If the oddsmakers are correct, it’s going to be another very long season for the Toronto Raptors.
Expectations are incredibly low, both internally and externally, for Canada’s lone NBA team entering the 2024-25 campaign, with team president Masai Ujiri admitting the squad is in a “rebuilding” phase during Raptors media day on Monday. Ujiri didn’t use the word “tank” during his address, but he did admit that there is long-term value in having a losing season.
“You hope for the best, but we know — we all know — what reality is in this league, and the draft is a way for us to build teams and to acquire players, especially in a market like our market,” he said.
Those same sentiments were echoed by centre Jakob Poeltl.
“We’re definitely capable of winning some games (but) I know that’s not the main focus for us … this has to be a long-term project. I think we all know we’re not going to go attack the championship this year. It makes no sense for us to try to win every single game as much as we can and sacrifice development in terms of that,” he said.
The team skidded to a miserable 2-19 finish last season, but it didn’t result in a lottery pick as Toronto’s first-round selection was conveyed to San Antonio as part of the deal that brought Poeltl back for his second stint with the Raptors, who finished 12th in the Eastern Conference with a 25-57 record.
And things aren’t going exactly according to plan at training camp this week either. Rookie Ja’Kobe Walter, who the Raptors selected with the 19th pick in last June’s draft, is sitting out training camp due to a sprained shoulder, Immanuel Quickley has been sporting a wrist brace at camp, and Scottie Barnes has been excused for the start of camp due to a personal matter.
The Raptors have incredibly long +100000 odds to win the NBA title and +30000 odds to win the Atlantic Division. Taking either of these wagers is simply throwing your money away.
Toronto Raptors over 30.5 regular season wins
What are the odds?
Most online sportsbooks have the Raptors pegged at around over/under 30 wins this season with long +550 odds to make the playoffs (top-six finish in the East). ESPN’s season win projections have them finishing with an average of 33.9 wins, which would land the Raptors 10th in the East, good enough to be participants in the Play-In Tournament. Oddsmakers are giving Toronto around +125 odds to qualify for the play-ins.
| Eastern Conference Teams | Season Win Total (bet365) | Proj. Wins (ESPN) |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 58.5 (over -105, under -115) | 52.4 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 48.5 (over -130, under +100) | 50.6 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 50.5 (over -115, under -105) | 46.7 |
| Indiana Pacers | 47.5 (over +100, under -130) | 46.7 |
| New York Knicks | 54.5 (over -115, under -105) | 45.4 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 52.5 (over +100, under -130) | 45.2 |
| Miami Heat | 44.5 (over -105, under -115) | 44.9 |
| Orlando Magic | 47.5 (over -105, under -115) | 43.5 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 19.5 (over -105, under -115) | 36.9 |
| Toronto Raptors | 30.5 (over +100, under -130) | 33.9 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 36.5 (over -105, under -115) | 31.9 |
| Chicago Bulls | 28.5 (over +100, under -130) | 31.8 |
| Charlotte Hornets | 30.5 (over -105, under -115) | 29.4 |
| Detroit Pistons | 25.5 (over -115, under -105) | 28.8 |
| Washington Wizards | 21.5 (over +110, under -140) | 24.1 |
Really, these are the only two angles to consider from a team futures betting perspective this season with Toronto. BetMGM recently reported to Canada Sports Betting that Toronto is +100000 to win the NBA title at the sportsbook, accounting for less than 1% of tickets and 0.1% of the handle in the market.
Raptors player futures odds
There isn’t much to get excited about in Raptors’ players’ futures odds markets, either. You won’t find any Toronto players shortlisted for any of the major awards. In fact, the shortest award odds we could find here at Canada Sports Betting pertaining to a Raptors player were Scottie Barnes at +1600 (NorthStar Bets) for the Most Improved Player honours. Five other players have shorter odds than Barnes, with San Antonio Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama the favourite at +650.
Walter has long +5000 odds to capture Rookie of the Year honours, with Reed Sheppard the favourite at +500, followed by Canadian big man Zach Edey at +550.
Coach Darko Rajakovic is +5000 to win Coach of the Year, with only seven other head coaches having longer odds.
Scottie Barnes to win the Most Improved Player Award
Conclusion
The Raptors covered the spread just 44% of the time last season while playing to a 42-40 over/under record. They’ll be returning much of the same squad, minus guard Gary Trent Jr., so bettors can expect similar results this year. The balance of power in the East is relatively unchanged this year, with the Boston Celtics clearly sitting as the team to beat, while the Philadelphia 76ers (Paul George) and New York Knicks (Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns) have overhauled their rosters in an attempt to compete out of the conference.
A good season for Toronto can be viewed in two different ways. Firstly, if the roster remains healthy and some of their young players step forward, the Raptors could compete for a play-in spot and potentially qualify for the NBA postseason to create some buzz. Another potential scenario that could be viewed as a success in the long term includes the Raptors completely tanking this season with the hopes of obtaining a high pick in this year’s draft, which includes a class headlined by Cooper Flagg, who is drawing comparisons to Scottie Pippen.
There really isn’t a futures market standing out to back or fade at this point, but if you’re a fan of the Raptors and want to place a wager to root on for most of the season, why not consider Toronto at +125 odds to qualify for the Play-in Tournament. Always be sure to shop around and find the best odds on your futures wagers!
