The Miami Heat will have a second chance to knock the Boston Celtics out of the postseason and punch their ticket to the NBA Finals on Thursday night.
Facing a 0-3 series deficit, Boston responded with a 116-99 victory in Game 4 in Miami to keep its season alive. The scene now shifts to Boston for Game 5, another do-or-die contest for the Celtics.
The Celtics are eight-point favourites and the total is set at 215.5 points.
Heat vs. Celtics odds
| Heat Moneyline Odds | +250 |
| Celtics Moneyline Odds | -310 |
| Over/Under | 215.5 points (over -110, under -110) |
| Spread | Celtics -8 |
| Series odds | Heat -275, Celtics +225 |
| Time/Date | Thursday, May 25, 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet Stream: NBA League Pass (How to watch the NBA in Canada?) |
All odds courtesy of 
Previous meetings
The Celtics snapped a five-game losing streak to the Heat on Tuesday and the game just fell under the 216-point total. The teams had combined to play over the total in the first three games of the series.
| Date | Home Team | Spread Odds | Result | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2023 (Game 4) | Miami | Heat -1 | 116-99 Celtics | 216 (under) |
| May 21, 2023 (Game 3) | Miami | Celtics -4.5 | 128-102 Heat | 214 (over) |
| May 19, 2023 (Game 2) | Boston | Celtics -10 | 111-105 Heat | 214.5 (over) |
| May 17, 2023 (Game 1) | Boston | Celtics -8.5 | 123-116 Heat | 211 (over) |
| Jan. 24, 2023 | Miami | Heat -2.5 | 98-95 Heat | 215 (under) |
| Dec. 2, 2022 | Boston | Celtics -7 | 120-116 Heat (OT) | 226.5 (over) |
| Nov. 30, 2022 | Boston | Celtics -9.5 | 134-121 Celtics | 225 (over) |
| Oct. 21, 2022 | Miami | Celtics -2 | 111-104 Celtics | 220.5 (under) |
About the Heat (12-5 SU, 12-5 ATS, 11-6 o/u)
Miami had won all six of its home playoff games before Tuesday’s loss to Boston and missed a chance to join the 1998-99 New York Knicks as the only No. 8-seeded teams to advance to the NBA Finals.
Historically, the Heat have recorded 19 playoff wins against Boston, tying the most victories against any opponent in franchise playoff history. Additionally, Miami has a perfect 15-0 series record when holding a 3-1 advantage.
The Heat’s bench is averaging 35.5 points, which is the third-highest average this postseason, and has outscored the opposing bench by a plus-161 margin. Miami’s reserves are shooting 39.1% from three-point range, including 47.9% from the field.
About the Celtics (9-8 SU, 9-8 ATS, 11-6 o/u)
Jayson Tatum wasn’t ready to fold and call it a season on Tuesday. He scored 25 of his 33 points in the second half, while erupting for 14 points in the third quarter to help Boston outscore Miami by a 38-23 margin in the frame. Tatum tied or led the game outright in points (33), rebounds (11), assists (seven), and blocks (two).
The rest of the Celtics followed Tatum’s lead, shooting 51.2% from the floor as a team and 40% from three-point range. Boston outscored Miami by 30 points from beyond the arc (54-24).
Boston also got meaningful contributions from two of its big men in Game 4. Grant Williams led Boston’s bench with 14 points and six rebounds and was a plus-15. Al Horford also had a solid all-around game, posting 12 points, seven rebounds, four assists, and a blocked shot.
Caleb Martin over 12.5 points
Notable injuries
Heat starting point guard Gabe Vincent rolled his ankle in Game 4 and is out. Expect Kyle Lowry to see an uptick in minutes.
The Celtics have no new injuries to report.
Betting trends
- The Heat are 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.
- The over is 5-0 in the past five meetings in Boston.
- The over is 10-1 in Miami’s last 11 road games.
- Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.
Player prop trends
- Caleb Martin made his first six shots from the floor on Tuesday and scored 14 of his 16 points in the first half to soar over his 11.5-point total. He’s scored at least 15 points in every game of the series and is averaging 18.5 points per game against Boston. His line is 12.5 points (-120 over).
- Martin is also connecting from long range with regularity. He’s drained at least two three-pointers in every game of the series and is averaging three per game. His line is 1.5 threes made (-140 over).
- Robert Williams has turned the ball over at least once in each of his last six games. He’s -135 to commit at least one turnover.
Wagers to consider
- SGP boost: Jimmy Butler to score 30 or more points, Butler five or more assists, Butler two or more three-pointers: +750. This looks like a spot for a vintage Jimmy Buckets eruption. He’s scored 30 or more points on five occasions during this postseason run and has at least five assists in every game of the series. If Miami allows Boston to continue to build momentum with another win, this series could very well go the distance. The Heat need to end this series now, and Butler knows it.
- Heat +8: -110. After being favoured by a point in Game 4, Miami is now an eight-point underdog on the road. The Heat have thrived as underdogs (9-2 ATS) during this postseason run. This should be a close game either way, so take Miami with the points.
- Derrick White over 2.5 threes made: +120. White has drained a trio of three-pointers in every game of the series and has hit that mark fives times over his last six games.
