An intelligent person might think that if they wanted to watch a soap opera containing high-octane, rock ’em, sock ’em action, they’d have to tune into WWE Friday Night Smackdown. The funny is that’s the farthest thing from the truth. The NFL packed a month’s worth of pro wrestling plotlines into one Sunday afternoon. From headline-making off-the-field interactions with Miami-Dale’s finest, satisfying on-the-field performances, and betting controversies, Week 1 had everything a fan could wish for when dreaming of a new football season. Moving onto Week 2, these are the storylines we’re following.
| Date | Time (ET) | Teams | Spread (bet365) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15 | 1:00 PM | Las Vegas Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens | Ravens -8.5 |
| Sep 15 | 1:00 PM | Los Angeles Chargers @ Carolina Panthers | Chargers -6.5 |
| Sep 15 | 1:00 PM | New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys | Cowboys -6.5 |
| Sep 15 | 1:00 PM | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions | Lions -7 |
| Sep 15 | 1:00 PM | Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Jaguars -3.5 |
| Sep 15 | 1:00 PM | New York Giants @ Washington Commanders | Commanders -2.5 |
| Sep 15 | 1:00 PM | Seattle Seahawks @ New England Patriots | Seahawks -3.5 |
| Sep 15 | 4:05 PM | Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals | Rams -1.5 |
| Sep 15 | 4:25 PM | Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs | Chiefs -6 |
| Sep 15 | 4:25 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos | Steelers -2.5 |
| Sep 15 | 8:20 PM | Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans | Texans -6.5 |
| Sep 16 | 8:15 PM | Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles | Eagles -6.5 |
Week 2 Storylines To Watch
Pork and Beef
Miami Dolphins star wide receiver Tyreek Hill went viral last week after his situation with the Miami-Dade police department escalated way further than both sides would’ve wanted. Although he felt fear that day, Hill was also PISSED OFF. There was no better way for him to blow off steam than by lighting up the Jacksonville Jaguars’ secondary for 130 receiving yards, capped off by an 80-yard touchdown reception, a catch-and-run play that would help the Dolphins fuel their 20-17 comeback victory. Hill followed that statement game with what former Toronto Maple Leafs bench boss Randy Carlyle would call a “just okay” showing against the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 2. Going forward, if he can string together a few solid games, especially with a backup QB at the helm, you ought to think Hill is a lock to win Offensive Player of the Year. He’s the main reason the Dolphins’ offence is actually scoring points.
Here Comes Your Man
From a quarterback without a home in Chicago to the unexpected Week 1 starter for the Pittsburgh Steelers, Justin Fields has been riding a tidal wave full of emotions over the past six months. After a solid “B+ performance,” according to Pittsburgh Steelers legend Ben Roethlisberger, against the Atlanta Falcons, Fields has earned himself another start in Week 2 versus the Denver Broncos. Although many of the ‘Burgh’s fans would’ve liked to see Russell Wilson get some revenge on his old club, it’ll be interesting to observe what Fields can do to kickstart the passing game. It’s been no secret that Steelers’ offensive coordinator Arthur Smith would be more content playing things conservatively on his side of the ball, but eh, like “Big Ben” said on his show, let the kid do his thing.
The Sky is Falling
Fans in the Queen City are starting to lose their patience. The memory of making it to the Super Bowl in 2022 is beginning to fade. Media personalities are starting to call Cinncinati Bengals franchise quarterback Joe Burrow a “has been” who can’t do anything without two top-tier wide receivers. The Bengals’ Week 1 loss against the New England Patriots, a team that was expected to be terrible, has apparently put the nail in the coffin of this season, especially when Cincy’s next game will be at Arrowhead Stadium against Patrick Mahomes and the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS. When we wrote our AFC North betting preview, we said the season’s biggest game for Cincy would be in Week 2 versus Mahomes and the Chiefs. Not to pat ourselves on the back too much, but we couldn’t have been more right. It’s turned into a “must-win.”
Week 2’s Fighting Words
Well before the San Francisco 49ers’ Week 1 showdown with the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets, San Fran listed its All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey as “questionable” on the team’s injury report. According to the NFL, listing players as “questionable” means they have a 50/50 chance at playing. The earlier the player is listed, the better their chance of playing. At least, that’s the industry standard. Nevertheless, if the player is almost not at all likely to play, they should be listed as “doubtful.” In the case of McCaffrey, he had something going on with his calf, along with “Achilles tendonitis.” This type of injury can keep someone out for up to four to six weeks, according to well-known medical professional Brian Sutterer, MD.
In other words, there was no shot in hell that McCaffrey was going to play in Week 1. His replacement, Jordan Mason, confirmed the good doctor’s diagnosis by saying the coaching staff told him he’d be starting (after they listed CMC as “questionable” on the injury report) on Friday. If this circumstantial evidence is to be believed, everyone was blindsided. The books, the bettors, and even the fantasy players got played like a fiddle… except those intelligent enough to back Mason’s props early.
The Drama Starts
Of course, Monday night comes, and the cat gets out of the bag a few hours before the game; CMC is out. San Fran’s line went from -4 to -3.5, and Mason’s props got adjusted. Most sportsbooks honoured those who took Mason’s lines early. Others waited till after the game to “readjust.”
Such operators have been criticized for what some sports traders, like David Terbet, would characterize as “lazy bookmaking and underhand resolution tactics.” To avoid more trouble at the henhouse, the operator reversed course. Nevertheless, the operator would’ve stuck to its guns if not for the blatant outcry from the bettors (and some behind-closed-doors talks with regulators).
Bettors Always Get Caught In The Crossfire
And that’s the thing about these NFL teams playing around with the injury reports. Some way, somehow, the bettors constantly get screwed. Canada Sports Betting contacted BetMGM to ask if its oddsmakers would readjust its approach to player props after the CMC debacle. BetMGM’s PR guy, John Ewing, said, “We do not expect any change to the player prop markets based on the late scratch situation with Christian McCaffrey.” TRANSLATION: It’s a part of the game.
The reason it’s a part of the goddamned game is because the NFL rallies behind its traditionalist fans who firmly believe the league and its teams don’t have to cater to the bettors. Yet, no matter where you are in North America or abroad, the league shoves sportsbook promos down your throat. Every single preview show has a slot for the hosts’ best bets. Hell, we’re writing Thursday Night Football betting previews, and our Better Collective brethren at the Action Network are busting their asses to find the edge in every single game on the slate, week after week, just to be told in a roundabout way that the league won’t cater to us?
That’s BS, and anybody with a brain knows it. When the NFL decided to capitalize on legalized sports betting in the States and then Canada, making tens of millions of dollars in deals, it made its bed. Now, more than ever, it’s time for the NFL to let the bettors know they matter, lest the league loses its integrity, and one of the most extensive drawers of sportsbook handle fades away into the night like horse racing is now.
If the league is worried about the ethics of gambling, it must remember that even saints were sinners, too.
Week 2 Lines To BET NOW
- Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 (-110 @ BetMGM): The sky might be falling in the Queen City, but that hasn’t stopped sharp bettors from backing the Bengals. Based on some algorithms we have seen within our Rolodex of sources, the suggested line for the Bengals is at +2.5/+3ish on the spread. Several sources have told CSB that anything above +3.5 provides value, which is why some of these sources choose to hammer the +6.5 opening line. The Action Network Pro also seems to like this line, giving it a B- grade. On top of that, If social media is to be of any indication, we know the public will be looking to jump on the Chiefs’ bandwagon and get off Cincy’s after Week 1. This is an excellent “buy low” spot on the Bengals.
- Carolina Panthers +6.5 (-112 @ Proline+): Our projection models have the line closer to where it opened, with the Los Angeles Chargers listed as -3.5 favourites. Tons of money has hit the Chargers, some of which we’ll admit is sharp. That said, we believe the Jim Harbaugh effect is getting everyone excited about the Chargers. By all means, the Chargers should romp. Regardless, we did see some sharp “buybacks” when the line pressed +6.5 and +6, so a head fake could be in the works with the sharps trying to get a reasonable price on Carolina. Now, some books are listing the Panthers as low as +5 dogs.
Week 2 Lines To WATCH
- Cleveland Browns +3 (-105 @ BetVictor): There seems to be a ton of sucker money hitting the Jags. Based on our sources, it’s hard to tell if sharp money is also hitting the Jags. Nevertheless, in some private Telegram chats for international betting syndicates, there’s a strong urge to buy in large on the Browns if they get up to +3.5. In our eyes, this could be a decent bounce-back spot for Cleveland, so if the hook is offered closer to kickoff, it might be worth a look.
- Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-110 @ bet365): There might be a head fake in the works for this game. Several regulated bookmakers have reported heavy action on the Broncos. According to an offshore bookmaker, his book is seeing similar betting action. In their own words, “Sharps might be looking to hammer Pitts when limits increase to their highest.” The only thing is the trader is purely speculating; we don’t have enough empirical/circumstantial data to say this is actually the case. He could very well be trying to play us, knowing that this will get released to the tens of thousands of readers who frequent CSB. For what it’s worth: We do like the Steelers in this spot.
Lines To Avoid
- Indianapolis Colts -2 (-125 @ BetMGM): We don’t like this play because of how so many different algorithms have this line all over the place. Some have suggested this line should be as high as Colts -7.5. Others have suggested Colts -1.5. There’s a six-point difference, and that’s never a good sign. Also, unlike some betting experts, we don’t think the Green Bay Packers are a “live dog.” We could be dead wrong, but we’re not paying to find out.
- Baltimore Ravens -8.5 (-110 @ bet365): We can’t get ourselves to like this line. It opened at -7.5; most algorithms say it should be around -10 or higher. There’s a good chance the books knew the public would force the line up. Why bother giving too much value to the Raiders? That said, we don’t think the bookies take a massive risk on Baltimore unless they’re afraid of money hitting the Raiders. We couldn’t back the Raiders against the Ravens. However, this line just feels too short on the Ravens, especially in a spot most would expect Lamar Jackson and co. to cover easily. It’s an easy pass for us.
TWO-MINUTE DRILL: Player Props We Like
- C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans) OVER 8.5 rushing yards (-105 @ Pinnacle): The Action Network Pro has the line set at 12, giving perspective bettors like us an 18% edge. Mr. Touch and Bust may have to rush for a first down or two, as we expect the secondary won’t give him much to work with. Nine yards isn’t much to ask for, so we’ll see how this goes.
- Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals) OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (+119 @ Pinnacle): The Action Network Pro indicates there’s roughly an 8.1% edge, which isn’t bad. The price is lucrative enough to roll the dice in this specific situation. We do expect the Cards’ offence to be pass-first. However, the only thing that scares us is that Murray may rush for TDs instead of passing for them.
