The Minnesota Vikings haven’t been able to bank on the charmed luck that carried them throughout 2022. After winning all 11 games that were decided by eight points or fewer last season, they are 5-5 in such contests this year.
They’ve also been trying to navigate their way to the playoffs despite a season-ending injury to quarterback Kirk Cousins and a major hamstring injury that has cost them superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson for the past six games.
Bet on Bears vs. Vikings
They can scant afford to lose this week on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET) as field goal home favourites against an improving Chicago Bears team. This Bears team has struggled in their own neighborhood, however. Going into this NFC North rivalry game, the Bears have dropped their last 12 games to division opponents.
Bettors have profited greatly on this Vikings team behind longshot quarterback story Josh Dobbs, as Minnesota has covered the spread in its last six games.
Bears vs. Vikings odds
| Bears Moneyline Odds | +135 |
| Vikings Moneyline Odds | -155 |
| Spread odds | Vikings -3 |
| Over/Under | 44 points (over -110, under -110) |
| Time/Date | Nov. 27, 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: TSN |
All odds courtesy of 
About the Bears (3-8 SU, 4-5-2 ATS, 7-4 o/u)
Quarterback Justin Fields returned from a four-game injury hiatus last week and nearly led a massive upset over the Detroit Lions before the Bears folded late, blowing a 12-point lead in the final three minutes. Fields looked good completing 16 of his 23 pass attempts for 169 yards and a touchdown, good for a 105.2 rating. He added 104 yards rushing.
Fields might have to run frequently in this one for his team to have a chance as running back D’Onta Foreman left last week’s game with an injury and isn’t expected to play in this one.
The Bears forced four takeaways in Detroit and they no doubt will be looking to continue their ball-hawking ways against a Vikings team that looked careless with the ball at times last season.
All in all, though, the Bears’ plight this season has been at the feet of a defence that gave up 17 points in the fourth quarter last week and is averaging 26 points allowed per game, fourth-most in the NFL. The Bears’ pass rush is particularly inept, with their 15 sacks ranking last in the NFL. They are more stout against the run, giving up just 79.5 rushing yards per game.
About the Vikings (6-5 SU, 7-3-1 ATS, 3-8 o/u)
Minnesota would have been in far better shape if it had been able to hold onto a lead vs. the Denver Broncos last week, but its struggles in close games cropped up again late. Alexander Mattison had a crushing late fumble and the Broncos wiped out a game-long deficit to win it late.
The loss boiled down to losing the turnover battle 3-0 in that game.
Much of Dobbs’ success has been the result of some long runs to keep drives alive and, in some cases, to break games in Minnesota’s favour. By ESPN’s Expected Points Added metric, he’s the been the most valuable running quarterback in the NFL this season. He has 15 runs of 10 or more yards and he already is second in the NFL in yards after contact per run.
His frequent dashes have come with some risk, however, as he leads the NFL in fumbles.
Minnesota’s defence dominated the first meeting of these teams in a 19-13 win back on Oct. 15 and the Vikings’ aggressive approach hurt the Bears quite literally when Fields was sacked five times and injured his throwing hand while scrambling, the injury that kept him out of action for four weeks.
Minnesota loves to bring pressure and how Fields handles that could decide this game. Minnesota brings extra pass rushers on 47% of opponents’ dropbacks, most in the NFL.
Betting mismatch
With Fields under pressure to get rid of the ball quickly given Minnesota’s blitz-happy style, he could be tempted to dump the ball off frequently to running backs. Lately, when Chicago has done that, Khalil Herbert has been the recipient of those short passes. In fact, he has become a big part of Chicago’s offence since last these teams met.
Herbert has been targeted on 23.8% of Chicago’s snaps since Week 7, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL over that span. He also has made the most of his short receptions, averaging 7.4 yards per catch in his six games.
Minnesota defence, which tends to load the box, can be difficult to run against, holding rival running backs to limited production all season long. It ranks sixth in the league in EPA allowed per handoff, allowing just 3.7 yards per rushing attempt. That, too, could prompt Chicago to find other means of playing ball control here.
It’s certainly worth considering taking over-10.5 yards (at -110) on Herbert receiving yards in this one. Given what we said about Fields and his hot reads, it’s also worth considering taking over 1.5 receptions for Herbert.
Khalil Herbert over 10.5 receiving yards
-110
Key injuries
The Bears are in good shape heading into this game. G Larry Borom won’t play due to illness and LB Noah Sewell (knee) and RB D’Onta Foreman (ankle) are doubtful, while CB Tyrique Stevenson (ankle) is questionable, but the rest of the team is good to go.
The Vikings, too, are reasonably sound aside from the Cousins injury. Jefferson (hamstring) remains questionable, as do CB Akayleb Evans (calf) and DL Khyiris Tonga (knee). The rest of the squad, including TE T.J. Hockenson, who dealt with a rib injury earlier, should be ready for this one.
Weather
Though it will be seasonably cold in Minneapolis, with temperatures at kickoff expected to be about -10 C, it should be comfortable under the roof at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Betting trends
- The Vikings are 2-1 as favourites of three points or greater this season.
- Minnesota’s games have had an average point total of 45.2 points this season, 1.2 points above this game’s total. Chicago’s games have averaged 43.4 points, 0.6 points fewer.
- When the underdog of +125 or more on the moneyline, Chicago has won only one of its seven games.
Player prop trends
- Despite his 341 rushing yards this season, Fields has reached the end zone on the ground just once. Keep that in mind if you’re tempted to take his +175 odds to score in this one.
- The Vikings like to spread the ball around in the red zone, which sometimes leads to low touchdown totals for everybody. Cousins and Dobbs have combined to distribute their 22 touchdown passes to seven different receivers, led by Jordan Addison (seven).
- Danielle Hunter entered this week second only to Myles Garrett with 12 sacks. He is -160 to pick up a sack in this one.
Wagers to consider
- The Vikings might be running out of patience with Mattison after last week’s crucial fumble and an otherwise disappointing season. Lately, Ty Chandler has been eating into Mattison’s touches. Chandler had 114 total yards on 14 touches vs. Denver and the guess is that trend will continue. Consider taking over 32.5 rushing yards for Chandler (at -110).
- Fields and the Bears haven’t been good at handling Minnesota’s pressure in the past and they generally look their worst against NFC North opponents. Meanwhile, Dobbs’ Cinderella story could start petering out as teams realize he isn’t much of a threat to pass his team to victory. Consider taking under 44 points (-110) in this classic division rivalry game.
