The NFL is back! Week 1 is at the behest. We know you probably don’t care much about that on this blessed Saturday. You’re probably too busy getting your Week 14 CFL bets in or watching the much-anticipated college football showdown between Texas and Michigan. Still, when all the dust settles and the Wolverines pull off the upset, there’s no denying you’ll get in the mood for some gridiron action courtesy of the No Fun League.
And who knows how crazy this season will be? Maybe this is the year the NFL steals all your attention? After all, every season has its can’t-miss storylines. What we think will be the main plot is sometimes the side quest. The fun of it all is watching it unfold in real-time.
Going into Week 1, these are the storylines to watch.
| Date | Time (ET) | Teams | bet365 Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Sep 5 | 8:20 p.m. | Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs | Chiefs -3 |
| Fri, Sep 6 | 8:15 p.m. | Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles | Eagles -3 |
| Sun, Sep 8 | 1:00 p.m. | Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons | Falcons -3 |
| Sun, Sep 8 | 1:00 p.m. | Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills | Bills -7.5 |
| Sun, Sep 8 | 1:00 p.m. | Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears | Bears -1.5 |
| Sun, Sep 8 | 1:00 p.m. | New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals | Bengals -4.5 |
| Sun, Sep 8 | 1:00 p.m. | Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts | Colts -2.5 |
| Sun, Sep 8 | 1:00 p.m. | Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins | Dolphins -3 |
| Sun, Sep 8 | 1:00 p.m. | Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints | Saints -3.5 |
| Sun, Sep 8 | 1:00 p.m. | Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants | Giants -1 |
| Sun, Sep 8 | 4:00 p.m. | Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers | Chargers -3.5 |
| Sun, Sep 8 | 4:00 p.m. | Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks | Seahawks -2.5 |
| Sun, Sep 8 | 4:25 p.m. | Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns | Browns -2.5 |
| Sun, Sep 8 | 4:25 p.m. | Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Buccaneers -3 |
| Sun, Sep 8 | 8:20 p.m. | Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions | Lions -3.5 |
| Mon, Sep 9 | 8:15 p.m. | New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers | 49ers -4 |
Week 1 Storylines To Watch
IT’S THE BEARS YEAR
There are tons of exciting things to look out for in Chicago. For starters, quarterback Caleb Williams, the Bears’ first-overall pick in 2024, looks to be the real deal. As such, bookmakers have listed the Bears as four-point favourites at home against the Tennesse Titans. According to former oddsmaker and current host of the “Bet The Board Podcast” Todd Fuhrman, if Bears -4 holds or even gets higher, it would be the most significant Week 1 spread for a rookie QB installed as the favourite since Pittsburgh Steelers legend Terry Bradshaw went off as a five-point chalk in his 1970 rookie debut.
Fun Fact: Bradshaw’s opponent in that game was the Houston Oilers, who defeated the Steelers 19-7. Does history repeat itself, or does Williams get the ball rolling early in his NFL career?
THE ‘NEW LOOK’ STEELERS
Speaking of the Steelers, Pittsburgh’s “new look” offence will look to step things up early in the season. It has yet to be seen if Russell Wilson will return to his “best form” or if Justin Fields will reach the “next level.” A good chunk of the experts have said it’ll be hard for that to happen with new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith at the helm. Nevertheless, the Yinzer Gang still believes. The bookmakers don’t seem to like the Steelers this week, offering Pittsburgh +3.5 at some sportsbooks. However, Mike Tomlin is 8-9 ATS in Week 1, so maybe +3.5 might not be as big of a gift as some might think. Of course, only time will tell.
🎶WHAT’S SO GOOD ABOUT PICKING UP THE PIECES? 🎶
Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. That’s the Buffalo Bills for you, bud. With Stefon Diggs off to Houston and no bonafide WR1, Buffalo’s wide receiver corps leaves much to be desired. The defence doesn’t inspire much confidence in the team, either. Nevertheless, the expectations for Buffalo seem to be sky-high. That’s mainly because the team still has franchise quarterback Josh Allen to lead the way. We’ll caution that he’s only one player. While Buffalo was busy staying “mid,” the team’s AFC East division rivals managed to get slightly better. That’s not to say Buffalo can’t win the AFC East and make a push in the playoffs. But a lot has to go right. Does that mean a strong showing in Week 1 against the +7.5 point underdogs Arizona Cardinals is in the cards? You better hope so. The Bills are running out of chances.
Week 1’s Fighting Words
We all bet for a reason. Everyone’s reasons are different. One person might want to have money on the game to make things interesting. Another might be trying to profit, and many people in the middle are lost in dreams of grandeur.
The fact of the matter is, you won’t get rich in one week. That said, you can definitely go broke if you don’t have any impulse control. Yes, you’ll see the odd person on social media who’ll hit big betting on some insane parlay. Pay attention to who promotes those wins, though. Nine out of 10 times, it’s a sportsbook. Now, why would the books want to promote that? To get those who don’t know better to play parlays and “give in” to the books’ edge. Don’t be that sucker. Think smart. Pass on the “lottery ticket parlays.”
Thinking smart also starts with gambling responsibly. The easiest way to do that is to manage your bankroll wisely. For example, let’s say you have $2,000 to last you for the entire season. That’s your bankroll. We recommend breaking down your bankroll to 100 units. Each unit would represent $20. Set a limit for each week. Keep things tight for the first couple of weeks by only wagering 5-7 units per week. You can increase your bet size once you can access more data that gives you a better idea of what you’re betting on. Until then, stay disciplined!
GET TO THE POINT!!!
If you don’t know what you’re doing, it’s best to bet small, maybe a unit or two per wager. If you really like a play, you can up the bet size to 3-5 units, but we recommend doing that sparsely. We know it’s not what you want to hear, but it’s what you need to hear if you still want to have somewhat of a bankroll to play with in November and December.
The fact is the NFL is the most challenging league to make money on. The lines and the associated prices are designed to yield profit to the sportsbooks and are monitored rigorously due to the league’s popularity. Even the sharpest of bettors have a tough time betting on the NFL. And newsflash, unless you’re clairvoyant, you’ll get destroyed if you’re not careful.
Make a budget, bet wisely, and don’t listen to people that tell you to wager 25% of your bankroll on the crappiest play on the board. Follow the path to righteousness, learn how to spot good plays, and eventually, you’ll see the fruits of your labour pay off, even if you have to take some Ls along the way.
Week 1 Lines To BET NOW
- Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (-115 @ Bet99): Do you really think Kurt Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons can withstand Pittsburgh’s defence all game long? According to our friends at Action Network, “the Steelers pressured opposing QBs on 36% of pass attempts with tight coverage in the last four weeks of the regular season—3rd-best in NFL; Falcons QBs had a 15.2 passer rating against tight coverage in the last four weeks of the regular season—7th-worst in NFL.” These teams are similar in many ways, and the game should be evenly matched. That said, get that bum Kirk Cousins off his game, and a Steelers cover is evermore likely.
- Indianapolis Colts +3 (-110 @ Betway): Everyone on God’s green earth is backing the Houston Texans Sunday afternoon. Yes, the matchup does favour Houston, but are we going to sleep on Colts QB Anthony Richardson? The kid is a game-changer for Indy when healthy. If the Colts’ defence can tame Texans QB CJ Stroud and control the time of possession, an outright Indianapolis win isn’t out of the question. Multiple sources have indicated to CSB that there’s a point and a half in value on the Colts. Action Network’s Pro Projections can back that up. There’s no guarantee Indy plays up to par, but if that happens, you get a decent chance to put some much-needed cash into your pocket.
Lines To WATCH
- New York Giants +2 (-110 @ Bet99): Action Network Pro indicates that this line gives us a decent edge, within the range of 3.5%. What we want to see is if the twerpy bettors will continue to hammer the Minnesota Vikings. We have heard rumblings through our sources that sharp bettors are starting to nibble on the Giants. Once limits increase over the weekend, will that nibble turn into strong sharp buys, leading to a “pros vs. joes” setup? If that’s the case, count us in. Both these teams suck, so it’s anyone’s game.
- Chicago Bears -3.5 (-106 @ Proline+): Call us fanboys, but we’re high on the Bears this year. Williams has a decent team in front of him, an above-average defence, and a good coaching staff. Three and a half to four points isn’t a lot to lay on a team with those intangibles, though we want to be mindful, too. We’ll give the Bears our blessing if we see some sharp buys come Sunday.
Week 1 Lines To Avoid
- New York Jets +4.5 (-110 @ bet365): So many touts are overhyping Aaron Rodgers. Yes, the guy is a beast when he’s healthy. That said, the Jets aren’t as good of a team as some say. Plus, Rodgers is an injury away from calling it quits. If there’s any other QB in there for New York, most would be hammering San Francisco, but no, the love has extended to Rodgers. We want none of that action.
- Washington Commanders +3.5 (-115 @ BetMGM): We’re sorry, but Commanders’ new QB Jaylen Daniels is RG3 2.0. He might go off in the first game and cover the spread, but something tells me the books might have already made the call. Never mind the fact that Action Network Pro says this line is terrible. If you’re looking for value, you won’t find it here—hard pass. We out.
TWO MINUTE DRILL: Player Props We Like
- Devante Adams (Las Vegas Raiders) UNDER 72.5 receiving yards (+110 @ bet365): The Chargers’ secondary is ready to make a statement by shutting down its kryptonite, Devante Adams. We don’t know how the deed is done, but God willing, it gets done.
- D’Andre Swift (Chicago Bears) OVER 41.5 rushing yards (-120 @ Proline+): Caleb Williams will get that passing game going, and when he does, that’ll open the floodgates for Swift on the ground. Add the fact that the Action Network Pro Projections is giving this line a nice passing grade; what more is there not to like?
- UPDATE (9/7/24 12:00 PM): Multiple reports indicate that the Steelers will rule OUT Wilson for the season opener after he sustained a calf injury in practice sometime this week. If you have already made a bet on this prop, your bet will count as “VOID,” and the money will be refunded to your account. Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh Steelers) OVER 196.5 passing yards (-115 @ NorthStar Bets): LET RUSS COOK! LET HIM FREAKING COOK! All jokes aside, we have this line projected closer to 220.5. It’s hard not to like it. Just have to hope the Steelers depleted offensive line gives him time to scan the secondary and throw the ball. If the plan is to throw deep bombs off the play action, the chance to get passing yards will be there.
