The knockout stages of the NBA In-Season Tournament is finally here, and it’s been thrilling so far. The first two quarter-final games on Tuesday both ended in 10-point upsets, with the New Orleans Pelicans beating the Sacramento Kings 127-17, and the pre-tournament favourites, the Boston Celtics, losing 122-112 to the Indiana Pacers. The action continues on Wednesday, with a showdown between two of the most star-studded teams in the entire league.
LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the rest of the Los Angeles Lakers will host Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and the Phoenix Suns, with the winner going on to the semifinals. There is a lot of ground to cover in this one, including how both teams got here, any injury concerns, odds, and a few of our top bets to consider.
Bet on Suns vs. Lakers
PHX +1.5
LAL -1.5
Suns vs. Lakers odds
Suns Moneyline Odds | +105 |
Lakers Moneyline Odds | -125 |
Over/Under | 228 points (over -110, under -110) |
Spread | Suns -1.5 (-110) |
Odds To Win In-Season Tournament | Lakers +450, Suns +550 |
Time/Date | Dec. 5, 10:00 p.m. ET |
TV | Broadcast: SN1 Stream: NBA League Pass (How to watch the NBA in Canada?) |
About the Suns (12-8 SU, 9-10-1 ATS, 14-6 o/u)
Starting with a Nov. 5 win against the Minnesota Timberwolves, it has seemed as if the talented Suns have finally figured it out — almost. After starting the year 4-6, they won seven in a row, only to drop two games against the Raptors and Nuggets. This is a team that has huge upside, but hasn’t found a way to dominate just yet.
Also in Group A, the Suns went 3-1 to finish just behind the perfect Lakers. That effort was good enough to get them into the knockout stage against said Lakers. The two played one another for the second time back on Nov. 10, with the Lakers pulling out the thrilling 122-119 victory. They also met on Oct. 26, the Lakers walking away with the 100-95 victory.
Durant and Booker have been a two-headed monster for the Suns. The two are averaging a combined 48.9 PPG (Durant has 31, Booker 27.9) though Booker has played just 11 games so far. The offence is deep, with six players averaging at least 11.8 points per game.
That said, injuries have been a problem. Booker has missed time. Bradley Beal, the big offseason acquisition, has played in just three games. Nonetheless, on a good night, the Suns have more than enough firepower to beat anyone in the league, and they’ll be out for blood in Los Angeles tonight.
About the Lakers (12-9 SU, 9-12 ATS, 9-12 o/u)
If there is one thing the Lakers would still like to improve about their season, it’s consistency. Since their Nov. 21 win against the Jazz, they’ve alternated wins and losses over their last six games. Their last game was a 107-97 victory at home against the Rockets, and they’ll be hoping to make it two wins in a row against the Suns.
The Lakers came out of a talented Group A in the West, winning all four of their group stage games. They — along with the Kings, Pacers, and Bucks — are one of the only teams to keep a perfect record through the group stage.
Despite being less than a month away from turning 39 years old, James continues to be dominant. He leads the team with 24.4 points per game, steals per game (1.4), is second in assists per game (6.4), second in rebounds per game (7.6) and is second in blocks per game (0.8). He still contributes in all areas of the game, even if he is on load management watch these days.
Likewise, Davis has been very good. He leads the team in blocks per game with 2.8 and rebounds per game with 12.5 per game. He is just behind LeBron with 22.9 points per game, showing that he can still be the dominant power forward that everyone remembers. On any given night, the Lakers can play with the best of them.
LeBron James to post a double-double
+165
Injury concerns
The biggest injury concern for the Suns is still Beal. He played just three games for the Suns before hitting the injured list with a bad back. He is almost at the end of the three-week timetable out, however, so there may be talk of him returning should the Suns advance to the semifinals.
The Lakers, meanwhile, are pretty healthy. Gabe Vincent missed Saturday’s game against the Rockets but he is the only blemish on the report. Davis and James will have load management throughout the year but should be 100% for this matchup with the Suns.
Betting trends
- The Lakers have been streaky in regards to the over/under of late. After a five-game stretch from Nov. 15 to Nov. 22 hitting the under, the Lakers rattled off four overs in a row before just narrowly missing the 226.5-point over against the Rockets on Dec. 2. The over in this one is 228, which is well within range.
- The Suns, 9-10-1 against the spread, are as hot and cold as it gets. They have failed to cover in their last three games but covered in the four previous games, all of which were part of their aforementioned win streak. It was just the second streak of covers this season, the other being the first three games of the year.
- The Lakers have not had consecutive failures or successes covering the spread since they failed to do so in the first four contests of the year.
- The Suns have been very explosive offensively this season, and have a 14-6 record when it comes to the over. They have done so in three of their last five games and had a five-game over streak snapped with a 10-89 win over the Grizzlies on Nov. 24. They are second in the NBA in over/under percentage (70%) behind only the Indiana Pacers (16-2, 88.9%).
Player prop trends
- Durant’s points prop for the game is set at 28.5 (-110). He is averaging 31 points per game this year and has bested the 28.5 mark in seven of his last eight, not counting the game he didn’t play against the Knicks on Nov. 26. He scored 27 against the Grizzlies with the last failure to best 28.5 coming on Nov. 12 against the Thunder, when he scored 28 points.
- Though there was once a time when LeBron was a double-double machine, he has been anything but. As a matter of fact, he has done it just twice in his last 10 games, the last coming against the Thunder on Nov. 30. He is +165 to achieve the feat in this one, though the stakes are much higher than any other regular season game.
- Booker is underrated as a playmaker. His assists total is set at 6.5 (-110) and he is averaging 8.36 assists per game. He has been a little hit-and-miss, however, failing to hit two consecutive overs since he achieved the feat in back-to-back games against the Jazz in the middle of November.
- Looking at someone outside of the big two, Austin Reaves has his points + assists combo set at 17.5 (-115). He is averaging 18.43 combined points and assists per game, though he has been streaky. He hit the over four times in a row before turning in an under in three in a row. He is an even 5-5 over his last 10 games hitting this combo.
- Grayson Allen has quietly been surpassing his posted total for assists recently, clearing at least three dimes in six straight games while averaging 3.5 per game during that span. He’s -130 to record over 2.5 assists.
Wagers to consider
- Despite only having two double-doubles in his last 10 games, watch out for LeBron to achieve the feat in this one (+165). We already know he is going to score but don’t forget that he’s an elite defender as well. He could grab more than his fair share of rebounds, especially if the Suns are paying Davis extra attention on both ends of the floor.
- Durant has been a little cold when it comes to making three-pointers. Over his last five games, he has hit two or fewer three-pointers. However, he’s still the same old KD, and when he’s hot, he’s hot – he hit 10 over two games against the Jazz. Take him to make more than 2.5 threes (+115) in what should be a shootout.
- Though the Lakers are decidedly average when it comes to the over/under, the Suns are not. With that much offensive talent on the floor, 228 points seems a bit low for the over/under. Look for the two teams to obliterate the number, finishing somewhere in the 125-130 range each.
- It is too hard to ignore history with the Lakers. Each of their last three wins has been followed by a loss, and this season has been a story of inconsistency. Playing an elimination game in front of an expectant home crowd, this feels like it could be a trap for the talented L.A. team. The Suns are rich in weapons and looking to make this their tournament. We’re backing the Suns to follow their win against the Grizzlies with another win in L.A.