As we draw closer to the 2024 NFL season kickoff, it’s time to break down one of the most intriguing divisions in the league, the AFC East. With Super Bowl contenders, pretenders, and full-on rebuilding squads all in the mix, there’s no telling how this season may shake out within the division.
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AFC North – AFC South – AFC East – AFC West – NFC North – NFC South – NFC East – NFC West
Defending division champions, the Buffalo Bills, will be hungrier than ever to once again finish atop the standings. After yet another heartbreaking defeat suffered in the playoffs, the Bills will once again attempt to get over the hump, this time without star wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
Potentially the team to beat in the AFC East, the New York Jets are finally healthy and we will finally see the heights that Aaron Rodgers can take this new-look crew. With several major offseason signings made to help bolster their Super Bowl chances, the Jets hope to make a massive improvement from their troubling 2023 campaign.
After stuffing the highlight reel routinely thanks to their electric offence in 2023, the Dolphins are back and scarier than ever as they look to score their first division title since 2008. With their star-studded cast of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Tua Tagovailoa all ready to make their way back to the postseason, this could be their best chance to finally put together a deep run toward the Super Bowl.
Rounding out the AFC East is the husk of a former divisional juggernaut in the New England Patriots. With a new head coach and quarterback at the helm, the Patriots will look to begin their rebuild this season, while still maintaining their competitive nature throughout the season.
There’s no shortage of action to be found in the AFC East this season, so be sure to check out our division betting preview to learn the latest odds, as well as get the best expert analysis ahead of the regular season kickoff.
Here’s our AFC East betting preview featuring odds from bet365.
Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl
Buffalo Bills
Super Bowl odds: +1200
To win conference odds: +700
Division odds: +170
Odds to make the playoffs: Yes (-170), No (+140)
Season win total: Over 10.5 (+130), Under 10.5 (-160)
2023 record: 11-6
Key additions: T La’el Collins, G Will Clapp, S Mike Edwards, LB Nick Morrow, WR Curtis Samuel, WR Mack Hollins,
Key subtractions: WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis, T Ryan Bates, C Mitch Morse
Most important game on the schedule: In Week 11, the Bills will look to exorcise some demons as they go up against the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs.
Having lost in the postseason to the Chiefs three times in the past four years, the Bills need to gain a confidence booster by defeating a top contender in the conference that seemingly has their number annually. If they have any hopes of making a deep postseason run, a victory over the Chiefs seems to be a necessary evil in the AFC.
This matchup will also come in the thick of the regular season, with a projected playoff outlook having begun to be formed. If the Bills are once again sitting on the bubble of .500, as they did in 2023, this matchup could be pivotal to their chances of making the 2024 playoffs.
Prop to watch: A Bills prop bet that you should keep your eyes on in 2024 is for Josh Allen to throw 30+ passing touchdowns. Currently priced at +130, this could be a hefty payday waiting to happen.
Having thrown for 30 or more touchdowns in three of his last four seasons, look for Allen to place an emphasis on his passing attack this season. Even when factoring in the absence of star wide receiver Stefon Diggs, Allen has no fear when launching the ball deep downfield.
With an eagerness to take risks and throw caution to the wind, the Bills will likely rely on some wild highlight reel passes from Allen in order to generate wins. In 2023, Allen ranked fifth in the NFL in passing attempts, exemplifying his active passing arm within the Bills’ offensive scheme.
Bank on Allen to eclipse 30 passing touchdowns this season as he connects with receivers in the end zone in order to score you your next big win.
Potential breakout player: With the Bills wide receiver room left with gaping hole after trading away longtime wideout Stefon Diggs, look for rookie receiver Keon Coleman to be thrust into the limelight in 2024.
Not just a viral sensation for his enigmatic personality, but a standout player on the gridiron. Able to cut through defences with ease thanks to his quick burst speed, Coleman may quickly grow into Josh Allen’s new favourite target.
While they may be big shoes to fill, look for Coleman to do an excellent job at establishing himself as the top receiver on the Bills, kickstarting his NFL success on a projected Super Bowl contender.
Betting projection: Oddsmakers and analysts alike seem to be high on the Bills in 2024, but I am going to have to zag on this one.
Sporting an inferior roster compared to years past, the Bills simply aren’t as good as they’re being made out to be. While Josh Allen is still one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, he simply doesn’t have the weapons around him to be successful. After trying to cut costs this offseason, the Bills have put together a ragtag budget squad in terms of skill players, a far cry from the talent they once possessed.
Additionally, one of the Bills best qualities from recent years has been their elite defence, something they certainly don’t possess in 2024. With a depleted squad facing various injuries as well as the insertion of new members of the roster, the Bills are going to have an incredibly tough time keeping points off the board this season.
With the competition having only grown in the AFC East in recent years, this could be the year the Bills finally get sent back to mediocrity. Fade the Bills this season and bet the Under on both their win total as well as for them to miss the playoffs outright at a juicy +140.
Josh Allen Over 25.5 Passing Touchdowns
New York Jets
Super Bowl odds: +2000
To win conference odds: +1000
Division odds: +180
Odds to make the playoffs: Yes -170, No +140
Season win total: Over 9.5 (-155), Under 9.5 (+125)
2023 record: 7-10
Key additions: DE Haason Reddick, WR Mike Williams, T Tyron Smith, DT Javon Kinlaw,
Key subtractions: TE C.J. Uzomah, DE Bryce Huff, DE John Franklin-Myers
Most important game on the schedule: Kicking off their 2024 season with their most important game of their schedule, the New York Jets are set to face off against the San Francisco 49ers under the bright lights of Monday Night Football.
With “Super Bowl or bust” expectations surrounding this Jets team, this will be a perfect litmus test to establish whether or not they’re the real deal. A key component of this will be the health and level of play of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, as he makes his return to the field after suffering a season-ending injury just minutes into his season opener against the Bills in 2023.
The 49ers are arguably the best team in all of football right now, so if they can remain competitive within this matchup, that could indicate that they are ready for a deep playoff push. If they are blown out of the water on the road in this clash, things could get murky for the Jets’ overall potential.
Prop to watch: Hoping to explode in production this season, Breece Hall should be considered a legitimate contender to take home Offensive Player of the Year honours in 2024.
Possessing world-class athleticism that allows for him to fly past defenders, Hall has showcased that he is nearly unstoppable once he gets going. Able to work effectively in the run game as well as in the passing attack as a receiver, Hall could be set for a career year playing alongside Aaron Rodgers.
While Hall has dealt with his fair share of injuries in his brief NFL career, if he can stay healthy throughout the majority of the upcoming season, there’s no doubt that he could string together a stellar campaign full of ample yardage and touchdowns.
At +1800 odds, there’s no shortage of value in this bet, making it an attractive look for anyone looking to get some skin in on an under-the-radar pick for the award.
Potential breakout player: After four lacklustre years with the 49ers, look for newly acquired defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw to break out in 2024 for the Jets.
A highly-touted prospect in the 2020 NFL Draft, Kinlaw was selected with the 14th overall pick. Since being brought into the NFL fraternity, Kinlaw has struggled to live up to expectations as a pro. With only five career sacks in 41 career games played, Kinlaw is set for a welcome change of scenery with the Jets.
With the ongoing contract disputes involving star pass-rusher Haason Reddick, the Jets will need to have somebody step up on the defensive line, with Kinlaw being a prime candidate. Being handed a massive opportunity to prove he is ready to play a pivotal role on contending team, look for Kinlaw to have his best season yet in 2024.
Betting projection: While misery and sadness have been a constant for Jets faithful in recent years, look for them to finally have something to be happy about as they contend toward the top of the AFC East.
A veteran team, possessing explosive young talent such as wide receiver Garrett Wilson and cornerback Sauce Gardner, the Jets could be a top team in the AFC this season. With oddsmakers currently listing their win total at 9.5 games, I would recommend smashing the Over on this betting market and backing the Jets to finally live up to expectations.
 | To win Super Bowl | To win division | To make the playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +1200 | +170 | -170 |
| New York Jets | +2000 | +180 | -170 |
| Miami Dolphins | +2500 | +200 | -150 |
| New England Patriots | +15000 | +2800 | +950 |
Miami Dolphins
Super Bowl odds: +2500
To win conference odds: +1400
Division odds: +200
Odds to make the playoffs: Yes -170, No +140
Season win total: Over 9.5 (-130), Under 9.5 (+100)
2023 record: 11-6
Key additions: DT Johnathan Harris, CB Kendall Fuller, S Jordan Poyer, LB Anthony Walker Jr., LB Jordyn Brooks, TE Jonnu Smith
Key subtractions: DE Christian Wilkins, CB Xavien Howard, LB Jerome Baker, LB Andrew Van Ginkel, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, G Robert Hunt
Most important game on the schedule: Looking to assert their dominance within their division, look for the biggest game of the Dolphins’ season to come in Week 2 as they play host to the Bills.
With the Bills having long had the Dolphins number, winning four straight games against the Dolphins including a NFL playoff victory in the 2022 Wild Card. As the Dolphins continue to build expectations for a deep postseason run, they will need to get the monkey off their back and best their divisional rival that has given them no shortage of grief in recent years.
By stringing together an impressive showing against the Bills early on in the season, the Dolphins may be able to create a gust in the winds of change, proving to the football world they aren’t the same ol’ Dolphins. Look for tempers to run high in this heated rivalry as they square off on primetime under the bright lights of Thursday Night Football.
Prop to watch: After exploding onto the scene in his rookie season last year, look for Dolphins running back De’Von Achane to continue building on his resume in the NFL as he records 10+ rushing touchdowns in 2024.
After hitting paydirt on the ground eight times in just 11 games played last season, it’s clear that the young back has a nose for the end zone. Possessing insane top speed, the blazing fast Achane is almost impossible to corral once he gets into open space.
While his rookie season saw him share the load in the backfield with surging veteran rusher Raheem Mostert, look for him to take command of the snap share this season as the 22-year-old establishes himself as the franchise running back this year.
At a profitable +250, hammer this betting market and watch as Achane quickly racks up 10+ rushing touchdowns, scoring you a sizeable payday in the process.
Potential breakout player: Having been a rock solid starting safety for the Dolphins since being drafted in 2021, look for Canadian Jevon Holland to breakout in 2024 as a top player at his position.
Having shown glimpses of elite talent, the 24-year-old British Columbia product has continued to grow each year he’s been in the NFL. Set to anchor the secondary alongside hard-hitting strong safety Jordan Poyer, look for Holland to step up in a big way for his team in 2024.
In a division that loves to go for big shots downfield, Holland will serve as a critical piece of the Dolphins lineup throughout the regular season and beyond. Expect big things from the Canadian this season as he looks to earn his first Pro Bowl nod this year.
Betting projection: While they cooled off toward the end of the 2023 regular season, look for the speed and skill of the Dolphins to shine bright in their upcoming campaign, earning them the top spot in the AFC East. With the Bills sporting a substantial worse roster than last year, and with several question marks still swirling around the Jets’ potential, the time to buy-in on the Dolphins to win their division is now.
Currently holding the third-best odds to win the division at +200, strike while the iron’s hot, and take the Dolphins to win the AFC East in 2024. Another advantageous betting market for bettors to wager on is the Over on their projected win total, as they have the eighth-easiest strength of schedule this season.
Tyreek Hill to Win Offensive Player of the Year
New England Patriots
Super Bowl odds: +15000
To win conference odds: +8000
Division odds: +2800
Odds to make the playoffs: Yes +950, No -2000
Season win total: Over 5.5 (+170), Under 5.5 (-220)
2023 record: 4-13
Key additions: WR K.J. Osborn, TE Austin Hooper, RB Antonio Gibson
Key subtractions: DE Matthew Judon, QB Mac Jones, T Trent Brown, S Adrian Phillips, CB J.C. Jackson, WR Devante Parker, RB Ezekiel Elliot
Most important game on the schedule: A key matchup in the New England Patriots schedule will come in Week 3 as they have their first taste of interdivisional play as they take on the New York Jets.
Facing a team chock full of experienced veterans, this will be a great proving ground opportunity for the young Patriots squad. By seeing how they can matchup and adjust to the strategy implemented by Jets Head Coach Robert Saleh, this will serve as a valuable learning experience for both players on the Patriots as well as their coaching staff.
By seeing how they stack up against one of the top teams in their division, this will provide much-needed insight into the current direction that the team is headed. If they are able to keep things close, or even pull of the upset win, the rebuild for the Pats may be over sooner than expected.
Prop to watch: Looking to take the reigns of the storied franchise and lead them into the next decade, third-overall pick Drake Maye could be set to make a massive impact on the Patriots’ 2024 season outlook.
One of the top prospects in the 2024 Draft, Maye had a superb college career with the UNC Tarheels, having passed for 3,608 yards in 12 games with 24 touchdowns. Currently in a heated battle for the starting quarterback position with a returning Jacoby Brissett, whether he is the starter come Week 1 or not, expect to see Maye at the helm within the first few weeks of the season.
At +2500, Maye has terrific value to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. If he is able to help keep the Patriots competitive, while putting up string passing numbers to boot, this could be a massive moneymaking opportunity for NFL bettors.
Potential breakout player: Primed to emerge as a top receiver with the Patriots this season, newly acquired, K.J. Osborn is set for a standout season in New England.
After spending his first three seasons with the Minnesota Vikings as a tertiary option within their offence, Osborn was always a dependable target from anywhere on the field. Possessing great size and athleticism, Osborn often wins fights in the end zone thanks to his sticky hands.
With no true alpha wide receiver on the Patriots roster, Osborne could quickly rise up the depth chart and emerge as the top target on the team this season.
Betting projection: While the Patriots are certainly heading in the right direction in terms of their rebuild, they are still set for a last-place finish within the AFC East. With too much inexperience and unproven play from top contributors, the Patriots are likely set to have more moral victories than actual wins on the field this season.
Their defence is still dependable and they have a few dangerous playmakers offensively in Rhamondre Stevenson and DeMario Douglas, making them a competitive squad to face on a weekly basis. With that being said, I believe the Pats are worth sprinkling some money on if you are able to tease the line, taking them to win Over 4.5 games in 2024.
They may not make the NFL Playoffs this season, but the Patriots may be back in postseason contention sooner, rather than later.
