Thursday Night Football Betting Preview (Sept. 12): Bills vs. Dolphins Predictions

Khalil Shakir #10 celebrates with teammates after his receiving touchdown during the third quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at Highmark Stadium on September 08, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York

After a thrilling opening week of action across the NFL, Week 2 is kicking off with a thrilling clash between AFC East rivals as the Buffalo Bills take on the Miami Dolphins. With both teams looking to remain undefeated, this matchup is sure to bring high stakes along with it.

Bet on Bills vs. Dolphins

BUF +2.5
MIA -2.5

The Bills have largely dominated this divisional rivalry in recent seasons, but the explosiveness of the Dolphins’ high-octane offence can never be counted out.

Opening as the favourites for Thursday Night Football, the Dolphins are poised to defend home turf against the Bills as 2.5-point favourites. After seemingly shaking off the rust of the offseason in the second half of both of their respective comeback wins in Week 1, these AFC contenders will be looking to score a big win early in the season.

As these two high-powered offences take centre stage, you can expect no shortage of highlight reel plays in this primetime affair.

Bills vs. Dolphins Odds

Bills Moneyline Odds+110
Dolphins Moneyline Odds-137
Spread oddsDolphins -2.5 (-110), Bills +2.5 (-115)
Over/Under49 points (over -110, under -115)
Time/DateSep. 12, 8:15 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: TSN/DAZN

All odds courtesy of BetVictor Canada

Betting Buffalo Bills (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 o/u)

After scoring a comeback victory against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1, there is still some uncertainty surrounding the Bills’ outlook this season. While superstar quarterback Josh Allen was able to make magic on the gridiron for a number of timely scores, going down to the wire against a subpar Cardinals team isn’t exactly something to hang your hat on.

Going up against tough competition in the Dolphins, this will be a true test of the Bills’ ability and upside as they will need to match the offensive output of their opponents. Inversely, the Dolphins defence is far superior to that of the Cardinals, and will make it difficult for the visitors to find the end zone.

In their first game as an underdog in 2024, the Bills will look to improve upon their 1-2 underdog record from last season in this upcoming marquee matchup.

Betting Miami Dolphins (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 o/u)

Notching a come-from-behind win against the Jacksonville Jaguars in dramatic fashion in Week 1, the Dolphins didn’t showcase the same high-end offence that took the league by storm in recent years. Aside from a jaw-dropping 80-yard touchdown scored by Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins offence looked human against the Jags.

Hoping to find their footing in Week 2, the Dolphins have the chance to finally gain the upper hand in what has been a one-sided rivalry as of late against the Bills.

With their last win against Buffalo coming in the 2022 season, the Dolphins will look to take advantage of their depleted roster as they look to win their first divisional crown since 2008.

Betting Mismatch

Set for a big game against the Bills, look for Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to light up the boxscore as he passes for Over 266 yards against the Bills.

After leading the NFL in passing yards in 2023, Tua continued his success of moving the rock downfield as he tallied the most passing yards of any player in Week 1. While he’s had trouble finding openings against the Bills’ defence in the past, this season could tell a different story.

While the Bills were able to hold Cardinals quarterback, Kyler Murray to 162 yards through the air, Tagovailoa is a far better passer with one of the best receiving corps in the NFL at his disposal. Look for the Bills secondary to have a rough night at the office in this primetime tilt. Hammer the Over on Tua’s passing yards total on Thursday Night Football as he lets the pigskin fly for big gains early and often in Week 2.

Tua Tagovailoa Over 266 Passing Yards

-118

Key Injuries

Still set to be without linebacker Matt Milano and tackle Travis Clayton as they remain on the team IR, the Bills will also be shorthanded in the secondary as cornerback Taron Johnson has been ruled out against the Dolphins. Defensive end Dawuane Smoot will also be inactive on Thursday Night Football, while running back Ty Johnson and defensive end Justin Solomon hold questionable designations.

The Dolphins have a major question mark entering into Thursday Night Football as their backfield could be decimated. With star running back De’Von Achane questionable to compete, second-string back Raheem Mostert has been ruled out completely. Along with this, other key members of the Dolphins lineup are questionable including cornerback Jalen Ramsey, linebacker Jaelan Phillips, and tackle Liam Eichenberg.

Weather

Miami is set to play host to this week’s Thursday Night Football clash, and with it brings some uncertainty around the weather conditions heading into the game. While there’s no rain expected during the game, thunderstorms are expected throughout the afternoon hours. Due to this, prepare for the possibility of unwelcome playing conditions during Thursday Night Football, a factor that could make a major impact on both team’s offensive success.

  • Including the playoffs, the Bills have won four-straight head-to-head matchups against the Dolphins.
  • Three of the last four games between these teams have resulted in Over 49 total points scored.
  • In 2023, the Dolphins were fantastic as home favourites, having covered the spread in six of their eight matchups (75% cover rate).
  • The Bills were 1-2 straight-up as away underdogs in 2023.
  • Josh Allen has thrown for 300+ passing yards in four consecutive regular season games against the Dolphins.
  • Elusive outside of the pocket, Josh Allen has rushed for Over 37 yards in three of his last five regular season games against the Dolphins.
  • In 2023, De’Von Achane scored a touchdown in both games against against the Bills.
  • Jaylen Waddle has finished with Under fiive receptions against the Bills in four straight appearances.

Bills vs. Dolphins predictions

  • Both teams enter Thursday Night Football with banged up rosters, but the edge still resides with the favoured Dolphins. With the Bills defence without several of their top players, the Dolphins will have no trouble moving the ball through the air, keeping the pressure on their opponents as the Bills struggle to match their offensive output. Back the Dolphins to cover the 2.5-point spread as they improve to 2-0 in the 2024 NFL season.
  • With uncertainties surrounding the health of many key offensive players, as well as the potential for inclement weather, the Under is the smart bet to place. These two teams are familiar with each other’s play style, meaning they will have game-planned accordingly in order to take away easy scoring chances on both sides. Look for points to come at a premium in this Week 2 opener. Bet the Under 49-point total.