a specific Steelers futures market, there has been some “significant line movement,”
As per Ewing:
- Super Bowl:
Open: +8000
Week 3: +4000
Now: +3500
- AFC Championship
Open: +4000
Week 3: +2200
Now: +1600
- AFC North:
Open: +1200
Week 3: +350
Now: +225
“34.7% of bets (most) are on the Steelers to win their division. Pittsburgh is the biggest liability to win the AFC North.”
There’s no question that the Steelers have an insanely tough schedule in the coming weeks, but that shouldn’t diminish the team’s massive accomplishment of starting the season off 3-0. People said Pittsburgh would be one of the league’s biggest disappointments. Not only have the renegade ballers flipped the script on the mainstream narrative, but they’re now playing with the house’s money.
Do you know what they say about that?
Men with nothing to lose will stop at nothing to win.
Lines To BET NOW
- Seattle Seahawks/Detroit Lions OVER 46.5 points (-103 @ Proline+): For whatever reason, the public twerps seem to like the UNDER here and say the total is too high. However, the Action Network Pro rates this total as fair. Sharp sources have also told us they’re leaning towards backing the OVER, especially if it gets bet down to 46 or even 45.5 by the public. Both offences should get a chance to shine. In our experience, the public LOVES hammering the OVER on primetime games, so if they’re on the UNDER, that’s the optimal time to fade ‘em.
- Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (-110 @ bet365): New Orleans took its first L of the season, which happened to be when the public bet the Bayou boys heavily. Now, it looks like the public is martingaling on the Saints (betting them back). Bookmakers knew this was going to happen. Yet, the Saints’ line opened at +2. Yes, Atlanta has home-field advantage, but it’s overrated. The line should’ve opened with the Saints as the favourites. As such, the sharp bettors are leaning towards the Falcons. It’s a scary bet, but it makes a lot of sense, and the line only seems to be rising.
Lines To WATCH
- Chicago Bears -2.5 (-125 @ BetVictor): From our intel, lots of sharps seem to be on the Bears. Nevertheless, the media has given up on the Bears, openly saying Chicago is an ‘easy fade.” Twerps bettors are listening to the press and backing the Los Angeles Rams heavily. Yet, Chicago’s line went from +1.5 to -3 since it opened. We want to see where the late money goes to ensure a head fake isn’t in the works. We’ll be “in for a nickel, in for a pound” if the money goes towards Chicago.
- Baltimore Ravens -1.5 (-113 @ Proline+): Lots of twerps thinking that the Bills are for real and are willing to bet Buffalo in any spot. Now, those twerps are getting a 3-0 team at as high as +2.5 on the road against an underperforming Ravens squad? Mofo, it’s Christmas in September for the causals. Once again, the reason why this isn’t a line to bet now is because we want to see where the late money goes, as sharp bettors are undecided on this game. For what it’s worth, we like Baltimore in this spot.
Lines To Avoid
- Tennessee Titans +1.5 (-106 @ Proline+): The “Battle of The Mid” is set to take place in Miami. As such, twerps and sharps are on both sides of the spread. The game is so challenging to pick on paper and seems like a bigger waste of money than the latest shitcoin your bro’s ex is trying to sell you. This is an easy pass for us.
- Houston Texans -6 (-110 @ BetMGM): If everything always went as it should, the Texans easily cover the spread, especially with how bad the Jags have played recently. That said, if Houston was a lock to cover the spread, why isn’t the game priced closer to -7.5 or -8? Something doesn’t sit right with this line. The fact that our sharp sources have nothing to say about this game makes us even more scared to try to play the Jags. We’ll pass on this game altogether.
TWO-MINUTE DRILL: Player Props We Like
- Sam Darnold (Minnesota Vikings) OVER 225.5 passing yards (-116 @ bet365): The Action Network Pro says you’ll get about a 9% edge on the line. A few profitable projection systems have this line closer to 232.5, giving us more value as it’s not just the Action Network Pro’s system picking up on this prop. Darnold should get a decent matchup against Green Bay’s secondary. Let’s spin the wheel and hope we land on red.
- Aaron Jones (Minnesota Vikings) OVER 13.5 rushing attempts (-105 @ Betano): We expect the offence to be dynamic and go 50/50 in terms of run-pass. Jones should get the ball a lot, especially if Minny has the lead late and is trying to run out the clock. The Action Network Pro says this line gives us a 15% edge. Yes, it’s not the brightest idea to bet OVERs on both the QB’s and RB’s props, but this game might be one of the very few exceptions. Good luck if you tail.
