2022 NFL Predictions – Against the Spread: Week 6

Three straight weeks of 8-8 has me feeling pretty even steven. Our record is still under water but some razor thin near misses last week let me know that we’re getting close to positive scores. That being said, was I way off on a couple of picks? I sure was. The Jaguars not even mustering a touchdown was fun for the whole family. Not to mention the field goal fest that was Colts v Broncos.

That’s not to say there weren’t picks to be proud of. Calling the Jets ownage of the Dolphins was nice. Predicting Week 5 would be the week the Lions’ offence finally hit a speed bump is sweet and my “Lock of the Week” Vikings pick coming good was the cherry on top.

Emotions sit at a 50/50 split much like the record, but the good vibes are just around the corner. Week 6 sees our first byes of the season, with the Lions, Texans, Raiders and Titans getting the first week of rest. Two fewer games to pick means fewer chances for bad picks right? RIGHT?!

We wont be taking any byes from making spicy NFL picks so let’s roll on and upgrade that record.

As always if you’re new to Against the Spread (ATS) betting in football you can refer back to our Week 1 page for a quick primer.

Week 5 Record: 8-8 🥉 / Season Record: 37- 43✌️

Without further ado, on to the Week 6 picks against the spread.

Thursday Night Game

• Washington Commanders (-1) @ Chicago Bears

Oof, bit of a stinker to start the week. TNF has a bit of a rep for featuring matchups no one would watch on any given Sunday and this one doesn’t do much to dispel that.

The Commanders don’t run and the Bears don’t pass (man do they not pass). Washington sits firmly in the bottom third of the league for rushing yards, attempts and scores. They are top tier in one rushing category; rushing fumbles.

Chicago meanwhile may need daily reminders that passing even exists. They sit dead last in yards, attempts and completions. In fact their number of passing attempts (88) is the fewest after 5 weeks since the early 80’s. I know 80’s retro is hot right now but jeez.

So how do you even pick this clash of the titans? Both teams are coming off back to back losses and looking to get back on track. If the Bears coaching staff lets Justin Fields throw just a few more passes in this one, at home, I see the arrow pointing towards Chicago. It’s a big if, but it’s all I’ve got.

Make sure to watch this one throughout the week before you bet, the line is razor thin.

Pick: Bears

• Bears 20 – Commanders 17

Sunday Afternoon Games

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Teeny tiny hands aside, I like Kenny Pickett. Seems like a good guy and a talented QB. That being said, serving him up to the Bills and the Bucs back to back is just cruel. Pittsburgh could have eased him in and really seen what they had in Pickett early in the season, instead they opted to start the inferior Mitch Trubisky (and make him captain). Now you can’t argue that they were protecting Pickett, that’s out the window if you turn around and give him these two starts to debut his career.

They’ll kill Kenny again this week, along with the rest of the Steelers.

Pick: Buccaneers Cover

• Buccaneers 38 – Steelers 20

• Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) @ New Orleans Saints

I don’t think anyone can rightly predict when Taysom Hill will go off and win a game on his own. The Saints’ sometimes QB/RB/Receiver/Kick Returner/Coach/Mascot threw for one score and rushed 9 times for 112 yards and 3 more TDs. I imagine opposing coach Pete Carroll finds that pretty unacceptable and I bet the Bengals coaching staff would too.

Both teams are 2-3 but Cinci is healthier and more importantly is not lacking anyone too important in the skill categories. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase return to their old stomping grounds of Louisiana looking to continue the Bengals’ slow and steady righting of the ship.

The Saints are too banged up and Taysom Hill will not be able to surprise another defence like he did last week. Unless of course he invents a new position none of us have heard of.

Pick: Bengals Cover

• Bengals 31 – Saints 27

• Indianapolis Colts (-2) vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Colts Cover

• Colts 24 – Jaguars 20

• Cleveland Browns (-2) vs New England Patriots

Pick: Patriots Beat the Spread

• Patriots 24 – Browns 21

• Green Bay Packers (-7.5) vs New York Jets

What jumps off the page for me here is the line being given to the Packers. Sure they’re returning to the friendly confines of Lambeau Field as the temperatures start to dip. Typically a slam dunk for the Pack, but are we all glossing over the fact that they’re coming off a very winnable game that they very much did not win against fellow New Yorkers in the Giants. Are we also forgetting that the Jets have looked if not downright competent than maybe even kinda good?

Look, picking against Green Bay at home straight up is folly, but the Jets will keep this one interesting, even in a losing cause.

Pick: Jets Beat the Spread

• Packers 30 – Jets 27

• Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) @ New York Giants

On to the aforementioned New York Giants, who are being a little disrespected here just like the Jets. Don’t get me wrong, the Ravens are a good team who narrowly dispatched a resurgent Bengals squad last week and are probably deserving of a better record thus far. The Giants meanwhile sit at 4-1 after a surprising victory overseas against the Packers.

I get that most folks don’t think the Giants are really a 4-1 team, you can nitpick their record and the lack of weapons at Daniel Jones’ disposal but the fact remains they ARE 4-1, they’ve found ways to win.

On top of all of all that, they’re at home this week. 5.5 Point dogs at home, it would certainly piss me off.

Pick: Giants Beat the Spread

• Ravens 20 – Giants 19

• Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) @ Miami Dolphins

Pick: Vikings Cover

• Vikings 34 – Dolphins 24

Sunday Afternoon Games

• San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons

Pick: Falcons Beat the Spread

• 49ers 27 – Falcons 24

• Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) vs Carolina Panthers

10.5 points is a scary line, no doubt about it. Last week we saw the Bills cover a huge 14 point line comfortably but this week’s biggest margin gives me pause.

The Panthers got roughed up so badly last week that HC Matt Rhule lost his job and there’s just something about that first game under a new coach that you don’t want to bet against. Call it a dead cat bounce, call it players seeing more opportunity for themselves, call it whatever you want it’s a voodoo I don’t want to mess with.

The Rams should win this game without much issue but I’m sensing a closer score line based on the aforementioned factors.

Pick: Panthers Beat the Spread

• Rams 29 – Panthers 24

• Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks

Pick: Seahawks Beat the Spread

• Seahawks 33 – Cardinals 27

• Buffalo Bills (-2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Ghost Pepper level spicy alert 🌶️🌶️🌶️

The Bills brass have long conspired to develop a team that can finally get past their AFC arch rivals in the Chiefs. Oh so close to doing it last year only to come up short once again, the Bills’ quest is starting to feel like Peyton Manning and his Colts’ interminable struggle to get passed Brady’s Patriots. Peyton and Indy eventually did get over that hurdle and won a championship as a reward. In fact the Manning v Brady clashes were often more interesting than any Championship games in those days and Allen v Mahomes is starting to feel similar.

To start the year, it certainly seemed that the Bills had done everything necessary to be KC, punctuated with the addition of Von Miller, someone who can add that little extra pressure in a game of inches. Since the start of the year however, we’ve seen KC making adjustments of their own. Behind an improved offensive line and without deep threat Tyreek Hill, Andy Reid has been more comfortable running the ball and letting Mahomes sit back in the pocket. When the game is on the line the Chiefs have a few plays in store they haven’t been forced to use yet and Mahomes is able to better orchestrate his vintage magic.

All that to say there are valid arguments for picking either squad this Sunday. As a result, the line is appropriately thin. The Bills were the presumptive Champions to start the year and have done little to convince anyone that was a mistake. The onus is on them to prove they can get over this hump and I believe they can.

Pick: Bills Cover

• Bills 34 – Chiefs 31

Sunday Primetime Game

• Philadelphia Eagles (-6) vs Dallas Cowboys

Not quite Ghost Pepper, but still pretty spicy, let’s call it Habanero 🌶️

The 5-0 Eagles (the only undefeated team left) host the 4-1 Cowboys on Sunday night. A big win for TV ratings.

Philly getting spotted 6 points here makes sense at first. Undefeated team at home vs a bitter divisional rival but look closer and you’ll see some up and down play of late from the Eagles and a Cowboys squad that has been sneaky good.

The Boys sit in the top 3rd of the league in every major defensive category and while Philadelphia joins them near the top in most, Dallas has a clear edge in points allowed. Whether it’s Cooper Rush or Dak Prescott (it’s looking like Rush) Dallas has the run game to make anyone look good.

Not to take anything away from the Eagles, they’re a great team no doubt about it, but my gut says the perfect record ends this week and the NFC East gets even more crowded at the top.

Pick: Cowboys Beat the Spread

• Cowboys 21 – Eagles 20

Monday Night Football

• Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) vs Denver Broncos

Pick: Chargers Cover

• Chargers 34 – Broncos 20

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