2022 NFL Predictions – Against the Spread: Week 13

Well, would you look at those numbers. Sparkling, effervescent, significant numbers! I must say I was a little surprised to tally up an 11-5 week, not that I wasn’t confident in my picks, it’s just that the NFL and it’s scorelines have been a bit of a bizzaro universe lately.

All that said, we have our heads well above water as we wade into a hopefully lucky Week 13.

As always if you’re new to ATS betting in football, check out our convenient primer on Point Spread Betting and take a look at our new and improved Parlay Betting Guide should the mood strike to combine some of these picks!

Week 12 Record: 11-5 🤑 / Season Record: 95-85 💰

Without further ado, on to the Week 13 picks against the spread.

Thursday Night Game

• Buffalo Bills (-4) @ New England Patriots

Hey, look at that, an interesting game on Thursday night. Jeff Bezos must have leveraged all of his black Friday profits for a chance at some viewers.

Both these teams played on American Thanksgiving and have the benefit of a full week’s rest, that being said, running back Damien Harris will not suit up for this one as the thigh injury he suffered last week has not quite healed. Harris gives the Patriots that pass catching element out of the backfield that Bill Belichick loves so much, and will make lead back Rhamondre Stevenson’s job all that much harder.

New England has a well-earned reputation of playing close, grinding games, and the betting line has reflected that. Steadily coming down from an opening line of six points, bettors are clearly anxious about this one. However, recent history between these two AFC East rivals might help assuage some doubts. The Bills have won four out of their last five meetings with the Patriots and the last two encounters were not close (33-21 and 47-17).

The Pats will cook a few things up and stay relevant, but the loss of Harris robs them of an x-factor that could have kept this one closer. The Bills will pull away as New England’s defence gets worn down.

Pick: Bills Cover

• Bills 31 – Patriots 21

Sunday Afternoon Games

• Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs New York Jets

If the line was a little bigger in favour of Minnesota, I’d be very tempted to go with New York here.

Jets quarterback Mike White played a tremendous game last week (315 yards passing, three touchdowns) replacing Zach Wilson. Wilson meanwhile, spent the majority of the game looking like an abandoned, rain-soaked puppy. It’s hard not to feel bad for Wilson, but it’s also hard to argue with the results of benching him. The Jets have a top-tier defence and need only steady quarterbacking to be relevant on any given day. Wilson’s inconsistency was his downfall and it’s hard to see him ever playing for the Jets again.

Minnesota, meanwhile, had a bit of a statement win of its own. After its absolute drubbing at the hands of the Cowboys in Week 11, the Vikings picked themselves up and won a fiercely-contested tilt against the Patriots, in primetime, on Thanksgiving.

It’s hard to know exactly how much of what we saw from White will remain this week. If that’s the real him week in and week out, then Christmas has come early for Jets fans, but let’s be realistic, when have Jets fans gotten anything but coal in their stockings?

I’ll bet on the known commodity here in the Vikings.

Pick: Vikings Cover

• Vikings 24 – Jets 17

• Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) vs Denver Broncos

It’s hard to know exactly what to make of the Ravens at this point in the season. Maybe they were victims of peak Trevor Lawrence last week, a Trevor Lawrence Jaguars fans haven’t seen often enough. Or maybe their defence is starting to show us signs that it is not the power unit of old. Whatever the truth is, we’ll have to wait until they face a real, actual, competent squad again. Because that ain’t happening this week.

The Broncos are headed for the glue factory at a break-neck pace. In what was a dysfunctional first year under centre for Russel Wilson a few weeks ago, is now an unmitigated disaster. Denver sits deal last in total touchdowns scored, three touchdowns behind the Houston Texans, a squad in the midst of a full rebuild.

This game is already decided as the Broncos folded their arms a long time ago. The question is: Can they hang around and spoil the Ravens’ cover? Not in this universe.

Pick: Ravens Cover

• Ravens 30 – Broncos 10

• Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons

It’s a bad time to be a running back named Harris.

Najee Harris like his Harris counterpart in New England, left his Week 12 game with an injury. The good news as of this morning, the injury wasn’t major. Harris will continue to be re-evaluated throughout the week and his status for this one is iffy.

That being said, I like the vibe of the Steelers right now. They’ve frankly had a rough schedule this year as six of their seven total losses have come against teams currently headed for the playoffs, and their four victories have come against opponents closer to themselves in the standings and in calibre.

This is a vibe pick for me as the line is a coin toss. I like Kenny Pickett more than I like Marcus Mariota, and even if Harris can’t suit up, I’ll still ride the vibes.

Pick: Steelers Cover

• Steelers 27 – Falcons 21

• Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) vs Tennessee Titans

Pick: Titans Beat the Spread

• Titans 24 – Eagles 21

• Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) @ Detroit Lions

A matchup between two 4-7 squads may very well be the game of the week. Both of these teams have that “win six straight and somehow make the playoffs” vibe to them right now.

Trevor Lawrence is buzzing and playing the best football of his pro career. Lawrence has thrown for 815 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions (which might be the biggest stat here) while chipping in 79 yards rushing over that span.

The Lions, meanwhile, nearly made it four straight as they pushed the Bills to the brink on Thanksgiving. Detroit has scored 102 points over its last four and its defence has looked halfway decent.

These are two teams who may have figured things out a little too late in the season, but the point is, they HAVE figured it out. These are the best 4-7 teams you’re likely to see go head to head and picking an outcome is a challenge. Jags running back Travis Etienne leaving last week’s game with a foot injury is maybe the slight edge we have here in picking the Lions. Although Etienne should be good to go, he’ll at best be playing hobbled.

Pick: Lions Beat the Spread

• Lions 31 – Jaguars 27

• Washington Commanders (-2.5) @ New York Giants

Pick: Commanders Cover

• Commanders 21 – Giants 17

• Cleveland Browns (-7) @ Houston Texans

It’s hard to believe the NFL didn’t plan for this. Deshaun Watson completes his 12-game suspension and returns to NFL action against his former team. This game will generate a lot of buzz for fans, but on the field, it’s hard to imagine the Texans putting up much of a fight.

There is, of course, the rust factor to consider with Watson, but Houston seems to have already packed it in. Losers of six straight, the Texans present an ideal punching bag for Watson to shake off the weeks on the sideline.

Pick: Browns Cover

• Browns 30 – Texans 17

• Green Bay Packers (-4) @ Chicago Bears

Pick: Packers Cover

• Packers 27 – Bears 17

• Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) @ Los Angeles Rams

Pick: Seahawks Cover

• Seahawks 27 – Rams 17

• San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) vs Miami Dolphins

This should be an electric matchup. Despite injuries on the o-line, Miami has the ability to put up big numbers, right there with San Francisco. This should come down to the wire and be a super entertaining tilt throughout. It feels like a field goal settles it.

Pick: Dolphins Beat the Spread

• 49ers 30 – Dolphins 27

• Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders

It feels like not so long ago that the Raiders were dead in the water. Now, two victories later and on the back of Josh Jacobs going all Superman on the league, it feels like a whole different team.

The Chargers, meanwhile, continue to be their wildly inconsistent selves, leaving it late against a Cardinals team that they really should have been able to put away.

Simply put, it’s impossible to bet against the play of Josh Jacobs right now, especially at home.

Pick: Raiders Beat the Spread

• Raiders 27 – Chargers 24

• Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals

A game that feels tailor-made for Monday Night Football, or at the very least primetime, instead rounds out Sunday’s afternoon games.

There’s been an unspoken benchmark since about the time Patrick Mahomes crash-landed into the NFL that a team really isn’t really a contender unless you can see them beating the Chiefs. Sure, the Chiefs lose games and aren’t champions every year, they’re just “that team“, the team that stakes a firm dividing line between the haves and have-nots.

For Cincinnati, and maybe more importantly Joe Burrow, to ascend to the everyday contender conversation it has to climb over that fence. Around 67% of experts picking this game do not see that happening for the Bengals this week … but I do. Cinci has won five of its last six and is firing on all cylinders, the onus is on the Bengals to step up and force themselves into the conversation. I think they do it.

Pick: Bengals Beat the Spread

• Bengals 30 – Chiefs 27

Sunday Primetime Game

• Dallas Cowboys (-11) vs Indianapolis Colts

Pick: Cowboys Cover

• Cowboys 30 – Colts 17

Monday Night Football

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) vs New Orleans Saints

What an ugly mess these two teams are.

Both teams came into the 2022 season with a measure of promise, but injuries, inconsistency, Andy Dalton, and a divorce later, both find themselves with losing records.

Whoever takes this one will have a brief moment to fool themselves into believing the season is salvageable, they’ll be wrong.

An ugly game for MNF after a great one on Thursday, the world’s gone topsy-turvy.

Pick: Saints Beat the Spread

• Buccaneers 20 – Saints 17

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