Of all the divisions in the National Football League, there might not be one that gets less love and attention – especially right now – than the NFC South. After all, a relative lack of big market teams and present-day Super Bowl contenders means that when things aren’t firing on all cylinders in at least or two of the four cities involved, the competition here loses a little bit of attention.
Thanks for reading our NFL Divisional Preview Series! Be sure to check out our previews for all eight divisions:
AFC North – AFC South – AFC East – AFC West – NFC North – NFC South – NFC East – NFC West
Today, we’re here to argue that that shouldn’t be the case. With the rising Atlanta Falcons, still competitive Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints, and even some intrigue in Carolina as the Panthers try to rebound from a rock-bottom 2023, there are plenty of storylines to keep you entertained amidst a dogfight for playoff seeding. Sometimes, it’s not about chasing the brand names but finding the most excitement and value in niche corners, and that’s what this division is all about this year.
Super Bowl winner to come from NFC South Division
And hey, there’s still plenty of star power to get you hooked. Without further ado, here’s our NFC South betting preview featuring odds from bet365.
Atlanta Falcons
Super Bowl odds: +2500
To Win Conference odds: +1200
Division odds: -130
Odds to make the Playoffs: Yes -210, No +165
Season Win Total: Over 9.5 (-140), Under 9.5 (+110)
2023 record: 7-10, third in NFC South
Key additions: QB Kirk Cousins, CB Antonio Hamilton, WR Ray-Ray McCloud, WR Darnell Mooney, WR Rondale Moore, QB Michael Penix Jr., DL Ruke Orhorhoro, Edge Bralen Trice
Key subtractions: Edge Bud Dupree, C Matt Hennessy, WR Van Jefferson, WR Mack Hollins, CB Jeff Okudah, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, QB Desmond Ridder, TE Jonnu Smith
Most important game on the schedule: Week 14 against the Minnesota Vikings. Not so much for the Falcons themselves, but for Kirk Cousins, who will be returning to his old stomping grounds after the Vikings decided to go younger. That call has already started to backfire with a crushing pre-season injury to J.J. McCarthy, but it’ll be interesting to see where exactly they’re at and if Atlanta can add another win to their playoff/division push.
Prop to watch: Bijan Robinson to lead NFL in Rushing Yards, +1400. This will be a pretty competitive field, with six halfbacks ahead of him. Still, Robinson already looked gifted as a rookie and will likely look even better under a coaching staff that is more willing to utilize him.
Potential breakout player: Kyle Pitts, TE. The Cousins and coaching bump is likely to impact most of the Falcons’ offensive weapons, but no one will benefit more than Pitts. The previous regime used 3+ receivers on their offensive plays far less than the rest of the league, but more aggression has already been shown in the preseason. That can only benefit the talented tight end.
Betting projection: Look to the Falcons to be the class of the division this year. While Cousins is moving dangerously close to his victory lap year, he still has the goods, and he’ll be a massive upgrade on what the Falcons had available to them last season. The continued growth of Robinson will allow for some versatility. While the team’s passing defence continues to be a bit of a question mark, that should, at minimum, make them among the NFL’s most entertaining teams. A run to the Super Bowl is an unlikely dream, but a season that puts respect back on Atlanta’s name feels very likely.
Bijan Robinson to lead the NFL in rushing yards
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Super Bowl odds: +6600
To win conference odds: +3300
Division odds: +325
Odds to make the playoffs: Yes +150, No -185
Season win total: Over 7.5 (-145), Under 7.5 (+115)
2023 record: 9-8, 1st in NFC South
Key additions: Edge Randy Gregory, CB Bryce Hall, G Sua Opeta, S Jordan Whitehead, OL Graham Barton, Edge Chris Braswell, S Tykee Smith, WR Jalen McMillan
Key subtractions: Edge Shaquil Barrett, CB Carlton Davis, G Nick Leverett, G Aaron Stinnie, LB Devin White
Most important game on the schedule: Week 2 against the Detroit Lions. Revenge is a dish best served cold and second best served early. If the Bucs want to prove that they’re a legitimate team to watch this season, there would be no better time to do it than right at the start of the season, against an elite team, and an elite team that ended their season in 2023.
Prop to watch: Mike Evans over 1,050.5 receiving yards (-110). Evans has been one of the most reliable wide receivers in the sport for years now, picking up 1,000+ receiving yards in 10 consecutive seasons. Last year saw him post the third-best result of his career with 1,255, well clearing this year’s line. He might be about to turn 31, but you can’t argue with his track record.
Potential breakout player: Chris Godwin, WR. Could a shift in offensive coordinators lead to more touchdowns here? New OC Liam Coen has talked about using Godwin in more of a slot role, which should help shift the numbers a bit. Godwin has produced yardage in recent years but only converted points five times in the last two seasons – the potential is here to turn that around.
Betting projection: With Cousins now and Penix later, the Falcons seem set to set the tone for this division for a while. At the same time, the Bucs come into this season with a shot at winning a fourth consecutive division title and a team that still has enough pieces to make this a race. Can Baker Mayfield build on a career year? Can Mike Evans remain as consistent as ever? Tampa Bay’s biggest issue might not even be those questions but the gauntlet of top-end opponents they play over the first 10 weeks, but if they can get through that, they’ll be as battle-tested as anyone come the playoffs. As far as mid-pack teams go, they’ll be one of the more interesting ones. I say take the wins over and even give consideration to a playoff spot.
 | To win Super Bowl | To win division | To make the playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | +2500 | -130 | -210 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +6600 | +325 | +150 |
| New Orleans Saints | +8000 | +350 | +170 |
| Carolina Panthers | +25000 | +1100 | +550 |
New Orleans Saints
Super Bowl odds: +8000
To win conference odds: +3500
Division odds: +350
Odds to make the playoffs: Yes +170, No -220
Season win total: Over 7.5 (-130), Under 7.5 (+100)
2023 record: 9-8, 2nd in NFC South
Key additions: LB Willie Gay, QB Nathan Peterman, WR Cedrick Wilson Jr., Edge Chase Young, IOL Taliese Fuaga, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, QB Spencer Rattler
Key subtractions: LB Zack Baun, CB Lonnie Johnson, DL Malcolm Roach, WR Michael Thomas, QB Jameis Winston, CB Isaac Yiadom
Most important game on the schedule: Week 7 against the Denver Broncos. Once again, we look to a hyped-up reunion. In this case, it might mean a little bit more to the other side, as it’s the return of Broncos coach Sean Payton.
Prop to watch: Chris Olave, over 1,075.5 receiving yards (-110). The 23-year-old posted 1,123 receiving yards in 2023, and as his familiarity with Derek Carr and the NFL at large grows, so should the realization of his potential. The loss of Michael Thomas is a blow to the team, but it will likely lead to more looks and at least a maintained total this year, which would be enough to clear the line.
Potential breakout player: Rasheed Shaheed, WR. It’s hard to pick a pure breakout candidate for the Saints this year, but if you want some excitement while you follow along, it’s hard to ignore Shaheed. The second-year pro bumped up his touchdown total from two to five last year, and all five were on 20+ yard bombs. No receiver in the NFL generated a higher passer rating for his quarterback on deep throws. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak was no stranger to big plays in San Francisco, so expect more usage here.
Betting projection: Unfortunately for the Saints, this doesn’t project to be a great year for them. While they have a few interesting individual talents, their offensive and defensive lines have both been called into question by experts across the football scene. Their additions have largely been depth pieces or are rookies who will need time to catch their groove. We don’t see this team falling completely off a cliff, but missing the playoffs (-220) seems like a safe bet.
Chris Olave over 1,075.5 receiving yards, regular season
Carolina Panthers
Super Bowl odds: +25000
To win conference odds: +12500
Division odds: +1100
Odds to make the playoffs: Yes +550, No -900
Season win total: Over 5.5 (-130), Under 5.5 (+100)
2023 record: 2-15, 4th in NFC South
Key additions: Edge Jadeveon Clowney, S Jordan Fuller, G Robert Hunt, WR Diontae Johnson, G Damien Lewis, DL A’Shawn Robinson, WR Xavier Legette, RB Jonathon Brooks, LB Trevin Wallace
Key subtractions: S Vonn Bell, C Bradley Bozeman, Edge Brian Burns, CB Donte Jackson, LB Frankie Luvu, TE Hayden Hurst
Most important game on the schedule: Week 13 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Finally, a divisional matchup in this mix, but weirdly enough – that might not even matter here. In this case, it’s more about a return game for new Head Coach Dave Canales, who was Tampa’s offensive coordinator last year. Can he outsmart the very same Baker Mayfield that he helped find his footing with the Bucs?
Prop to watch: Worst Regular Season Record, +700. Expectations aren’t high for the Panthers at all, though their win total line of 5.5 is a healthy improvement from the two they had last season. I’m not sure if I’d pick up on this one right away, but it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on, as Carolina carries the third-shortest odds for the bottom position.
Potential breakout player: Bryce Young, QB. If the above pick goes wrong, it’ll be because their young quarterback and 2023 first-overall pick bounces back from a tough rookie season. His QB rating over the course of the season was the sixth-worst among any NFL starter in the modern era with 15+ games played, but the Panthers weren’t situated to give him much help. Adding Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette as receiving options should provide a boost, and we’ll see if Canales can work his magic with another quarterback.
Betting projection: This is a team that has nowhere to go but up, right? Certainly, it would be hard to end up much worse than 2-15. Some potential upside can be seen in a Canales-Young connection here, and if they can get more out of their quarterback of the future, this could end up being one of the league’s most improved teams. Is that enough to put them into playoff contention? Almost certainly not, but a few stepping-stone moments along the way would be nice. Keep an eye on the rest of the preseason and maybe a week or two of regular season action, and you’ll have a good grip on whether it’s worth betting on rock bottom or maybe buying into youngsters like Young and Legette.
