There is nothing more dangerous in sports than giving hope to the many-times-burned, but the Buffalo Bills and their fans are ready to be hurt again. A combination of their own impressive start and the dysfunction around them has caused the team to find many of its key benchmarks moving in their favour on the NFL betting markets.
| Betting Option | Pre Week 1 | Post Week 2 |
|---|---|---|
| To Win Super Bowl | +1200 | +1200 |
| To Win AFC Championship | +700 | +550 |
| To Win AFC East | +170 | +105 |
| Make Playoffs – Yes | -170 | -300 |
| 10.5 Wins – Over | +130 | -135 |
After sputtering out of the gate in the first half of their season opener against the Arizona Cardinals, things have been pretty smooth sailing since. The Bills stormed out in the third quarter of that Week 1 matchup, picked a pair of touchdowns, and held strong in the fourth to secure a 34-28 victory. In yesterday’s Thursday Night Football action against the Miami Dolphins, it wasn’t all that close. Despite being 2.5-point underdogs going into opening kickoff, Buffalo had no trouble building up a 14-point lead by halftime, adding another touchdown off of a pick-six, and shutting it down from there.
James Cook was a particular revelation for the Bills against Miami, producing three rushing touchdowns, including a 49-yard run on the third effort.
Beating a division rival in such a decisive fashion is one reason the Bills have seen their odds shift so quickly, both from a perspective of expectation and one of raw math. Simply put, it’s easier to achieve your regular season goals when you’ve got a 2-0 start tucked in your pocket and have given one of your biggest threats a loss.
Bills to win AFC East
Another reason for the shift is more unfortunate and came indirectly at their hands yesterday. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion while trying to scramble for a first down in the third quarter, one that, given his history, puts not just his short-term but perhaps his whole season or career into question. Miami’s odds to win the AFC East have already dipped from +200 to +340 as a result of both the loss and the concerns about their starting QB’s injury.
The New York Jets have also seen a slight dip in their own division odds as a result of their 32-19 Week 1 loss to the 49ers, where Aaron Rodgers had a disappointing first full game with the team. With that said, given how his Achilles injury from last season has left him effectively a year and a half removed from play, the books aren’t panicking just yet.
One area that hasn’t quite shifted yet is the Bills’ odds of winning their first Super Bowl. In that sense, it’s still very early to predict a winner, and the fact that the top three favourites in the opposing NFC conference all won their Week 1 debuts probably doesn’t help with needle movement.
The Bills now have 10 days off before their next game on September 23rd against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They already find themselves sitting as 3.5-point favourites and -205 favourites outright. Their next big test will likely be in Week 4 against the Baltimore Ravens on September 29th. Baltimore is tied with Buffalo for the second-shortest odds to win the AFC Championship, both sitting at +550.
